Current Radar
Today we broke the record high for December 27, 76°, laying down the 75° set in 1982.
Rain should begin sometime late tonight, last into the wee hours of the morning, and continue in full force into the afternoon. Note this is not expected to be a continuous rain, but we’ve seen so much these past several days, we can’t take much more and avoid a flooding event. (This is NOTHING like what we saw in May 2010).
Current Radar
Today’s question is “when the rain will arrive?”
The HRRR model thinks it’ll show up after dark:
If we freeze frame the HRRR model at 2 PM . . .
Current Radar
We set another record high temp today: 75°, breaking the record of 73° set in 1875.
We will remain unseasonably warm Sunday. NWS is forecasting another high of 75°. If that happens, it’ll set another daily record high.
Today: Drying out. High 75º
We should trend toward less rain today. However, it may not feel very dry, as humidity levels will remain high. Still no rain is better than lots of rain so we’ll take it.
Current Radar
For that reason, the Areal Flood Watch now in effect for Davidson and Williamson Counties will continue. Here’s the official text of the Watch:
As the front comes back north, we should see some rain, but model guidance hasn’t been much/any help to determine when or how much. Not looking for much more rain from this, but we certainly aren’t dry.
Current Radar
Heavy rain is here.
An Areal Flood Watch is now in effect for Davidson and Williamson Counties.Here’s the official text of the Watch:
Flooding potential seems limited by the unexpected arrival of a cold front:
Current Radar
Heavy rain is on the way.
Flooding potential remains high in areas in and around the Watch area. Here’s the official text of the Watch:
Rainfall will be heavy. Forecast soundings show all time high precipitable water values for Christmas Day: 1.7″. Think of precipitable water like this. If you stuffed a towel in a giant tube, sent the tube straight up in the air through the atmosphere and let it soak up the moisture, then squeezed it out, you’d get 1.7″ of water.
Current Radar
NWS-Nashville’s Area Forecast Discussion this morning led off with:
The cold front that triggered last night’s severe weather has come and gone. It cleared the clouds and sucked out the humidity (dew point has dropped 14° since last night), but the warm temps remain.
Current Radar
Active weather remains a concern Friday and Monday or Tuesday of next week, although likely not nearly as worrisome as it has been today.
Anyway, I’m exhausted, no energy to update the forecast here on the website.
Current Radar
If you don’t know what that is or what to do, click this.
The Watch will expire at 11 PM tonight.
The ETA of the storms approaching Middle Tennessee is between 6:30 PM and 7:30 PM. Those north of I-40 may see these storms arrive closer to 6:30 PM. Though south of I-40 may see the storms arrive closer to 7:30 PM.