I’ve always loved the rhythm of the seasons in Middle Tennessee. The cold, the heat, and the in between. Right now is the in between. Mornings are comfortable, but sunburns are on tap in the afternoon. read more

• It’s getting hot. Wed – Thu may approach record daily high temps for May 11 and 12. Current forecast a few degrees below the records. Mow today, stay cool tomorrow.

• Humidity mid/upper 50°s except for Tuesday afternoon/evening when it gets to Sticky territory.

• Yesterday I wrote no rain until maybe Sat but now a few models show isolated showers Weds. NWS not yet ready to say yeah it may rain Weds. They’re waiting to see if more data trends that way.
• Still think next best rain chance maybe random pop ups Saturday afternoon, more likely Sunday with a weaksauce cold front passing thru. Model data reliability isn’t great rn, too low res for “will my event be impacted” questions which we can answer if you would like guesses and/or lies.

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Weather changes constantly.
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This GIF this works today.

Momjeans not ideal Tuesday when the dewpoint gets into the low 60°s Tuesday with an afternoon high 88°.

91° Wednesday would break the May 11 daily record (90°) set all the way back in 2016. read more

It’s going to be cooler today due to some clouds and a front that moved in last night. Today’s high will be around 65 and for the low, we will reach down to the upper 40s.

The HRRR shows no measurable rainfall, but expect drizzle to continue today. read more

Moist, unstable, storm powering air will lift north into Middle Tennessee this afternoon:

Storms approaching from the west will tap this power source. Heavy rain, lightning, and severe weather are all possible later this afternoon into the early evening. read more

New data arrived over the past few hours. Below see forecast changes.

During lunch SPC introduced tornado, hail, and damaging straight line wind risks for Thursday afternoon/early evening.

The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 5%.
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NAM3 and HRRR models think storms will fire up mid afternoon Thursday in Middle Tennessee. Both models include storms in Davidson and Williamson Counties. One model thinks another line of storms will arrive Friday morning after AM rush hour. I am not sold on the timing of any of this. Never tell me the odds! read more