Initial, big snowflakes now falling early this evening will melt on above-freezing surfaces. Temps are supercold and below-freezing above 3,000 feet. Temps are above-freezing below 3,000 feet. Flakes lack the time to change back to sleet or rain by the time they hit the earth. Splat. Melt.
Author: David
Friday Night - Saturday Morning Snow: What Time, How Much, Accumulation Potential, & No, We Aren’t Sure About Much Of This.
Doesn’t Look Good, Snow Fans
Confidence is “low to medium” (NWS-Nashville) in forecast accuracy for snow Monday.
Variables include:
- Temperatures. South of us, snow is likely Monday morning. We may be too far north to get snow. Snow may not even extend into Will Co, much less Nashville, but it’ll be close. If snow gets far enough north, by mid-morning surface temps may warm into the mid-30s, causing any flakes to splat:melt. It may even get warm enough to change snow to rain. Noon temps around 35, upper 30s possible Monday afternoon.
- Moisture. Most moisture will be well south of us. We will get the northern edge. If we had more moisture incoming, temps wouldn’t rise as fast. But moisture is limited, so those at elevation (hills, on bridges and overpasses) may be the only spots cold enough to collect snow. There’s just not enough “stuff” there to tap to make a good snow event.
NWS-Nashville make no changes to its snow total forecast. Under a half inch, which includes us getting nothing. Most of those north of I-40 get shut out:
Severe Storm Potential Friday Mid-Morning to Early-Afternoon.
Wet New Year’s Eve.
2020 began with heavy rain. 2020 will end with heavy rain.
First, a minor event tonight.
Light rain tonight, ETA a few hours before midnight. Not a heavy event (that’s Thursday). Tonight’s rain will be off and on, scattered, and should end around sunrise Monday. Was hardly worth mentioning but here it is. HRRR model below.
Happy Festivus Everybody! Updates on Wind, Rain, Snow, Flurries, Cold. Y’all. The Cold!
Flocked Once, Flocked Again? Probs Not This Week, a discussion.
Rain This Morning, Possible Storms w/ Low Probability Damaging Wind/Tornado Threat This Afternoon.
It’s Not Time To Panic/Party but Behold a Blog about Tornado and Snow Chances.
NWS-Nashville writes a technical long form forecast discussion twice a day, every day, 365 days a year. In some years 366 days a year. One is published sometime between 2 AM and 4 AM, another 12 hours later. These long form discussions cover the next seven days. NWS-Nashville is the essential weather infrastructure in Middle Tennessee. Without them, the entire weather enterprise collapses. #Thanksgiving.