Rain Clears Out for NYE

The Main Thing: The main thing we’re watching in this forecast is the potential for strong storms overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning. More below.

Rain moves back in during the day today. HRRR thinks it’ll be light/scattered, then pick up overnight tonight. Loop through 1 am.

This rain should move out Saturday afternoon and set us up for a precip-free NYE. We might even get some sun out of the deal just before sunset.

Our next system comes in Monday and Monday night. At the moment, it looks like showers develop Monday afternoon. Then, a front comes through Monday night. This front could bring severe weather to our west and southwest. The current outlook from the SPC keeps the highest severe chances juuuuust to our west.

It’s possible the storms will weaken as they move east….since they’re coming through at night without any daytime heating. We’ll keep an eye on this setup.

The NWS Blend of Models is predicting a couple of inches of rain for us through noon Tuesday.

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A Welcome Warming Trend

It was a storm we’ll tell our grandkids about one day. With a gust of wind we plummeted into a nasty season of spending 88 hours below freezing, some of those below zero, with punishing wind chills. Rolling blackouts, broken pipes and hazardous travel were part of the narrative for many of us this Christmas. But, better days are here.

The snow will be a distant memory soon with high temps today around 43°, and temps will warm each day.

Our next system gets here Thursday night and brings rain with it Thursday night through Saturday night. Too early to tell how it will affect NYE festivities.

Another system comes through early next week. All looks to be rain at this point. Temps will be warrrrm.

Oddly enough, that’s really all there is to write about. Seems strange.

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Drought Improvement With More Rain On the Way

No surprise here, but we’ve improved quite a bit in the drought department, and will likely improve even more over the coming weeks. We’re now only Abnormally Dry. We’re almost there. Let’s get out of this thing.

Of course, to get out of the drought, we need rain, and lots of it. As expected, the rain has been coming down round after round, and this will generally continue.

Today, HRRR keeps scattered showers around, but nothing particularly heavy. This should give creeks a chance to pass water downstream before additional rain. Loop through 7:00 pm.

Any Dry Days?

Sunday and Monday look to be our only dry days in the forecast.

NWS highlights the possibility of additional rain/storms next week:

A strong system will impact the area by midweek with more showers, possibly several inches of rainfall, and maybe some strong thunderstorms.

NWS morning AFD, December 8, 2022

Rainfall forecast over the next seven days. We’re not done yet!

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Wet Pattern On the Way, Maybe Some Decent Rain Totals

Was flipping through some TV Channels last night and ran across Bree Smith saying that Thursday (today) is the only day in the 7 day forecast that is free of rain chances. She’s exactly right. A rainy pattern is a’comin. But, details are pretty sketchy.

We Still Need the Rain

The weekly drought map was released this morning. Remember, the data cutoff for this map is Tuesday morning, so we’re sure to see improvement in next week’s map from this past Tuesday night’s big rainer. But, alas, the drought remains.

We might just knock this thing out if this happens…

That’s the 7 day qpf (precip forecast) from the Weather Prediction Center, forecasting 3-4+ inches of rain for Middle Tennessee over the next week.

The NWS Blend of Models product agrees.

Details on Timing

This section will be short because we really don’t have much in the way of details. So, let’s just take tomorrow.

HRRR thinks we’ll see spotty light showers here and there for Friday with heavier downpours dotting the radar overnight into Saturday. Loop through 6:00 am Saturday.

After the overnight rain moves out on Saturday morning, we might get away with a nice afternoon with temps around 60 if the sun will come out.

Rain picks up again on Sunday and especially Sunday night through Tuesday night. This would be the most likely time for us to experience any flooding problems. The Weather Prediction Center gives us “at least a 15% chance” of experiencing flash flooding in our area Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

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Rain This Evening/Tonight; Storms Tuesday Night

At the mere mention of a football game in a tweet yesterday, two guys in our timeline have been going at it with each other in the replies about why their team is better. But, I’m just here to tell you if it’ll rain or not.

And….it looks like it will. HRRR thinks scattered light rain will start moving in even as early as 2-3 pm and continue to get more steady as the evening wears on. Loop from 2:00 pm – midnight.

That looks like some heavier rain back to our west around midnight [checks other models]. Yeah, it looks like a round of heavier rain could move in after midnight and be gone by sunrise. This is the most likely time to hear thunder.

No severe weather expected.

On Sunday, the heaviest rain will be east of us by sunrise, but showers and sprinkles could hang around off/on throughout the day. HRRR 12:00 am – 9:00 pm Sunday.

Storms Expected Early Next Week

Tuesday/Tuesday night, another storm system comes in that has some kick to it. Currently, SPC is highlighting areas SW of us for severe weather.

While the models don’t show super impressive ingredients for severe weather here, we aren’t writing this off and moving on. We’ll be keeping an eye on forecast revisions…which could bring these chances of severe weather closer to us.

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Rain Saturday Night; Storm System Next Week

Rain amounts in last night’s sprinkler barely registered. The big winner was five hundredths of an inch in southern Davidson Co. Most much less than that. That was to be expected.

Our next rainer will bring more rainfall Saturday night. Sometime around or after dark, rain will move in from the SW. Could even get a few lightning strikes out of the heavier rain cells. HRRR illustrates what the radar could look like. Loop Saturday 3:00 pm – Sunday 6:00 am (when rain should be moving out).

