Watching The Supercells

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To help ease the “crash” problem (we’ll fix this issue in the future), I’ve pared this page down to essential info only.

  • A Particularly Dangerous Situation” (PDS) Tornado Watch is in effect for southern Middle Tennessee until 9 PM. This includes those counties just S of Williamson. Both Davidson & Williamson Counties are currently excluded from the Watch.
  • There’s a “boundary,” stretched west to east across Middle Tennessee, separating warm/humid/unstable air to the south from cooler/less humid/more stable air to the north. Those along and S of the boundary are included in the Tornado Watch. Those north of it are excluded from the Tornado Watch.
  • At 2:30 PM, the boundary was located about 40 miles south of I-40. The boundary is mostly stationary, or maybe edging very slowly N. Storms feed off the warm/humid/unstable air currently located S of the boundary. This means we are currently on the “good” (North) side of the boundary.
  • Tornadic supercells in central Mississippi at 2:30 PM will move rapidly NE into southern Middle Tennessee around 4 PM. We will be watching those supercells in case (1) the boundary lifts N into Nashville, paving the way for the supercells, and/or (2) the supercells punch N through the boundary and into Williamson, and maybe Davidson, Counties. We’re hopeful these storms, if they continue their current course, will miss us comfortably to the south and southeast. We’re also hopeful we won’t heat up fast enough to develop our own supercells.
  • No Warnings will be posted to this website. Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter, and multiple other reliable weather sources, for more information.
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    New Info on Severe Weather Potential Sunday, Monday, & Tuesday

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    Special Severe Weather Update

    NWS-Nashville’s Afternoon Forecast Discussion led off with this:

    As we wrote this morning — We want to balance the goal of raising awareness/encouraging preparedness with the risk of over-hyping this event. The details of what will happen remain fuzzy. There is significant potential, but answers to questions about ETAs, local impacts, and types of storm modes (tornadoes, hail, high winds, flash flooding) do not exist. This is a situation where the storms which form Sunday will impact what will happen Monday. What we see Monday will impact what happens Tuesday. read more