Ice remains. It was 5° at BNA overnight. Many local areas colder than that.

Temps above freezing – barely, briefly – this afternoon. Sunlight and light winds will erode but not eliminate ice sheets. Back down to 20° overnight and Monday morning. read more

Most main and secondary roads are OK, but could contain “invisible” black ice in “hard freeze” (T<26°) temps today and Sunday morning. Neighborhood roads, sidewalks and decks remain icy, esp on hills and in shady areas. read more

Wind Chill Advisory. Tonight 10 PM thru Weds 11 AM.

• Wind Chills “as low as minus fifteen” (-15°) expected.” -NWSNashville.
• Winds could “result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.” -NWSNashville.
• Any traveling vehicles need full weather clothes, flashlight, food, water should you slide off icy roads. If you crash you’ll need supplies.
• Tues morning temperature low: 7°. Weds morning low 2°. TWO. Wind chills will be much colder of course.

Snow Totals Vary 5.5″ to 9.5″. Snow fell unevenly. Elevation and location skew results. I’ve seen 5.5″ to 9.5″ in our replies. An average winter in the last 30 years delivered 4.7″. Snowfall is ending now and should be gone after dark. Send measured snow taken from hard surface (not grass) by tagging it with #tSpotter on Twitter. read more

The snow target time is Friday morning.

The below NWS Nashville graf has good information for Middle Tennessee:

Takeaways for us in Davidson and Williamson Counties: read more

Morning rain will end during lunch. A few hit/miss showers may drive by your place this afternoon, otherwise cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine for some. HRRR model through 7 PM today below:

Colder air later this week, wind chills near freezing Weds morning with colder mornings after that. read more

Rain showers later today/tonight.

• 1. Brief, chilly, and unevenly rainfall caused by – impress coworkers at holiday parties with a well timed – this “is common for these clipper systems.”
• 2. Rainout/Washout unlikely.
• 3. You may hear talk of “snow” — that’s for non-accumulating snow potential on the plateau.
• 4. GEO ICYMI: The plateau is east of us – think between Cookeville and Crossville – they’re at higher elevation – easier for them to snow than us.

Near/Freezing Morning Temps & Thursday’s Marginal Fire Danger

• 1. Ice may form where fog develops on bridges and overpasses Weds & Thurs mornings.
• 2. A marginal fire danger Thursday afternoon will discourage outdoor burning – dry airmass with low relative humidity + winds in the low teens = may cause fire containment problems.

Big Rainmaker Coming This Weekend

• 1. TIMING: best guess right now arriving Saturday night and departing around lunch Sunday – timing will probably change.
• 2. RAIN: on average 1″ to 1.5″ – this too may change either way – models diverge in key areas – this reduces forecast confidence.
• 3. STORMS: again our confidence is shaky here due to model disagreement – the path of the storm favors thunderstorms – but other essential ingredients (instability, lapse rates) are very weak in the models – SPC excluded us from severe weather risk – no risk will be introduced unless and until models develop agreement – more to follow later with new data.
• 4. SNOW: not for us – our ground will be way too warm – unreceptive to ice – models at this range routinely advertise snow that never happens – even the Euro (above) pulls the colder air columns way too far north of us.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast. read more

A Great Lakes snowstorm may spin a little rain into Middle Tennessee Tuesday – no biggie here – HRRR model below:

Mild days, cold mid week mornings – near freezing – ahead:

A big system will plow through this weekend. Here it is: read more