Generally looking at less than an inch of rain (NWS Blend of Models)

Next System Could Be Stormy

A strong cold front comes through Tuesday night-Wednesday. Ahead of this front, moisture will surge up from the Gulf along with a few ingredients needed for storms. But, models disagree on to what extent.

For example, the GFS shows ample moisture (measured by the dew point) surging up for storms to feed off of, maybe even to severe levels.

But other models, especially ensemble models, disagree. Ensemble models are given more weight because they are a combination of several models, rather than just looking at one. NWS Blend of Models:

Less blue is good.

NWS has outlooked areas SW of us for the possibility of severe weather, but we are not included as of today. But, that could change as we get closer.

We’ll keep an eye on it.

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Two Rounds of Rain, Tonight and Saturday Night

Loved seeing your pics of yesterday’s sun dog. It was one of the more brilliant ones we’ve seen around here.

If you’re interested in what causes this coolness, check this out.

Rain: Round One

I think we’ll get through most, if not all, of the daylight hours today rain-free. The incoming blob of rain will be light and moving from west to east on your radar display of choice. HRRR illustrates (1:00 pm today to 10:00 am Friday):

It’s possible we only get trace amounts of rain with this round. Again, very light.

Rain: Round Two

Round two could bring heavier rain Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Mayyybe a few lightning strikes. But, no severe weather.

We have to go to the low resolution, long range models to get an idea on timing for this round. Euro loop is Saturday 3:00 pm – Sunday 6:00 pm. Most of this rain comes through while we sleep.

All in all, the NWS Blend of Models thinks we get under an inch of rain. This is less than it thought 24 hours ago, and it may adjust up again.

Latest Drought Monitor

No change for us in this week’s drought monitor. We remain in Moderate Drought. The rain will be welcome in this regard.

Happy Thanksgiving

We know there are a variety of ways you’re spending this holiday. Some may spend it with family. Some may not have family to spend it with. Some will have multiple tables full of homemade food. Some will have take-out, if anything. Some will find comfort and warmth in the presence of people they love. Some will sit around a table of hostility and unrest. We have a variety of backgrounds.

Whatever the circumstance, it’s a day where we all seem to look introspectively to some degree and take note of what we have. We are blessed today to have you. You give us an outlet to show our love for something David, Will and I have loved since we were young. You look at our model maps, you put up with our “jokes,” and you love us well. Thank you for supporting us.

Whatever situation you find yourself in today, I hope you have a good day, a Happy Thanksgiving.

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On/Off Rain Thursday Night Through Saturday Night

I woke up this morning to the [wonderful] smell of our turkey brine simmering on the stove. Bird’s now soaking in that goodness in the fridge. Tomorrow’s the day.

Tomorrow’s also the day when our next system brings us some very beneficial rainfall. But, can the rain hold off until you wrap up your backyard football game? Maybe.

The HRRR is now in range for Thursday into Friday morning. Loop is Thursday 9:00 am to Friday 6:00 am.

It thinks we stay dry for a good part of the day. And, when rain does arrive, it’s very light.

We’ll likely catch a break on Friday, especially in the afternoon. Rain then picks back up sometime Saturday, especially Saturday night. This is still a long way off, but GFS approximates: (Loop Noon Saturday – 3:00 am Sunday). Take this with a big grain of salt.

By Sunday morning, we could net a nice inch or inch and a half of rain on average. Your amounts may vary. We’ll take it.

Temps look to stay above freezing all the way through early next week.

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Thanksgiving Day Forecast; Rainy Weekend

If you feel like your hands, lips and sinuses are dry, it’s because the air is at a nearly record low moisture level, per NWS. Some things you can do to help are breathing steam, use a humidifier at night, lotion and drink plenty of water. While high water intake is typically a summer thing, it’s also important this time of year for both you and your animals when the air gets super dry. Drink plenty of water!

Warming Trend

Today and tomorrow look to be nice with temps around 60°. Plenty of sun.

Thanksgiving Day

A rain producing system will be approaching Thanksgiving Day, and models have had a hard time resolving the timing of the rain. It still looks like the first half of the day will be rain-free, but rain will likely be crossing the TN River as the afternoon goes on.

We don’t typically use the Nam 3km model, especially in stormy scenarios. But, here, it illustrates what we’re talking about timing-wise. Loop is 5am – 6pm.

The rain picks up Thursday night and continues off/on through most of the weekend, leaving us sometime on Sunday.

All in all, the NWS Blend of Models thinks we could see over an inch of rain, which would be very welcome for our drought situation. Hopefully, it won’t foil too many plans.

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Rain Still Anticipated Thanksgiving Night Through Friday

As a young lad growing up in Nashville there was a morning newspaper and an evening newspaper. This is your evening newspa…. uhh… blog.

So, today was better. 55° was our high. Warmer each day all the way to Thanksgiving Day with highs in the low to mid-60s.

The Catch

The latter part of our week looks rainy. Details are pretty blurry. NWS Nashville explains why:

Extended models are still not in great agreement and quite frankly are a mess.

NWS Nashville

NWS is leaning heavily on the GFS model solution which keeps most of Thanksgiving dry, but keeps Thursday night and all day Friday wet.

The GFS also brings in some pretty heavy rain with this system, but keeps most of that to our south along the AL border, where it’s forecasting over two inches of rain.

Remember what our NWS office said: models don’t agree on how this will evolve. So, timing and rain amounts are likely to be adjusted over the next day or two.

So, Thanksgiving plans? Right now it’s looking pretty good for at least a lunch time shindig. Maybe even dinner, but I feel better about lunch time.

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