Thanksgiving Day Forecast; Rainy Weekend

If you feel like your hands, lips and sinuses are dry, it’s because the air is at a nearly record low moisture level, per NWS. Some things you can do to help are breathing steam, use a humidifier at night, lotion and drink plenty of water. While high water intake is typically a summer thing, it’s also important this time of year for both you and your animals when the air gets super dry. Drink plenty of water!

Warming Trend

Today and tomorrow look to be nice with temps around 60°. Plenty of sun.

Thanksgiving Day

A rain producing system will be approaching Thanksgiving Day, and models have had a hard time resolving the timing of the rain. It still looks like the first half of the day will be rain-free, but rain will likely be crossing the TN River as the afternoon goes on.

We don’t typically use the Nam 3km model, especially in stormy scenarios. But, here, it illustrates what we’re talking about timing-wise. Loop is 5am – 6pm.

The rain picks up Thursday night and continues off/on through most of the weekend, leaving us sometime on Sunday.

All in all, the NWS Blend of Models thinks we could see over an inch of rain, which would be very welcome for our drought situation. Hopefully, it won’t foil too many plans.

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Rain Still Anticipated Thanksgiving Night Through Friday

As a young lad growing up in Nashville there was a morning newspaper and an evening newspaper. This is your evening newspa…. uhh… blog.

So, today was better. 55° was our high. Warmer each day all the way to Thanksgiving Day with highs in the low to mid-60s.

The Catch

The latter part of our week looks rainy. Details are pretty blurry. NWS Nashville explains why:

Extended models are still not in great agreement and quite frankly are a mess.

NWS Nashville

NWS is leaning heavily on the GFS model solution which keeps most of Thanksgiving dry, but keeps Thursday night and all day Friday wet.

The GFS also brings in some pretty heavy rain with this system, but keeps most of that to our south along the AL border, where it’s forecasting over two inches of rain.

Remember what our NWS office said: models don’t agree on how this will evolve. So, timing and rain amounts are likely to be adjusted over the next day or two.

So, Thanksgiving plans? Right now it’s looking pretty good for at least a lunch time shindig. Maybe even dinner, but I feel better about lunch time.

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NashSevereWx and Twitter

The story of NashSevereWx began in 2010…on Twitter. In 2011, we had 100 followers. Twitter has been our home. It’s the best way to get information to you in a chronological fashion and for you to get information to us. We’ve become efficient in our process of communication on Twitter. It has worked well.

For now, it still does. Sure, we’ve looked at other platforms. But, Twitter is still the best specifically for what we do.

Many have asked if we’re following the news of Twitter’s recent challenges and asking what would happen to NashSevereWx if Twitter disappeared one day. So, let’s talk about it.

While we don’t intend to leave Twitter, NashSevereWx is not dependent on Twitter. It would kinda be a bummer if it disappeared. We’ve been through a lot together on Twitter. It has become an extension of us in some ways. But, we won’t go away if Twitter does.

Other Ways To Get Our Information

There are at least three other ways we can communicate to you besides Twitter.

What Can You Do Today?

First, you can subscribe to our daily forecast blog and have it delivered to your email the moment we publish it. Currently, we tweet the link. If we can’t do that, you’ll get it in your inbox if you’re subscribed. Second, you can follow us on Instagram. More on that below. Third, you can subscribe to our YouTube channel. Be sure to both subscribe and click on the bell so you receive notifications when we go live or post a video. This is necessary in the event we’re not able to tweet a YouTube link for you to join. (Note: This notification should not and does not serve as a substitute for a reliable weather alert app.)

By doing these things today, you’ll still be in the loop if you find yourself unable to log in to Twitter.

What Happens If Twitter Stops Working?

Some things will not change. We would still post a daily blog. We would still go live on YouTube during severe weather and post additional video content as needed.

We would likely lean on Instagram for updates that don’t fall in the category of the daily forecast blog or severe weather coverage on YouTube, similar to what we’ve done on Twitter. We’ve done that behind the scenes for a while now, but have not officially used it as a replacement for Twitter. And, we don’t currently intend to….unless we need to.

Finally

We appreciate y’all so much. Through our Twitter journey we’ve seen you and your family play in the snow. We’ve seen pictures of your flooded neighborhood and the tree that fell on your house. We’ve seen your amazing sunset pics and your summer post-storm rainbows. People ask us how many followers we have on Twitter now. Many times, I don’t know exactly. I truly don’t. It’s about more than numbers to us. It’s about being in a community where we help each other understand something that is bigger than us, something we can’t control. Whether there are 200 people in that community or 200,000, we’re just honored to be a part of it…and humbled that you’d listen. What happens with Twitter? Who knows? But we’ll figure it out together.

Cold Continues, Drought Eases Somewhat

Let’s start with the good news. The latest US Drought Monitor map (released today) has removed the area of severe drought from both counties. We got downgraded to moderate drought. Hopefully soil moisture and drought impacts can improve greatly over the winter. We’re not there yet, but heading in the right direction.

