A storm complex will make a run at us overnight tonight, kicking off an off/on rainy Sunday.
HRRR thinks the first round of rain gets here around 3:00 am. Could have some thunder/lightning with it. Doggies prepare. The window closes on rain chances about 7:00 pm. Time stamps top left.
Our local NWS office issues a technical forecast discussion at least twice a day. They’re filled with information, and often contain terms that are understood by the weather community, but perhaps, not many others. However, today’s discussion is perfect for just about everyone. Didn’t see much of a need to re-invent the wheel…except for maybe substituting a word or two. Read on.
From NWS Nashville re: Saturday’s Rain Chances:
We continue to look for development of a [storm complex] up to our northwest
tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by
Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it
encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee.
Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the
remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday.
We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main
result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers
that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events.
Good morning. Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible today and tonight with all modes possible. Flash flooding, tornadoes, damaging straight line wind and large hail.
Timing: This is especially difficult to communicate. Some may see multiple severe storms today. Some may see only one or just one nearby. It depends on many factors, many of which aren’t being handled well in the models today. This is not a one and done event and will likely last about 24 hours.
Monthly tornado siren test in Williamson County is at 1:00 pm. Just a test. No worries.
Monthly tornado siren test in Davidson County is at noon. No worries.
PSA: First-Saturday-of-the-month tornado siren tests are today. Noon in Davidson. 1:00 pm in Williamson.
I’m encouraged by the latest HRRR model run, which keeps storms pretty isolated/scattered through the night rather than a big line of angry storms. I’m not betting the house on this, but my anxiety level is pretty low. Loop through noon Friday.
Severe warned storm to our north is moving away from us, but lightning still an issue near these storms. If you hear thunder, you’re in range of being struck by lightning. Penny-size hail reported a bit ago in this storm. We’ve been spared by this one. 7:19 pm
New severe thunderstorm warning for the storm NW of Joelton. We are EXCLUDED from this warning.
The cell clipping us on the NW side has gotten pretty impressive. Hail a good possibility. Possibly decent size hail. Watching it closely. Coopertown Rd area, heads up.
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