Just finished the NWS week-ahead briefing. Here’s what’s up:
Rainfall totals over the weekend:
No river or creek in Davidson or Williamson County is expected to rise further. Here are three (actually, four) examples to put your mind at ease.
No rain expected through Wednesday night:
Temps will top out in the upper 70s or low 80s Monday through Wednesday. A small chance of rain arrives Wednesday through Saturday. No severe weather in the forecast.
Several Flood Advisories and Warnings remain in effect this morning. Water can still rise and remain dangerous even after the rain has stopped. Water packs tremendous power, respect it. Don’t drive through it. Flooding reports continue to pour in to the NWS.
Rain is likely overnight tonight as we sleep. So says the Hi-Res NAM (4 AM):
Several other models say the same thing — rain piles in during the middle of the night, and slowly moves across the area in the morning through noon. It finally departs sometime tomorrow afternoon/early evening.
The steady rain is moving out. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk of severe weather for us this afternoon and tonight.
The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 2%:
Plan for rain.
The NWS forecasts rain at 7 a.m. Four weather models agree:
HRRR:
RAP:
Hi-Res NAM:
SREF: holds the heaviest rain until mid-morning.
Over 1/2″ is expected to fall from 7am to 1pm Saturday:
Because this is the eve of the Country Music Marathon, Franklin’s Main Street Festival, countless baseball, soccer, [insert preferred outdoor sport] games, let’s go way overboard with the weather models. We’ll ask the weather models about Tonight, Sat 7 a.m., Sat 1p.m., and Sat 7 p.m. Sunday’s forecast is mentioned at the end.
Rain is very likely Saturday. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall Saturday morning, during the Country Music Marathon. Here are the models:
European: Rain arrives Friday night and lasts through Saturday morning. By 7 a.m., the rain is along and south of I-40 (see below).
GFS and European wx models have been predicting rain Saturday morning. Today, there are other models now in range of the weekend. So, let’s dig in:
Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts light rain all morning. Earlier this week, this model was calling for 4 times as much rain.
(Updated around 8pm Tuesday night)
Earlier today the models suggested the rain would arrive early Wednesday morning. Tonight’s model runs suggest the rain may hold off until mid morning.
For example, the WRF delivers us the heaviest rain around 1pm: