Fires may spread quickly out of control because

• of winds 5-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH,
• while the air is super dry with relative humidity approaching 20%, and
• the ground remains super dry despite Weds night rain. We remain in drought.

The Warning expires at 7 PM.

Late Saturday into Sunday rain looks meh, off and on. Total under 0.20″ won’t dent drought.

🌩️ Few thunderstorms possible Saturday but the meh severe risk is in that dark green way west of us Saturday 👇🏽 read more

What’ll be a 31 day streak without 0.02″+ of rain might end Thursday morning.

🗣️ Wait, what was that about “might“?

• It’s still a bit sus. Rain misses us in the last two Euro model runs, it goes east. (Makes sense, the good “moisture return” is east).

• GFS disagrees, delivers streak-breaking rain 👇🏽

🗣️ Which one is right?

National Blend of Models thinks rain totaling 0.4″, so I guess go for that? I’m not betting on anything. We need the higher res models to get into range Tuesday to get a grip. read more

Frost Advisory tonight.

Cover or shelter beloved frost sensitive plants.

• Advisory is technically for overnight, 1 AM to 9 AM. Coldest temps will last for a few hours around sunrise.
• We do not think it’ll freeze but it’ll be close.
• Models came in about three degrees colder overnight. BNA’s low went from 40° to 37°.
• Your backyard is usually colder than BNA during fall and winter mornings.

Rain increasingly likely late Wednesday into Thursday.

• GFS, Euro, and National Blend of Models show 0.6″ to 1.2″ rain total.
• Most of this should fall Thursday.

🤞🏽 Thunderstorms – probably not severe – may accompany this rain. This’ll be a “high shear, low instability” event common here in the fall. read more

Dry cold front arrives today.

• No big deal.
• Upper 30°s for most backyards early Sunday morning.
• Official BNA low 40° Sunday morning. BNA is among the warmer local spots during fall and winter mornings.
• Frost unlikely, except on roofs.

Gradual warmup next week 📈.

Drought continues ⌛

• Has not rained more than 0.02″ since September 11.
• Next rain chance Wed-Thu next week. Not much, total of 0.3″ or so on average. This is a low confidence forecast.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. read more

We are all “abnormally dry.”

• Even worse: most of Nashville is in a moderate drought.

You know how it happened:

• Our last rain of more than a tenth of an inch was 0.44″ on September 11.
• We average 3.80″ from Sept 1 to Oct 6. This year we’ve had 1.43″, almost all of which came the first two weeks of Sept.

Not even a chance of rain until maybe late Wednesday, Oct. 12. Low confidence in that.

It’s a great time to seal your driveway or stain your deck. read more

No rain until maybe the Thursday the 13th:

Many of us will dip into the upper 30°s around sunrise weekend.

• Frost should miss us to the east, up on the plateau.
• You’ll want your heater tho.

Alert tweeter Justin side-eyed Tuesday’s crap app forecast: 38° in the morning to 97° in the afternoon, guh. read more

• Don’t burn stuff this afternoon.
• afternoon relative humidity 10% to 20%, that’s crazy dry
• brown ground getting crunchy
• thankfully winds should be under 10 MPH, but still …

… no significant rain has fallen in Middle Tennessee since September 11 and our area has become quite dry – so elevated fire danger is expected during the afternoon hours with a risk for brush fires. read more

Mid week warm up incoming, then much colder this week.

• Upper 80°s Thursday in some models.
• Cold front arrives Thursday night.
• Much colder weekend mornings.
• Some us of will see upper 30°s before sunrise Sunday morning.

Euro shows several colder than normal mornings over the next two weeks:

Euro and GFS models show no rain chances until on/after October 13.

• At least some fire danger remains
• Especially tomorrow as relative humidity drops more.

Quick References: read more

Aerating and seeding? The only water you’ll get will have to come out of your hose.

Need to burn a pile? Not a good idea. If you must, avoid the afternoons, when relative humidity is lowest and winds are strongest. read more

Ian is over there 👉🏽

Ian’s rain is all going east of us this weekend:

No rain in sight.

• Models show a front next Thursday bringing us no rain.
• No surprise, October is our driest month.

Our average first fall freeze is November 1.

• Euro ensemble model 👇🏽 shows temps mostly above average until the second week of … November.

• CPC guidance 👇🏽 thinks above normal average temps (there will be cold snaps) through December:

This is not ideal. So-called “Secondary Storm Season” begins in November. read more