Rain ended after lunch. Instead of dry weather and a stiff wind, we got a steady drizzle for several hours.

Drizzle wet the streets.

Temps are dropping and should reach freezing everywhere in Davidson and Williamson Counties tonight. Black ice will form in spots, regardless of elevation. Many places will drop to 30°, some may get colder. read more

At 7:34 PM Tuesday night light precip crept into West Tennessee. That blue precip is rain, the pink is frozen precip.

That rain will spread into west and middle Tennessee all day Wednesday. We should be in the “just rain” zone for most of the day Wednesday. read more

Will and I discussed what Blerg really means.

The dictionary definition of Blerg is (1) temps under 40°, (2) no sun, and (3) no snow. This dictionary lives on our timeline, no where else, sorry Miriam, not sorry Webster. read more

Models have been consistent. Snow incoming after midnight tonight. The HRRR model:

Falling snow, and accumulating snow, are two different things.

What We Think (right now)

The current expectation is nothing to a half inch:

Snow falling is more likely than snow accumulating. read more

Don’t Burn Stuff

Relative humidity will drop near/below 45% Saturday morning. That’s really dry for us. Fires may be uncontrollable because south winds will blow 10-15 MPH.

Smoldering smokesticks staying in your ride and not on the grassy median would be lovely thanks. read more

The U.S. West Coast is getting mudslides and epic snowfalls. It’s supercold in the northeast.

Here, not so much.

Saturday Afternoon Rain?

Models disagree about Saturday afternoon. Most think a rain wave will pass by but dry air will gobble it up the drops before they reach the ground. read more

Initial, big snowflakes now falling early this evening will melt on above-freezing surfaces. Temps are supercold and below-freezing above 3,000 feet. Temps are above-freezing below 3,000 feet. Flakes lack the time to change back to sleet or rain by the time they hit the earth. Splat. Melt. read more

Tornado probability remains 2% Friday morning. Meaning, two percent chance of a tornado happening within 25 miles of you. That’s from the Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging thunderstorm wind probability remains at 5%. read more