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Fires can spread quickly this afternoon.
Dewpoints are likely to drop into the mid 50s later today, and with winds speeds picking up and pretty dry ground conditions, marginal fire danger is likely this afternoon. •NWS-Nashville
This isn’t just for those burning trash or whatever in the country. Subdivision fires happen; a few summers ago someone tweeted about a fire that torched several lawns. Maybe don’t toss your lit cigarette. And when you’re doing your science experiment today (admit it, that’s what you’re doing today) be careful plz.
Otherwise hot (high 91°) not sweltering Sunday, yaya.
Rain Monday is “suss,” as the kids say. Means suspect.
Officially NWS-Nashville thinks 0.03″, but that’s on average. Your backyard will vary. Rain scattered and there’s not much of it. Does not look like one of those “everyone gets in on it events,” but the models vary sufficiently and we’re more than 24 hours away, so as usual, this may change.
Here’s the data if ya want it.
First we have the NAM3 model with weak showers approaching then . . . you guessed it . . . disappearing on arrival!
Here the Euro model shows, you know, I mean, I guess this is some rain? We’ll take it?
Third/finally, the HRRR model spreads some rain in, but not for everyone.
Today (Sunday) will be the 27th consecutive day with 0.01″ of rain or less, the 12th straight day of no measurable rainfall.
Alert radar watchers may see rain coming down I-24 this afternoon. Expect it to nerf before it gets here, except maybe provide clouds. The HRRR model illustrates this:
GETTING MUCH HOTTER, HUMID
High temps mid 90°s every day this week. We may reach the upper 90°s a few times. Humidity will be reasonable (low/mid 60°s dewpoints) today and Monday.
Tuesday the dewpoint increases sweatily to upper 60°s, near 70°. Combine that with mid 90°s temps and the heat index will reach at/over 100° by mid/late afternoon each day this week, beginning Tuesday.
For example, Tuesday if we hit the forecast highs of 96° temp and 69° dew, the heat index will be 102°.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES
Tuesday, increasing humidity will make afternoon/early evening showers and regular summertime pop up storms possible. Models disagree about whether those chances are better Tuesday or Wednesday. Either way there is no reason to think it will rain much at any time this week.
No one expects rain Thursday or during the day Friday.
However, late Friday night into Saturday, a front approaches.
[W}e could see some storms and showers Friday night and Saturday as the front approaches, it`s not looking like we`ll see much relief from the hot temperatures. • NWS-Nashville
This rain event should weaken on approach. Early, unreliable rain estimates do not suggest this will rain out any outdoor activities. Next weekend looks hot and humid.
Euro ensemble model data covering the next 10 days shows hot temps and very little rain:
Check back later this week when forecast data improves.
At 8:25 AM, BNA’s temp was 68°, dewpoint 63°. Last night, a north breeze blew in drier air, so today we get a slight break in humidity, with a high temp around the mid 80°s. No rain, no problems.
Doesn’t feel Bob Ross outdoors good but if wanting to do something outside today or tomorrow is your day. Next week looks awful.
Same sticky-yet-tolerable Saturday humidity, upper 80°s, without rain.
Reminder:
It's still Summer. Fall begins September 22. We will put a stamp on all "y it soooo hot" tweets on September 23.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) September 6, 2019
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Monday temps leap to 95°, but humidity tolerable. Still, 95° is 95°, not a swamp heat but real talk that’s not a dry heat either.
Tuesday’s high is 97°; by the afternoon the dewpoint should rocket into the mid 60°s ending up somewhere in the upper 60°s. Straight steam bath weather, you do not want to be dehydrated and outside.
Swampy Wednesday. Dewpoint close to or at 70°. With that means more clouds so the high temp is “only” 95°. This heat/humidity combo will continue at least through Friday.
Remember these are expected high temps in the shade. Outside the shade the temp is, ummmm, you know.
Wait until Wednesday for a low chance of rain. We may see a heat of the afternoon/early evening shower pop up.
Isolated storms will once again be a possibility on Wednesday. Chances will remain low Thursday through Friday, but there could be a stray daytime shower or storm any day in the second half of the work week. • NWS-Nashville
Possible it was just me, and I was smelling a mix of construction stench, bachelorette boots, my upper lip, scooter tires, and restaurant exhaust. That this combination makes a corn dog smell is either a local/personal olfactory indictment or some pedal taverner features a corn dog and whiskey cruise which sounds amazing.
Shoutout to Corn Dog 7, mall food court eatery legend.
Ketchup with the corn dog is unforgivable. If you must condiment a corn dog, drop the yellow on it.
BNA hit 86° and the dewpoint was 60°, that’s unhumid for early September. Sure it could be cooler but it’s still summer until September 22, so stop complaining, Trevor.
Copy today and paste it to Friday.
One big exception.
Friday night footballers should start hydrating now, watch what the dewpoint does Friday from 4 PM (64°) to 7 PM (68°) to 10 PM (70°). Don’t cramp.
Clear eyes, not enough water, you’ll lose.
Sure we bake to 86° Saturday and 91° Sunday (earlier I said Monday, I blame corn dogs), but the dewpoint should knock back down to the low 60°s.
Low to mid 90°s next week, with rising humidity each day. Gross.
Next rain chance maybe middle of next week, with humidity and heat cranking we may see showers bubble up. They’ll have to defeat high pressure, so rain chances in your yard aren’t great.
