Current Radar
So far so good on the radar with no showers around our area. Tonight will be much of the same as what could be said for this afternoon. May get a few scattered showers thrown our way this evening; as always, we will let you know if we see any showers developing that could reach us.
A humid, but not too unstable, airmass is atop us this afternoon. This means a few isolated rainers have been racing north. This will continue through the afternoon, then start to die down (but not completely killed off) overnight. Any rain we get will be of little consequence.
#1 That “H” in the Atlantic is known as a Bermuda High. High pressure suppresses rain chances.
#2 That “L” is a surface low. It has caused major flooding in Louisiana. It is pulling moisture in from the Gulf and creating a flash flood threat for those to our west and southwest.
70° dewpoints are not going anywhere today or next week. We are trapped inside a tropical and humid airmass. These dewpoints have been around for a few weeks, and truth be told, we are acclimating. Still, you’re going to sweat alot, don’t be a hero, hydrate.
Afternoon showers that develop will quickly collapse and not pose much of a problem for evening plans. Expect mostly dry conditions with temperatures cooling back through the 80s.
A cold front will be on the approach from the northwest, and the tropical low we’ve been discussing all week long will inch closer to our area. These two systems are expected to merge over the weekend, so throughout this process we can anticipate *at least* scattered storm activity. Additionally, if you are traveling west or northwest over the next few days, you can expect to run into rain at some point.
Update: The peak of the Perseid meteor shower is late tonight into early Friday morning. Short term models are indicating any afternoon cloud cover should clear out enough to see some of tonight’s show. Stay tuned to @NashSevereWx on Twitter for further updates.
Like clockwork, any rain will end quickly as we lose daytime heating this evening. Temperatures will fall through the low to mid 80s for any outdoor plans, but it will still be quite humid.
The chance for thunderstorms will increase slightly on Thursday in accordance with another slug of moisture that swings our way from the Gulf of Mexico. To better visualize this, check out the PWAT values (note: “PWAT” is short for precipitable water…known as the “measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location…”).
Lingering afternoon storms will begin to wane as we approach sunset. Temperatures should be a degree or two cooler in areas that do receive rain, so expect low 80s to upper 70s by late evening.
Afternoon rain has developed, mainly east, but some storms may stray to the west. We should see this activity dissipate, especially after sunset. Expect temps to fall back through the 80s for the remainder of the evening, as we hope to dry out.
The radar relocated to the bottom of the page. I got sick of looking at it at the top.
The front that was making me rain-nervous for those along and S of 40 has finally dropped along 840, as seen here at 4:16 PM:
Tonight looks fine for outdoor activities. Any rain that develops will move south.
Drier air arrives, shoving dewpoints out of the 70°s and into the still-humid upper 60°s. Rain is not expected.
Dew points will return into the low 70°s. Gross.
NWS-Nashville wrote today:
Will carry chance probabilities of precipitation all week due to no one day/area seeing a better shot than the next.
Meaning, it may rain each day, but we don’t really know when. If you read this, maybe the odds are higher Tuesday. I can’t explain that.
Afternoon/Early evenings more likely to produce rain. Maybe too much rain:
While the threat for severe weather will be low, we will need to monitor the rainfall accumulations each day. The cumulative totals throughout the week could end up causing some very localized flooding issues.