At 11:16am, the Storm Prediction Center updated its outlook for severe weather today. The Slight Risk of severe weather remains:

Te probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you remains 2%:

read more

When the weather balloon went up this morning, it found plenty of severe weather ingredients. The Storm Prediction Center responded with its morning update. Here it is.

We are under a Slight Risk of severe weather today: read more

Models are suggesting off/on rain and thunderstorms tomorrow. They’ll be hit or miss.

For example, the RAP model at 10am keeps the showers west of us:

The Hi-Res NAM keeps the showers east of us:

The truth is probably somewhere in between.

Rain/Storms will increase with daytime heating, then wither away as the sun goes down. Storms are capable of hail and straight-line winds. Our NWS:

INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AND WE COULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY NIGHTFALL. read more

Temps will climb into the 80s, with increasing humidity. Wednesday and Thursday will feel more like summer than spring. With that comes a decent chance of afternoon pop-up showers, or maybe a thunderstorm. There are two chances of severe weather: Tuesday and Thursday night into Friday morning. read more

Monday – Thursday

High temps will be in the low 80s, with only a slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower or thunderstorm Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Here’s the NWS weather-speak for Monday through Thursday:

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SPELL ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS THRU THAT
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

The Big Cold Front

Our NWS expects a cold front to arrive during the wee hours of Friday morning.  The storm is expected to have little CAPE (thunderstorm building blocks), but there will be a lot of wind shear and plenty of moisture to work with.

This means

[WE] COULD SEE LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS MINOR FLASH FLOODING. read more

Tomorrow will be another beauty, with a high of 78.  Then…

We may see the 80s Monday afternoon: the high is 79. Tuesday we’ll make it to 82. Wednesday’s high is 84.  There’s a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. read more

Glorious Weekend

Our NWS issued a Frost Advisory, effective Saturday morning from 4am to 8am. Here’s why:

WITH NEARLY FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW 40 DEGREES MOST AREAS, WITH FROST DEVELOPING BY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO 33-37 DEGREES IN OUTLYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU, HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE 09Z-13Z [4AM-8AM] PERIOD. read more

It’s almost time to sing it!

As of 445pm, the back edge of the rain was along or E of the Tennessee River. It’ll take some time for it finally trudge off to the east. Rain should end by or soon after dark, with only spotty showers after that. read more

If any more severe weather develops, we’ll let you know. Most of the severe weather we were worried about has passed. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch in middle TN does not include us:

Expect rain for the rest of the afternoon with an occasional lightning strike. read more

Watch the above banner for any Advisories or Warnings.

Expect a line (or a few small lines) of storms today. Main storm impacts will include:

• Damaging straight line winds.
• Heavy rain and perhaps localized flash flooding due to the slow movement and “training” of the storms.
• Isolated tornadoes.
• Multiple clusters of storms – not a classic “one line” of storms.

The severe development should begin along and near I-65, then move east. So, a storm may not become severe until they reach Davidson or Williamson Counties, then move east (where the severe risk is greater). read more