#1 That “H” in the Atlantic is known as a Bermuda High. High pressure suppresses rain chances.
#2 That “L” is a surface low. It has caused major flooding in Louisiana. It is pulling moisture in from the Gulf and creating a flash flood threat for those to our west and southwest.
Afternoon showers that develop will quickly collapse and not pose much of a problem for evening plans. Expect mostly dry conditions with temperatures cooling back through the 80s.
A cold front will be on the approach from the northwest, and the tropical low we’ve been discussing all week long will inch closer to our area. These two systems are expected to merge over the weekend, so throughout this process we can anticipate *at least* scattered storm activity. Additionally, if you are traveling west or northwest over the next few days, you can expect to run into rain at some point.
Like clockwork, any rain will end quickly as we lose daytime heating this evening. Temperatures will fall through the low to mid 80s for any outdoor plans, but it will still be quite humid.
The chance for thunderstorms will increase slightly on Thursday in accordance with another slug of moisture that swings our way from the Gulf of Mexico. To better visualize this, check out the PWAT values (note: “PWAT” is short for precipitable water…known as the “measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location…”).
The radar relocated to the bottom of the page. I got sick of looking at it at the top.
The front that was making me rain-nervous for those along and S of 40 has finally dropped along 840, as seen here at 4:16 PM:
Tonight looks fine for outdoor activities. Any rain that develops will move south.
Drier air arrives, shoving dewpoints out of the 70°s and into the still-humid upper 60°s. Rain is not expected.
Dew points will return into the low 70°s. Gross.
NWS-Nashville wrote today:
Will carry chance probabilities of precipitation all week due to no one day/area seeing a better shot than the next.
Meaning, it may rain each day, but we don’t really know when. If you read this, maybe the odds are higher Tuesday. I can’t explain that.
Afternoon/Early evenings more likely to produce rain. Maybe too much rain:
While the threat for severe weather will be low, we will need to monitor the rainfall accumulations each day. The cumulative totals throughout the week could end up causing some very localized flooding issues.
For no good reason, I put the radar at the bottom of this page.
A front passed by last night, so today we get a north breeze. That breeze is really only happening north of I-40.
You’d think a north breeze would mean cooler, drier air, but when the weather balloon went up this morning, the dew point was SEVENTY FIVE.
Current Radar
Showers and storms are in the area and more continue to build to our north. We’ll have to watch those as they sink southward, keeping evening plans in mind. It’ll be safer than not to have an umbrella on hand if you plan to be outside.
