Summary: Windy Monday – Severe Weather in 2 Rounds – Round 1: late afternoon/early evening Monday – Round 2: main squall line ETA 3 AM to 6 AM Tuesday morning – Damaging Winds, Torrential Rain, Tornadoes possible in both rounds.
All Eyes On Tomorrow Night: 2 Potential Rounds of Storms
Severe Weather Possible Today, Likely Tomorrow
2:42 PM – The National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement for both Davidson and Williamson Counties for Monday into Tuesday morning.
2:30 PM – The Storm Prediction Center put out a Mesoscale Discussion that included Middle Tennessee. It has confirmed, however, that the system has missed us to the east.
Rainy Weekend; Stormy/Severe Monday
Current Temp
Current Radar Loops
Saturday – Mid 60s – Rain
Rain will be here mid-morning, and should continue off and on through most of the afternoon and evening. The HRRR model thinks there may be a break in the rain by mid afternoon. If you have outdoor activities planned, I suggest you just watch for gaps in the rain on the above radar loops.
Trying to Tackle When/Where/What re Weekend Rain
Current Temp
Current Radar
Today – Heavy Rain– High 76°
This morning’s rain is from a wave bringing instability, moisture, and warm temps — atypical for October. The wave can be seen tracking to the northeast into Nashville on the NAM’s 10 AM vertical uplift map.
Wet Weather Ahead
What is a gust front?
Suppose you have a cluster of storms producing heavy rain, like we saw this morning.
When that rain falls, it brings wind with it. That wind hits the ground and has to go somewhere, so it moves away from the storm. And because there is rain-cooled air in the storm, what we get is rain-cooled air moving along the surface and away from the parent storm.
Last Dry Day This Week
Dry Today — Rain Chances Return Thursday — Rain Likely Friday & Through the Weekend
A line of noisy thunderstorms rolled through Middle Tennessee late last night. For the heavy sleepers this isn’t a problem, but for wx nerds and light sleepers it is. Justin Bruce from WKRN had an excellent point:
Last Day This Week.
A line of noisy thunderstorms rolled through Middle Tennessee late last night. For the heavy sleepers this isn’t a problem, but for wx nerds and light sleepers it is. Our friend Justin Bruce from WKRN had an excellent point!
Rain, Storms Overnight
Overnight – Rain/Storms
Current Radar
A cold front will push showers and storms into our area while we sleep (sometime around 2 AM).
Our NWS points out “a few of these could become severe…mainly hailers.” In fact, there is a good bit of rotation in the atmosphere, and one of the cells has been tornado warned. A tornado here is unlikely, but will need to be monitored.
More Rain, Storms Tomorrow, Plus A Review of Y’alls Photos from Monday
Current Radar
At 8:45 PM, storm activity was diminishing or otherwise moving east of us. The question is: are we done with the storms?
Probably not. Even though there is nothing on the radar to our W and NW, and only very scattered storms are expected over the region while we sleep (any storms we get may be severe, with hail the main threat), more rain/storms are expected Tuesday.
More Storms?
We’ve switched to running commentary mode, in purple. No during-the-storm coverage will appear here. This is forecast info. Follow us @NashSevereWx on Twitter, and watch local TV.
At 6:36 PM the Storm Prediction Center issued a MD for Middle Tennessee.
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