“I Lift My Gaze to Empty Skies Above”

Temps stay very comfortable over the next week or so with cool nights and warm days. No freezing temperatures in the 7-day forecast. Listen closely, and you’ll hear your mums rejoice.

The Water Sitch

“I dream of rain; I dream of gardens in the desert sand. I dream of rain; I lift my gaze to empty skies above.”

The drought continues. Extreme drought in most of Williamson County. Slightly better conditions in northern Davidson County. Model blends predict about a half inch of rain over the next 7 days. That ain’t a drought buster. But, we’ll take it. Unfortunately, a half inch may be on the high end of estimates.

Nearly all of this rain would be Thursday night into Friday morning. But, that’s a few days away. We’ll update that as it gets closer.

Fix Your Clock and Stuff

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

Location, Location, Location

Whether you’ve seen rain today all depends on where you are. Some have seen a lot and got a flood advisory out of it. Some haven’t had a drop. Rain totals as of 11:12 am (Radar Estimates, NOT Observations):

Additional showers are possible today. No severe weather is forecast, but a lightning strike or two isn’t out of the question. See latest radar loops here: https://nashvillesevereweather.com/radar/

HRRR thinks the showers will move east by late evening/tonight. (Loop through 9 pm)

Sunday Into Next Week

After today, the sun returns. Temps gradually warm up, but stay under 85°. Lows upper 50s to low 60s. Not bad at all. In fact, looking way out in the models, rain chances look pretty unimpressive through the end of the month. Might get a little dry. Subject to change though.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

Storm Chances Return Saturday-Monday

If you slept through the storms early this morning, grats. The lightning output was pretty incredible, and we saw a brief wind gust that damaged a tree or two in S Brentwood.

Decent rain amounts too, especially in central Williamson Co.

Weekend Storm Chances

This time of year, the door opens for Mesoscale Convective Systems. These MCSs are commonly in the form of I-24 Specials… storm complexes that come down I-24 from NW to SE. These complexes are not typically handled very well in computer models.

We’ll be watching for the possibility of one or more of these storm complexes Saturday and again on Sunday. Then, a cold front on Monday. Storm chances each day. More details later as they come into view.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

Dry Streak Comes To An End This Weekend

Rain will be a welcome sight to many this weekend…unless you have outdoor plans. Latest U.S. Drought Monitor has us as “abnormally dry.” Sounds right.

Hi-Res Models, which are just coming into view, generally agree that scattered showers and storms will arrive Sunday morning. That’s about all we can get from those models right now….because that’s as far out as they go. The lower-res models pick up from there and keep rain off/on all day Sunday into Sunday night.

Lightning and scattered heavy downpours are a good possibility…the kind that send everyone inside for a while. Unfortunately, we don’t know exactly when yet.

Severe Weather Threat

This system has some organization with it, which could yield some damaging straight-line wind gusts. SPC believes there is a 15% chance of this occurring within 25 miles of you. Our local NWS office gives some specifics here:

Temps

Overall, nothing crazy temp-wise. Expect highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 50s, low 60s. Pretty typical.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

Late Night for the Swifties, Warm Temps, Scattered Storms

Word is the Swifties had a late night. Our correspondents Amy and Catherine reported it was declared an official rain show. Described as “iconic” and “memorable.” All’s well that ends well.

Seems like just yesterday we were watching the above graph for freezing low temps. Now….80s for highs, 60s for lows. Might even need to mow twice this week.

This morning, an outflow boundary snuck in here kicking off some scattered downpours. The HRRR doesn’t currently believe this hangs around very long this AM and clears the radar out for most of the day. Tonight, though, the HRRR appears to be throwing darts at another outflow boundary around 10 pm. It’s very inconsistent run-to-run. One run showing storms. The other not. This particular run (the 8 am run) thinks they won’t be much of a big deal and arrive after midnight. But, this could change on the next run. We’ll be watching radar.

SPC has placed those basically north of I-40 in a 15% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of you. Lower chances S of I-40.

And a 5% of large hail…quarter size or larger within 25 miles of you.

No tornado concerns.

Tuesday and Beyond

The overnight storms should clear out early in the day, leaving a decent couple of days to dry out. Next wave of unsettled weather comes Thursday through the weekend. It’s springtime after all….and our rainiest month of the year on average.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

Couple of Small Rain Chances Next Week

Models are having a hard time with rain chances over the next few days, but it appears there are two windows of opportunity for rain next week.