Cold Continues

No changes to previous forecasts. We’re still locked into a cold pattern with occasional reinforcing cold fronts coming through. You won’t know these cold fronts have come through except for the continuing cold.

Highs will finally push into the 50s on Monday when we’re forecast to hit 53°

Next Rain Chance?

Maybe Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Low resolution global models have wildly different solutions on this setup. So, confidence is low. More on that as we get closer and models coming to more agreement.

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Cold and Dry Through the Weekend

Winter-lovers rejoice. Your time has come.

Temps will be running well short of our average high of 60° for this time of year. In fact, we don’t make it out of the 40s for highs until Monday. Should have plenty of sunshine though. Lows will generally be in the mid-20s.

Flurries Tonight?

A cold front comes through tonight that miiight drop some flurries. They won’t amount to anything, but HRRR thinks they may come through around 10pm tonight. Loop from 7pm-midnight:

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Hey Alaska. Come get your weather.

  • The average high for Nashville today is 60°. If only.
  • Rain has moved out (save for a few sprinkles or some drizzle).
  • There’s really only one story this week, and that is the continuing cold weather, especially late week. Thursday through Sunday temps probably won’t get above 45°, again, roughly 20° below normal.
  • We could get a passing flurry Wednesday night, according to the HRRR. No big deal. Loop 4 pm through 1 am Wednesday/Thursday.

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Rain Tonight; Cold Weather Continues

Sun today will give way to unsettled weather tonight. Rain should enter the area around 10:00 pm and continue overnight, ending around lunchtime Tuesday. 12z HRRR:

No severe weather or flooding concerns with this system…just a cold rain…about a third of an inch should be common,.

Cold Continues

The rest of the week looks rain free, but the cold is not going anywhere for a while. Highs through Sunday look to be in the low-mid 40s.

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Rain, Then Brrrr

The forecast has remained pretty consistent over the last few days. The two stories from the last couple of days remain the two stories for today.

Rain Tonight Into Tomorrow Morning

We’ll be affected by two systems. The remnants of Nicole from our east. A strong cold front from our west. As these two systems interact, we expect rain to begin overnight and last until tomorrow afternoon. HRRR loop 4:00 pm today – 7:00 pm Friday.

Most computer models continue to show the heaviest rain will occur east of us. HRRR thinks there will also be some heavier downpours to our north and west. I’m not sold on the exact placement of the heavier showers. Basically, if heavier showers develop over us, our rain totals will increase. That’s ok. We’re in a severe drought after all.

We could see some passing showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Outdoor plans could be in jeopardy, not necessarily because of the rain intensity. But, because any rain+cold is gross. It’s not out of the question that some of this rain could be lightly mixed with frozen stuff. But, no big deal.

Cold Temperatures

The aforementioned cold front is a strong one. Highs Saturday and Sunday aren’t forecast to get out of the 40s. Monday and Tuesday look to be in the low 50s. A little shock to the system. A wake up call that winter is on the way.

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Rain Thursday Night Into Friday; Major Cooldown

Two stories for today. First, Nicole will be making landfall on the east coast of Florida in the next 24 hours. If you have interests in Florida and need more info on impacts there, reference the National Hurricane Center.

As Nicole makes a hard right, impacts (rain) will overspread The Appalachians, with heavier rain in east TN, less in west TN. We, of course, are in between. There is expected to be a sharp gradient of rain coverage and amounts on the western edge of the rain. Each frame below is a different computer model illustrating rain accumulation. Notice how the placement of the heavier rain shifts slightly.

None of them show the heavier rain reaching us. However, we do anticipate some rain. Generally less than in inch beginning pre-dawn Friday morning and continuing through a good part of the morning.

Temperatures

Back to reality. The remnants of Nicole are coinciding with the arrival of a strong cold front barreling in from the west. Friday night we drop into the 30s. Saturday and Sunday we don’t get out of the 40s for highs.

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Hang On While I Move Inside

Ok, I’m back. Just as I was about to start typing, sprinkles began appearing on my laptop for the second day in a row. We really do think these will dissipate and not be a big deal today. Most won’t see them at all.

The warmth will be the story today…and for the next few days. High temps will run 75-80°. Our average high is 62°. But, like I’ve been telling one of my kids who’s rocking the flu right now…this too shall pass.

Nicole

Nicole will come ashore on the east coast of Florida Wednesday night/Thursday morning and eventually make a hard right. This should keep the majority of the precip east of us, although it’s certainly possible we see some rain. This remains to be seen. However, with the low pressure center east of us, this will open the door for a strong cold front/NW winds which will bring cold temps with it.

For more detailed info on Nicole, see the National Hurricane Center.

Back to precip. Because we’re several days away, we’re dealing with low resolution models here. But, they agree that the heaviest rains will stay east of us. But, not by a lot. Compare the NAM, GFS and Euro.

We could use that rain here in Middle Tennessee. So, I won’t complain if it shifts west. We’ll see. There will be more to say as we get closer.

Quick References:

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