The steady rain is moving out. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk of severe weather for us this afternoon and tonight.
The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 2%:
The probability of 1″+ hail within 25 miles of you is between 5% and 15%:
The probability of damaging winds (58mph+) within 25 miles of you is also between 5% and 15%:
The Hi-Res NAM shows a particularly nasty grouping of storms around 7pm:
The morning HRRR run shows the arrival of off and on showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight:
Do not make specific plans based on this model data. This is not guaranteeing dry weather exactly at 6 pm. The point is that you can expect a switch from a more constant rain to an off-on rain sometime tonight.
NOAA forecasts almost 2″ of rain through Sunday morning at 7 a.m.
Follow along on Twitter (@NashSevereWx) for more details with during-storm activity.
Categories: Forecast Blogs