My grass is getting brown but technically no drought is underway. We’re only 5 days into September but no rain this month, 0.49″ is normal. For the year we are 14.66″ above normal thanks to February which was crazy. The new drought monitor came out today and we’re clear:
BTW Corn Dog 7s still exist, you’re welcome.
Saturday 91°.
Sunday 92° but a bit sweaty, mid 60s dewpoints.
Monday 91°, upper 60s dewpoints.
Tuesday & Wednesday 93°, upper 60s dewpoints.
It’s still summer.
Some nerd is going to tell you tomorrow is the first day of fall, “meteorological fall.” I usually side with meteorology nerds BUT NOT THIS TIME, TREVOR, there is nothing “fall” about September 1. Meteorological Fall is Fake Fall. It’s useful for climate stats but nothing else.
Fall begins September 23 and if you disagree I will fight you over it. I’m often at the Turnip Truck.
None Saturday (today).
Sunday afternoon rain is unlikely. Early this morning there was talk that maaaaaybe some rain/storms could come down I-24, but nah.
I mention this only because we don’t hide data from you. Below NWS-Nashville agonized over the uncertainty, the daily beautiful occupational hazard:
Models are picking up on this (rain) solution a bit more each run, but still not confident enough to have mention of showers Sunday afternoon [because] the consensus [of weather models] keeps the mid state dry. Would not be surprised to see a few isolated showers Sunday afternoon, so will keep an eye on [the weather models] to see if trends are upward in regards to Sunday [rain chances].
Sounds like a locust swarm or volcano eruption. It’s not.
It’s a Code Orange Health Advisory, otherwise known as being a Tennessee Volunteer football fan (save us, Jeremy Pruitt), but really, it’s issued by the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation and:
means ground level Ozone concentrations within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. The general public is not likely to be affected. Active children and adults, and people with a respiratory disease such as Asthma, should limit prolonged outdoor exertion. For additional information…visit the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation site at http://www.tennessee.gov/environment.
Not everyone will get a rain or storm today. Models have different ideas.
Honestly, it looks meh, but we may see afternoon action.
Rain accompanied maybe by a lightningstorm is most possible between 4 PM and 8 PM, but not affecting everyone, so predicts the HRRR model:
The NAM3 model’s prediction machine thinks the rain and storms will nerf out, none of us getting much if anything:
Which model is right? That’s like asking whether Ned from accounting or Angela from HR knows how many TD passes Titans QB Marcus Mariota will throw this year. Ned and Angela are Titans season ticket holders. They are not dating, even though they take “separate” lunches AT THE SAME TIME and no one ever runs into them. Ned thinks Mariota will throw 22 TD passes and Angela, a fellow native Hawaiian, thinks Marcus tosses “at least 30.” Ned’s pessimism comes from the Lewan 4 game suspension. Angela’s confidence in Brett Kern is so great that she’s sure Mariota will have excellent field position “during his one punt per game.”
Both have educated opinions, neither flawless.
Future prediction is hard, but it’s not like we’re all totally helpless to understand what may happen in the future.
Most outdoor plans will be fine, but be prepared for the potential for a passing shower or thunderstorm with heavy downpours, especially in and around Nashville Metro. (NWS-Nashville).
NWS-Nashville says the heat index will pass 100° Sunday through Tuesday.
Rain chances decrease this weekend but excessive humidity and pop-up storms may occur mid/late afternoon lasting into the early evening. Where? Place your bets.
Weekend dewpoints will be borderline Oppressive, definitely not the day you want to dress up as Barney for an outdoor birthday party, which I once did in these temps.
(It was a long time ago!).
(Pro-tip: Barney cannot safely operate a 1998 Mitsubishi Eclipse).
Speaking of OPP, shout out to the best traffic enforcement department in the USA.
Do not leave kids, pets, in parked car.
Tuesday we may need a Heat Advisory for heat index approaching 105°.
Tuesday & Wednesday.
Rain chances increase on Tuesday and Wednesday . . . with a frontal boundary approaching. GFS and Euro [models] are not in agreement on how fast the front drops south. Kept rain chances below 60%-70% for now until models are in better agreement with the frontal timing. (NWS-Nashville).
No specific reliable ETAs due to model uncertainty and storm setup. But we have an idea: around 1 PM to 5 PM.
Flexible plans recommended in case that changes. If you don’t think it may change, welcome to Nashville! You must be new.
Neither tornadoes nor especially strong winds expected (winds 40-50 MPH max).
Slow movement of the storms is expected again, so localized flooding is possible. As usual with summer storms, a few strong wind gusts will develop – perhaps enough to blow down some limbs, but we do not expect widespread or organized severe weather. (NWS-Nashville).
The nasty stuff is gone.
The HRRR model shows a few light showers coming thru late tonight. Clear by sunrise.
Watch the driest air (in blue) come in overnight, then go west toward Memphis, what a tease:
Excellent.
Check it out, a high of 82°F.
Sweet fifty-something dry dewpoints will tease us with Fall. Confused biological clocks will prompt football yearning.
This weekend will be a nectar among the bland. An oasis in the desert. A brownie after asparagus.
Humidity returns. Normal risk of afternoon/early evening pop ups. Not a big deal.
Check back for updates, and be sure to follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx!
