1. Heavy rain showers at times, mainly Tuesday night through Thursday, with some flooding possible.
2. Cloudy all week.
3. No severe thunderstorms expected.
We may see a passing shower or two early this morning. HRRR model thru 8 AM:
Warmer, Rain Chance Monday
Humidity felt last night will return, bringing a breezy south wind and high temps near 60°, with a chance of hit-or-miss rain. Most locations will see under 0.10″ (which is not a washout), but a few locations may get a heavier shower and double that total. The NAM3 model only has only a few light showers sneaking in on Monday:
Monday’s severe weather outlook mostly only includes Texas and Oklahoma.
Windier, Warmer, Muggier Tuesday
Stronger south winds (gusting to 28 MPH), temps in the mid 60°s, and a chance of a passing, light shower for most of the day.
Tuesday night we start looking at the beginning of a heavier rain event.
Heavy Rain Late Tue/Wed Through Thursday
Winds high aloft will blow in from the SW, carrying with it plenty of moisture. At the surface, a front will set up camp in Middle Tennessee. These two forces will make it rain, with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall rates Tuesday night through Thursday. It should not rain the entire time, but you’ll need an umbrella for sure. Wed and Thu look like washouts.
Model blending indicates 1.5 to 4 inches of rain, which could cause some localized flooding issues. It looks like the greatest risk would be over our southern counties. This event is still a few days away, and higher rainfall totals are a possibility. Higher totals would certainly increase the flood risk, so we will need to monitor the midweek rainfall forecast closely.
The heaviest rain should be south of us, as shown by this WPC map valid Wed AM to Fri AM. But, we’re still going to get our share.
The latest single run of the Euro (the model with the best track record at this range) has 3.5″ or so for the entire event. The Euro ensemble mean for this event (a better version of the Euro) is just under 3″. The GFS has much less, around 1.5″. Remember all models are wrong, some models are helpful.
Rain is expected to taper off late Thursday night into Friday with dry high pressure taking control late Friday through Saturday.
Could it be? A dry Saturday? A lovely Easter? So far so good!