Dry Air Monster Today, Rain Chances Continue Through the Weekend

He’s baaack. The morning weather balloon shows the D.A.M. (Dry Air Monster) hovering above. He’ll do two things today. 1) He’ll eat rain, keeping it light here at the ground level. 2) Evaporative cooling could cause some sleet pellets to fall briefly. I’ve had some at my office in the past hour. No worries though.

Rain should taper off this evening.

This weekend, we expect scattered drizzle/sprinkles/light rain to fall…not the whole time, but it’ll be just….scattered. Temps? More like February.

You notice Monday’s temp is quite nice. Models disagree, but it’s possible storms could contain strong downdraft winds, primarily east of us. Not worried about this at all right now, but we’ll see if this comes better in to focus or if it becomes a non-thing over the next couple of days.

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A Big Record Falls

As of 1:55 pm, Nashville reached 85 degrees. This breaks the all time record high for the month of February. It also is the earliest in the year Nashville has reached 85 degrees. Previously, the earliest 85 degree reading was March 12, 1967. So… big day for the record keepers.

One question we get a lot… “so will this unseasonably warm weather create severe storms tonight?” Nah. Warm weather is only one of several ingredients needed. We good.

A cold front will come through this evening. HRRR through 7am Friday makes it hard to pick up the cold front, but it’s there. A few showers are possible, but nothing worth talking much about.

Cool temps return, and off/on rain sticks around through Monday or Monday night. Specifically for those with outdoor plans on Saturday, radar could look something like this. HRRR 1:00 am – noon Saturday.

Severe Weather Awareness Day

Join us for Severe Weather Awareness Day this coming Saturday! This is always a great event with educational booths, meet-n-greet opportunities and presentations. We hope to see you there! For more information: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/SWAD2023

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Who’s Ready for 82°?

That’s not a typo. Gonna be warm later this week. But first…

There are a few opportunities for rain this week. One is this evening, but it may miss us. HRRR 3pm-2am:

So, don’t count on rain tonight. But, don’t be surprised if you pick some up either.

Next chances of rain come Wednesday night and again on Friday night. Not looking at any severe weather or flooding. Timing will become more clear as we get closer.

Heat Wave

Our record high on Thursday is 84° set in 1962. Not only is that the record high for that day. It’s the all-time February high temperature in Nashville. We’re forecast to reach 82°.

That 🔥 doesn’t hang around though. We’ll be back in the 50s for highs for Friday.

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Quiet Couple of Days. Maybe Some Showers This Weekend

The wind advisory has now expired, the (very meh) severe threat has passed, and the sun is back. Looks like a nice afternoon. Winds peaked at 46 mph at BNA early this morning.

Our next weather system is a low pressure system we think will dive down toward the Gulf Coast and ride up the Atlantic coastal states this weekend into Monday.

12z Euro Model from this morning:

12z GFS Model:

Both generally agree on the track of the low pressure system AND that most of the precip will stay just to the east of us. We’ll watch it through. For the time being, a small 20% chance of showers is in the forecast for Sunday, but not enough to ruin Super Bowl party plans.

Quick Look at Next Week

Storm chances could return on Tuesday night or Wednesday. We’ll be watching for any chance these could turn strong. Additional rain/storms look possible on Thursday.

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Nice Day Today, Rain Returns Tonight

The year was 1985. New cars would set you back about $9000 on average. If you think that number is low, check out the low temp. On January 19th, Nashville recorded 5.3 inches of snowfall, and by the 21st, with 5 inches still on the ground, Nashville’s temperature plunged to -17°, the coldest temperature since records started in 1873…a record that still stands today. Franklin got even colder, dropping to -21°.

Enough of that. Temps will all be positive numbers in this forecast period. Yay.

Light Rain for Sunday

Late tonight, clouds will increase, and light rain will overspread the area. Likely not “on” all the time. But, scattered showers can be expected through most of Sunday, tapering off as the day goes on. HRRR model from 10:00 pm tonight through 6:00 am Monday.

