Rain ended after lunch. Instead of dry weather and a stiff wind, we got a steady drizzle for several hours.
Drizzle wet the streets.
Temps are dropping and should reach freezing everywhere in Davidson and Williamson Counties tonight. Black ice will form in spots, regardless of elevation. Many places will drop to 30°, some may get colder.
At 7:34 PM Tuesday night light precip crept into West Tennessee. That blue precip is rain, the pink is frozen precip.
That rain will spread into west and middle Tennessee all day Wednesday. We should be in the “just rain” zone for most of the day Wednesday.
Will and I discussed what Blerg really means.
The dictionary definition of Blerg is (1) temps under 40°, (2) no sun, and (3) no snow. This dictionary lives on our timeline, no where else, sorry Miriam, not sorry Webster.
Models have been consistent. Snow incoming after midnight tonight. The HRRR model:
Falling snow, and accumulating snow, are two different things.
The current expectation is nothing to a half inch:
Snow falling is more likely than snow accumulating.
Relative humidity will drop near/below 45% Saturday morning. That’s really dry for us. Fires may be uncontrollable because south winds will blow 10-15 MPH.
Smoldering smokesticks staying in your ride and not on the grassy median would be lovely thanks.
The U.S. West Coast is getting mudslides and epic snowfalls. It’s supercold in the northeast.
Here, not so much.
Models disagree about Saturday afternoon. Most think a rain wave will pass by but dry air will gobble it up the drops before they reach the ground.
Initial, big snowflakes now falling early this evening will melt on above-freezing surfaces. Temps are supercold and below-freezing above 3,000 feet. Temps are above-freezing below 3,000 feet. Flakes lack the time to change back to sleet or rain by the time they hit the earth. Splat. Melt.
It’ll probably rain a little before midnight tonight, no big deal.
Models indicate snow Friday night lasting off and on overnight into Saturday morning.
Rain is expected to change to snow Friday night between 9 PM and midnight:
Confidence is “low to medium” (NWS-Nashville) in forecast accuracy for snow Monday.
Variables include:
NWS-Nashville make no changes to its snow total forecast. Under a half inch, which includes us getting nothing. Most of those north of I-40 get shut out:
Tornado probability remains 2% Friday morning. Meaning, two percent chance of a tornado happening within 25 miles of you. That’s from the Storm Prediction Center.
Damaging thunderstorm wind probability remains at 5%.
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