Rain should change to snow Sunday right around sunrise, or a few+ hours after sunrise, and when it does surface temps are probably going to be at or above freezing. HRRR thinks the temp’ll be around 34° to 35° as the snow is falling.
Author: David
Winter Storm Watch Saturday Night to Sunday Night, Fresh Deets
an essay on the “probably a snowstorm” coming our way this weekend
on presnow days like this I spend a few hours looking at models and reading forecast discussions. i do one other thing, and that’s trying to keep my brain brew cold, which means i’ll spend 15 minutes beating up my somehow iced over fridge icemaker, picking up the ice pieces that fall on the floor from all the pounding. i don’t mind admitting to you that when i am beating up the machine i am sometimes definitely cursing at it. the forecast and the ice machine are a mess.
Sunday Snow Because Why Not
NEW YEAR’S DAY RECAP
Instability (not enough) – shear (way too much) combo was off today. Storms rotated and we had cause for the one tornado warning in west Williamson County, but by the time that storm got to the Will Co line it lost concerning tight rotation. We think Ned’s cap hung on just long to keep storms from exploding over 20kft, so we escaped New Year’s Day unscathed.
NYE: Rain, Severe Storms? NYD: Rain, Severe Storms? Titans Game: Very Cold, Rogue Flakes Splat Melt
This is a complicated forecast that we make easy lol. Let me start off saying we’re relying on the HRRR model. I point this out because there are so many Somewhat Different Ideas from other weather models about Friday and Saturday. Were we to talk about all those that would make this weather briefing more annoying than it already is. I say that to ask you to please check back in the morning because timing and hazards may change, and I think the data might give you a clearer picture of what’ll be incoming. Saturday looks worse than Friday, generally speaking. I’m hoping this will at least help you plan your weekend.
NYE & NYD Storm Events, Then We Get Very Cold
Wednesday’s Severe Weather Potential, An Update, Presented With Hope, But Without Agenda (mostly?)
I Wrote This About Wednesday and NYE/NYD and then a Weather Phenomena That The Editor Bleeped
Below the HRRR model shows rain off and on through Tuesday night, not much, mostly Monday night and Tuesday, no washout.
Then Wednesday even more rain as seen by the Euro model below.
Now this may be a washout. Perhaps even thunderstorms but the severe threat is more likely well south of us as depicted by SPC:
Watching - But Not Worrying About - Wednesday
Winds will calm down this afternoon and tonight. 76° today would be the record high for Christmas, set 5 years ago.
Few raindrops may cross by tonight. Inconsequential. Alter no plans. HRRR model:
Monday and Tuesday may bring showers. Models think just rain, off and on, more Tuesday than Monday. Nothing to worry about either day.
Windy, & About Those Rumors of Bad Weather Next Week
Hello, dear reader, Merry Christmas Eve. My father is in the other room, appalled while watching The Office for the first time, comedy is occurring here.
But first.
Did you spend Eighty Thousand Dollars on a Christmas vehicle? Big red bow on it? Got plans for a cheesy reveal featuring your perfect teethed fam? And you hatched and executed said plan without saying anything to your spouse about it? Well if you have that thing parked for the Big Reveal near a roof sheltering children, the wind is coming for you my friend, strong enough to blow four of Santa’s reindeer and the front right side of his sled through its rear window, windblown by an act of justice, comedy, or tragedy, and a moment of introspection surely awaits.