  • Overnight Sunday into early Monday morning – Could get a thunderstorm or two, but mostly just showers, if anything.
  • Monday night into early Tuesday morning – Another relatively small chance for rain. No big deal.

We’re going to keep an eye on the end of the work week. A somewhat organized system could come together to our west and come through here late week. Way too early for details, but we 👀 any system that can get organized this time of year.

Overall, next week looks pretty fantastic.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

Overnight Freezes Continue, Rain Returns Mid-Week

🥶Hard freeze tonight and Sunday night. Regular ole freeze Monday night. Early blooms ain’t gonna like it.

I think I’m going to just cover everything with bedsheets and leave it for 4 days. It’ll look like a yard sale, but I don’t care. lol

Originally tweeted by Jason (@FinnMc40) on Saturday, March 18, 2023 @ 4:48 am.

NWS Nashville on next week:

Looking ahead through next week, a warming trend will occur,
especially midweek as a warm front lifts across the region. We are
forecasting highs near 80 degrees by Thursday. This warmer pattern
will also bring increased humidity and a chance for showers. The
chance for showers will peak around Friday as a cold front
approaches. This front could also bring a few thunderstorms. The
front will be followed by another dip in temperatures for next
weekend.

NWS Morning AFD March 18, 2022

🚫No severe weather expected

🚫 No flooding expected

🚫 No snow expected

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

It’s Gonna Freeze

Low temperatures will be below freezing for the next four nights or so. At least a couple of these freezes will be “hard freezes.” Protect any landscaping/plants that has been overeager in past weeks.

Sunday will be the coldest day in the forecast, barely getting into the 40s.

No precip until mid/late-week, and those chances are low at the moment….but we do get a warm-up out of the deal.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

I Broke A Rule Today…Sorta

Those of us who’ve been around Nashville for a while know that planting stuff before tax day is really just a demonstration of your lack of self-control. This describes me perfectly. I’m well aware that those green graph bars up there show two nights of sub-freezing temperatures, but I’m ready to get on with things, for the love. On the bright side, the only things I planted were fairly hearty shrubs. They should be alright. But, really, let’s get on with it.

Rain Tonight

As I write this, rain chances are trending upward. In fact, on the front end of the rain you might hear some pings of sleet, because….science.

That dry air will act to keep rain light for a while, but eventually we expect rain to get more steady. Could even get a rumble of thunder, but no strong or severe storms. HRRR through 9:00 am as rain ends. (BTW, notice it skips an hour early tomorrow morning….wonder why….oh yeah!)

Spring forward. Daylight Saving Time begins overnight.

HRRR rain accumulation thinks we’ll range from a third of an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain by 9:00 am Sunday morning. Your mileage may vary.

Next Week

We’ll have some frosty mornings early in the week with frost and/or freeze advisories likely to be issued now that we’re coming into the growing season.

We should stay rain free until Thursday night and Friday when our next system arrives with a cold front, and it could bring temps down for a bit. NWS:

After that front passes, we will have another possibly stronger shot of cold air for next weekend. Forecast models show the colder air setting up shop for a while. This means we are likely to have winter-like temperatures as we head into the first day of astronomical spring on March 20!

NWS Nashville Afternoon Discussion 3/11/23

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weather

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.

‘Twas A Bit Less Windy Today, Rain-Free Til Wednesday

As they say, some of the prettiest weather occurs after a significant storm, and that we had.

Yesterday’s thunderstorms ended up not really being the main story. While there was wind damage associated with the storms themselves, we made it out without any tornadoes locally. Most of the wind damage of the day came after the storms departed and unfortunately, claimed a couple of lives here in Middle Tennessee. That’s news we certainly hated to hear.

A High Wind Warning had been issued, which warned us that gusts on the order of 60 mph were possible. Now, I’ve lived in Nashville for over 30 years. I’ve about seen it all here. But, I’ve not seen a day like we had yesterday.

What ensued post-storms was basically a multi-county-wide severe thunderstorm wind damage event. While most severe thunderstorms produce relatively narrow swaths of wind damage (localized), the winds we got yesterday were of severe thunderstorm strength on just about everyone, and they lasted a long time. The longer they lasted, the more damage was done, particularly to the electric infrastructure. See NWS Nashville’s explanation of why we had what we had: (if you have dark mode on this website, you may need to turn it off to read the text)

Quick look at the forecast

Highs of 70 on Sunday and 80 on Monday kick off the week. We’ll stay rain free til maybe Wednesday or Wednesday night when an unsettled weather pattern kicks in through the end of the week into the weekend.

We’ll talk more about that as we get closer.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weathe

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.