Series of Rain Chances Through Monday: In NWS Nashville’s Words

Our local NWS office issues a technical forecast discussion at least twice a day. They’re filled with information, and often contain terms that are understood by the weather community, but perhaps, not many others. However, today’s discussion is perfect for just about everyone. Didn’t see much of a need to re-invent the wheel…except for maybe substituting a word or two. Read on.

From NWS Nashville re: Saturday’s Rain Chances:

We continue to look for development of a [storm complex] up to our northwest
tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by
Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it
encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee.
Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the
remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday.
We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main
result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers
that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events.

HRRR’s take on this scenario. Loop 12:00 am-11 pm Saturday. Pretty much rain free.

For Sunday, a more potent system looks to make it here. Again, NWS Nashville:

Better rain chances will come late Saturday night into Sunday as
another batch of rain and storms comes our way from the northwest.
This batch is expected to hold together with widespread showers
and some rumbles of thunder. Surface conditions appear too stable
for any severe risk. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and
evening as a cold front drops into the area. By mid afternoon
Sunday, humidity levels will be higher and there will be some
pockets of instability (storm fuel), so a couple of strong storms with
downpours and gusty wind cannot be ruled out, but we are not
seeing a widespread severe risk.

HRRR for Sunday from midnight – 1:00 pm (limit of the HRRR at this range)

Beyond Sunday, heat and humidity dials up:

Passage of the cold front late Sunday into Sunday night will
bring another shot of cooler and drier air, but there will remain
a lingering risk for a few showers or storms Monday as the
boundary moves southward across the region.

The trend for next week will be a pleasantly cool and drier start
to the week with warming temperatures and increasing humidity
throughout the week. Some scattered showers or storms cannot be
ruled out at times, but at this point, models are deflecting the
bulk of next week`s disturbances and rain chances away from our
area. By next weekend, temps and humidity levels will creep up
into "hot and humid" territory with heat index values possible
approaching 100.

Leave a Reply