Special Severe Weather Update
NWS-Nashville’s Afternoon Forecast Discussion led off with this:
As we wrote this morning — We want to balance the goal of raising awareness/encouraging preparedness with the risk of over-hyping this event. The details of what will happen remain fuzzy. There is significant potential, but answers to questions about ETAs, local impacts, and types of storm modes (tornadoes, hail, high winds, flash flooding) do not exist. This is a situation where the storms which form Sunday will impact what will happen Monday. What we see Monday will impact what happens Tuesday.
Writing about Sunday night, our NWS said: “localized damaging winds and hail will be the main concern,” possibly in the form of a late night squall line.
Storms may be ongoing in the morning, leftover from the night before, followed by a break in the activity around midday. Then, by late afternoon, “rapid supercell development is possible from the ArkLaMiss (where Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi meet) up into western Middle Tennessee.”
Then “the stage will be set in Middle Tennessee for local storm development . . . along with the arrival of mature supercells from our southwest.” These storms may form into clusters; however, “forecast models are in good agreement with parameters supporting supercells in Middle Tennessee.”
Supercells are independent, typically fast moving, rotating thurnderstorms. These can produce tornadoes of all sizes, strength, and duration. They also deposit heavy rain rates, hail, strong non-tornadic winds, and frequent lightning. We. Do. Not. Want.
This activity is forecast to continue into Monday evening.
Although the threat is thought to be lower than Monday’s threat, “severe weather remains a possibility” Tuesday. The forecast for Tuesday is the most murky because it is largely dependent on what happens Monday.
This morning, the Storm Prediction Center wrote “the potential exists for a severe weather outbreak including strong tornadoes.” See the technical discussion below or click here. This will be updated early tomorrow morning.
Don’t forget about the flash flooding potential. Outdoor league administrators, coaches, and almost-7-year-old boys-who-love-baseball should prepare for the high likelihood of Monday & Tuesday rainouts.
This weekend, and especially Sunday, you should glue/staple yourself to multiple reliable sources of weather information. Have a wake me up app (see our scrolling banner for iOS; I like iMap Weather Radio on Droid) and a NOAA weather radio. Know now where you will go in case of a tornado warning. A good preparedness kit includes many things, and don’t forget shoes, helmets (especially for kids), your charged phone, drivers’ license/debit card, and flashlights.
We’ll be wearing out this website through the weekend.
Don’t freak out. Be prepared, just in case.
Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Current Radar Loops
Local radar loop includes live severe weather warning
Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Saturday’s marathon looks awesome. Low humidity, under under 50° at the start, mid 70°s around noon, no rain, and only a few clouds.
This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.
Categories: Forecast Blogs