Next Big System – Tuesday Night/Wednesday

Another system will charge through Tuesday night. A few highlights on what we’re expecting:

  • We’ll be too far north for severe weather
  • Expecting an inch of rain
  • Wind could be impressive…a “strap things down” kind of a day Wednesday
  • Could get very minor wintry precip on the back side of the system Wednesday night/Thursday, but not likely right now.

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Rainy Sunday Ahead

Happy Friday Afternoon!

We have a decent uneventful start to the weekend ahead, but rain will start to creep in late Saturday night and keep things wet into Sunday.

HRRR (above) from 11pm Saturday through noon Sunday doesn’t show any particularly heavy rain, but enough to make the day pretty

Eww.

It’s possible some leftover sprinkles/light rain showers could hang around into Sunday night. But, we think the main show will have moved out by afternoon.

Next Rain Chance

Models are showing another system for the middle of next week, say Tuesday night. This one is just a rainer, but could bring more in the way of amounts, maybe an inch of rain.

Not expecting winter weather with either of these systems. But, it wouldn’t shock us to see an occasional snowflake or pellet of sleet on the tail end of either of these systems as colder air arrives. But, that’s a slim chance at best.

Wind Advisory Today, Cooler Tomorrow

It’ll be windy today, but the “storms” from last night are long gone. Should be a nice day.

Temps will hover right around 50° for highs through early next week.

Next Rain Chances

Sunday looks like a wet day, but we’re not expecting any severe weather. We’ll nail down timing as we get a little closer.

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Rain Continues Off/On Through Tomorrow Morning

Note: Today is the first Saturday of the month, so you can expect the usual tornado siren tests in Metro at noon and Williamson County at 1:00 pm. With today’s rain, they may opt not to test, but if they do, that’s what’s up.

Our morning rain has slid south of us. As of this writing, radar shows most of the rain south of I-840 and moving east. This radar image will be outdated the moment I publish, but it gives you an idea of where the rain is sitting this morning (10:32 am).

HRRR thinks most of the steadier rain stays away today and picks back up tonight into the early morning hours Sunday. Loop through 3 am Sunday:

After this system passes Sunday morning, we should be dry for a few days. Maybe some sprinkles on Tuesday, but no big deal.

The next rain chance looks to be Thursday into Friday.

Temps

Temperatures don’t look crazy. Pretty tame for this time of year. We should stay above freezing, and daytime temps seem relatively comfortable.

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Scattered Rain This Weekend

We have two opportunities for rain in this forecast. One begins early tomorrow morning and ends sometime Sunday. The other comes late next week, say Thursday.

The Weekend

Early tomorrow morning, showers should be approaching us. Initially, the rain will be light and scattered. The rain will likely fill in at various times and drop periods of moderate rain. It’s hard at this juncture to pin down exactly when the more solid rounds of rain will come through. If you have outdoor plans, just keep an eye on radar. https://nashvillesevereweather.com/radar/

HRRR thinks the rain will look like this. Loop from 3:00 am Saturday – noon Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday night should be dry and fairly comfortable temp-wise (for Jan.).

Late week Rain

Another system comes through Thursday. This one could drop temps behind it, but we’re not sure yet how much.

Temps

Not bad really. Pretty typical for this time of year.

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Couple of Rounds of Rain, None Heavy

It’s a bit of a relief to not have much to write about. No severe weather with this forecast and no flood threat. Just….the usual.

Two Rounds of Rain

A window for rain chances opens Friday night and closes Sunday morning. Rain chances are fairly low each day, and total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to be wellll below half an inch, maybe not even a quarter inch, according to the blend of models. This could change. But, this is what we’re aiming for as of today.

Another window for rain chances opens Monday night and Tuesday, but again, it looks pretty light. More on this as we get closer.

Otherwise, temps are not too far away from average. Nothing really notable.

This time last year

Incidentally, this time last year we were gearing up for what would be the second of three 5 inch snows at our house last season. Brrrr

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