Growing szn is “effectively” over. No more Frost or Freeze Warnings. We’ll freeze again this fall/winter for sure. It’s just that there will be no more official frost or freeze warnings from NWS until next fall 👇🏽 read more

BNA did not hit freezing this morning but BNA runs hot. Most dropped unburrrr1️⃣ 30°. My backyard went sub 29°. Expect a repeat Thursday morning then temps rise 👇🏽

Rain?

Tuesday Oct 25 to Weds Oct 26 begins next rain chance. Euro mean says around 0.5″ or so total by late next week. read more

BNA should hit freezing Wednesday morning.

• Your backyard will probably dip into the mid/upper 20°s around sunrise Weds morning. (BNA runs hot on cold fall/winter mornings).
• Thursday morning: also freezy.

Warm up weekend, near eighty.

No rain in sight. The Mississippi River at Memphis is at its lowest depth since 1954.

Drought isn’t just local. Much worse west. Mississippi River receiving little water. read more

• Protect plants and pipes.
• Freezing mornings Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
• Temps should drop into the upper 20°s for most of us.
• Coldest Wednesday morning.

A Freeze Warning is in effect officially from 1 AM to 9 AM Tuesday. Coldest temps will happen around sunrise.

Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. read more

Little bit of rain coming today, meh.

• off and on and light
• about a tenth of an inch total
• “heaviest” this afternoon/earlier tonight, maybe a lightning strike or two
• I’m keeping my maybe a little soggy, so what plans, this is meh, here’s the HRRR because that’s what we do:

⚠️ Early Tuesday morning Freeze Watch . . .

Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. read more

Probably won’t rain today. Not totes sure about that but I’m keeping my outdoor plans.

• A few models think some of us will see a few light mid afternoon showers.
• Most models think no rain.
• Latest HRRR run has it all just missing us 👇🏽

Rain expected Sunday.

• Off and on.
• Average rainfall 0.1″ won’t dent our drought.
• Some areas should get more than 0.1″, others less.

• Few thunderstorms possible (more likely in the afternoon) but nothing severe.
• Meh.

Frozen Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday mornings incoming. Below chart shows lows around freezing. Most local backyards get a bit colder than official lows so expect below freezing temps 👇🏽: read more

Fires may spread quickly out of control because

• of winds 5-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH,
• while the air is super dry with relative humidity approaching 20%, and
• the ground remains super dry despite Weds night rain. We remain in drought.

The Warning expires at 7 PM.

Late Saturday into Sunday rain looks meh, off and on. Total under 0.20″ won’t dent drought.

🌩️ Few thunderstorms possible Saturday but the meh severe risk is in that dark green way west of us Saturday 👇🏽 read more

What’ll be a 31 day streak without 0.02″+ of rain might end Thursday morning.

🗣️ Wait, what was that about “might“?

• It’s still a bit sus. Rain misses us in the last two Euro model runs, it goes east. (Makes sense, the good “moisture return” is east).

• GFS disagrees, delivers streak-breaking rain 👇🏽

🗣️ Which one is right?

National Blend of Models thinks rain totaling 0.4″, so I guess go for that? I’m not betting on anything. We need the higher res models to get into range Tuesday to get a grip. read more

Frost Advisory tonight.

Cover or shelter beloved frost sensitive plants.

• Advisory is technically for overnight, 1 AM to 9 AM. Coldest temps will last for a few hours around sunrise.
• We do not think it’ll freeze but it’ll be close.
• Models came in about three degrees colder overnight. BNA’s low went from 40° to 37°.
• Your backyard is usually colder than BNA during fall and winter mornings.

Rain increasingly likely late Wednesday into Thursday.

• GFS, Euro, and National Blend of Models show 0.6″ to 1.2″ rain total.
• Most of this should fall Thursday.

🤞🏽 Thunderstorms – probably not severe – may accompany this rain. This’ll be a “high shear, low instability” event common here in the fall. read more

Dry cold front arrives today.

• No big deal.
• Upper 30°s for most backyards early Sunday morning.
• Official BNA low 40° Sunday morning. BNA is among the warmer local spots during fall and winter mornings.
• Frost unlikely, except on roofs.

Gradual warmup next week 📈.

Drought continues ⌛

• Has not rained more than 0.02″ since September 11.
• Next rain chance Wed-Thu next week. Not much, total of 0.3″ or so on average. This is a low confidence forecast.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. read more