Tonight’s 0z run of the HRRR model thinks beginning Tuesday after lunch an atmosphere somewhat capable of producing a tornado or two, damaging straight line winds, and maybe even hail will settle in. The severe storm capability should linger into the evening and end before bedtime if current model data has it right.
Those of you who live near fast rising creeks and streams, and near low-lying usual spot flood areas, need to spend the weekend getting ready for two potential flooding events next week (Tuesday-Wednesday & Thursday-Friday).
A MIGHTY WIND
Before the storms expect south winds sustained 20-30 MPH, with gusts to 45 MPH. Loose objects will be relocated.
MORNING RAIN
This should not be a big deal. Insufficient CAPE to power storms will be the reason.
Blerg today.
We got to talk blerg today. Blerg means no snow, no sun, temps under 40°. I issued a Blerg Watch today (conditions favorable for blerg) but not a Blerg Alert (blerg in progress) because we may see a few flakes this afternoon, the sun may show up briefly this afternoon, and some of us may actually hit 40°.
A few flurries are possible Tuesday morning. You can see them at the end of the 12z HRRR model run.
I’ll tweet the 18z run when it comes out in a few hours. Think these will be inconsequential if they happen at all — the precip isn’t on other models. Surface temps should be at least 3° (probably more) above freezing. Splat:Melt. No party, no worries.
Snow should, this afternoon, fall atop the rainy, slushy, mixyfrizzy precip we got this morning. Will Co got way more of the frozen stuff than Nashville. Will Co was colder at the surface and aloft, and Will Co got the heaviest precip bands.
Rain should change to snow Sunday right around sunrise, or a few+ hours after sunrise, and when it does surface temps are probably going to be at or above freezing. HRRR thinks the temp’ll be around 34° to 35° as the snow is falling.
By the time all the good model data comes out it’ll be way past midnight. So much so I considered not writing this blog. But obviously I went ahead with it because we have some new, good models in, most notably the Was Causing Forecast Problems Earlier But Has Straightened Out HRRR.
on presnow days like this I spend a few hours looking at models and reading forecast discussions. i do one other thing, and that’s trying to keep my brain brew cold, which means i’ll spend 15 minutes beating up my somehow iced over fridge icemaker, picking up the ice pieces that fall on the floor from all the pounding. i don’t mind admitting to you that when i am beating up the machine i am sometimes definitely cursing at it. the forecast and the ice machine are a mess.
NEW YEAR’S DAY RECAP
Instability (not enough) – shear (way too much) combo was off today. Storms rotated and we had cause for the one tornado warning in west Williamson County, but by the time that storm got to the Will Co line it lost concerning tight rotation. We think Ned’s cap hung on just long to keep storms from exploding over 20kft, so we escaped New Year’s Day unscathed.
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