Rain should be here Monday.

HRRR model:

NAM3 model:

When: Although a few morning showers possible, the main rain event begins around 3-4 PM and should end a few hours later. ETA may need adjustment tomorrow morning, but models today have been consistent with these ETAs and ETDs. read more

Five years ago today, January 6, 2014, 4° was the low and 20° was the high.

Today, most of the US woke up above freezing. Where were the below-freezing temps? See the purple, below: the mountains out west and the upper Midwest. read more

Most people’s New Year’s Day is ruined by New Year’s Eve alcohol. Mine was ruined by two of these.

Had one at 3 PM, second one at 9 PM. I could not go to sleep until 2:30 AM. This morning I experienced a sleep-induced nerd hangover. read more

The Tornado Watch and storm threat is over.

Localized flooding with a rise in area creeks, streams, and rivers has been the legacy of the departed storm line. There were also a few wind-related damage reports. Check out a sampling of reports on #tSpotter. Or just this one: read more

From the Storm Prediction Center:

Primary threats include…

• A couple tornadoes possible
• Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

A Watch covers a large area and means Be Ready, conditions are favorable for a tornado.

A Warning covers a smaller area and means Immediately Take Action/Shelter, a tornado is occurring or imminent inside the warned area. read more

A Wind Advisory starts at 9 AM and ends at 6 PM. Winds will gust into the 30 MPH range, with scattered occasional gusts up to 45 MPH. With heavy rain last night, sick or shallow-rooted trees may come down should one of those 45 MPH gusts find them. These are winds independent of storms coming later today. read more

Rain ETA

Light rain is arriving now. On Twitter I’ll be covering the impact, if any, this rain has on the Titans game, so let’s just move on to New Year’s Eve, because there’s a lot to say about it. read more

Dear NSW,

Colts at Titans kickoff at 7:20 PM. I have tickets and my cousin Marbles is a degenerate gambler. Will it rain?

/s/ Fish

The truth is weather models still disagree, but if we look through them we’ll get an educated guess.

• The Euro model thinks it might start very lightly raining in the fourth quarter, but probably not.
• The HRRR model (my go-to model at this range, but it’s not perfect) thinks rain will arrive in the second half, not really effecting field conditions too much, but enough to make the ball slippery.

• The NAM3 model is the rainiest (as usual, it loves to say Watch Out! Gonna Rain!). Here it is, below, from 7 PM to 11 PM tonight, delivering rain throughout the game:

By mid-afternoon we’ll have a good idea which model will land closest to the truth when we look on radar to our southwest and see how close the rain actually is to us. read more

It was not earthquake. It was lightning!

At 3:39, multiple lightning strikes hit simultaneously around Nashville causing a very loud thunderous roar from Goodlettsville to Nolensville to Brentwood. Here are some still shots of the strikes from our cameras downtown, all taken from just a few frames of video. ^al pic.twitter.com/rlTfGzeg2x read more

Executive summary, because you’re busy:

• Nice Wednesday
• Rain Thursday through Friday Morning: 1″ to 1.5″ Total
• Music City Bowl & Colts/Titans Probably No Rain But There’s Still Uncertainty

Wednesday

Unseasonably warm temps ahead!

Rain, Maybe Storms, Thursday – Friday

Start Time: Thursday morning, as light rain. Through the day rain will be off and on.

The heaviest rain will come in a line, expected Thursday late afternoon or early Thursday night. Below is simulated radar (NAM3) showing the heaviest rain rolling in around 5-6 PM. read more