Winter Weather Advisory Canceled; High Temp Mon Afternoon: 7

Current Official Hourly Observation:

5:30 PM Update

We still may see some snow tonight. The cold front as arrived, and now “back edge” precip has developed, which may be changing to snow.

Additional info will be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

4:30 PM Update

Tonight  –  COLD

6p 39 . 9p 24 . 12a 17 . 3a 12 

Wind Chills:  6p 34 . 9p 11 . 12a 3 . 3a -4 

The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for snow. 1/2″ may still accumulate, but that’s unlikely. All the models the last few days were at least calling for a dusting, but even that appears unlikely.

We remain under a Wind Advisory for sustained winds at 15 – 25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph.

image3

HRRR model had snow arriving at 6 PM this evening (below Sunday 4 pm – 11 pm), but recent radar trends do not support this solution.

image16

However, a FLASH FREEZE is still a concern for tonight as temps tumble below freezing. Anything wet will freeze within a couple hours once temps fall below 32 degrees.

Monday – *Wind Chill Warning*  – Dangerous Cold  Morning Low 3 / High 7 (Actually, we’ll reach our high temp at 12:01 AM Monday: 17).

Temps: 6a . 9a 4 . 12p 6 . 3p 6 . 6p 5 . 9p 4

Wind Chills:  6a -13 . 9a -14 . 12p . -12 . 3p -11 . 6p -12 . 9p -12

Screen Shot 2014-01-05 at 4.46.44 PM

Tuesday – *Wind Chill Advisory* – Bitter Cold  Morning Low 1 / Afternoon High 17

Temps: 6a . 9a 7 . 12p 14 . 3p 17 . 6p 16 . 9p 15

Wind Chills:  6a -10 . 9a -4 . 12p . 5 . 3p 8 . 6p 6 . 9p 4

Extended Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-05 at 4.53.06 PM

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Less Snow, but Historically & Dangerously Cold Monday

Current Official Hourly Observation:

9:38 PM NWS Forecast Discussion

Read full text here.

9:30 PM Update

The models continue to do some

GFS only gives us a dusting through Monday at 6 AM:

Hi-Res NAM model has meager snow totals:

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast (the “SREF,” it’s a model) thinks the most we’ll get is 2″ to 3″:

However, this is unlikely. Current trends indicate the rain will hurriedly exit Middle TN before the freezing temps arrive in time to change it to snow. That’s what our NWS Is referring to here:

The SREF minimum snowfall totals go from a dusting to nothing:

Any precip on the ground from Sunday’s rain/snow will freeze and make travel hazardous.

It appears the legacy of this storm system will be the brutally cold temperatures behind the front, arriving late Sunday night through Tuesday. The forecast temps in the 6:30 PM update below remain current.

6:30 PM Update

Tonight  – Cool & Clouds Building In  Midnight temp 38

Not very much going on ahead of tomorrow’s massive cold front. Winds are out of the south at 5 mph.

image11

Consider tonight your last chance to prep:

Prep checklist:

  • Plan not to drive! 70% of deaths during a snow/ice events occur in automobiles.
  • Full tank of gas in the car. May seem counter intuitive since I’m telling you not to drive, but let’s be prepared.
  • Check your car battery or get it replaced, severe cold kills it. (I’m in Canada at the moment. First below zero day and our car battery died. Got it replaced and the guy told us they have changed over 400 car batteries because of this severe cold in just 1 day.)
  • Enough food through at least Wednesday, when temps will finally get above freezing. (Editor’s Note: @PanicCatfish may have already bought it all).
  • Extra water in case you have a busted pipe and loose water. (We use to clean the bathtub, close and duck tape the drain and fill it with water.
  • Disconnect your garden hoses. This helps prevent pipes from freezing.
  • Wrap any exposed outdoor pipes.
  • Plan to being the pets indoors for the next few days.
  • Keep extra medication around.
  • Check your fireplace and all heating equipment.

Sunday – *Winter Weather Advisory* – Rain Changing to Snow, Then Historically & Dangerously Cold  Morning Low 35 / Afternoon High 51

6a 36 . 9a 40 . 12p 47 . 3p 45 . 6p 34 . 9p 24

The snowmaking weather system is moving a little bit slower than we thought it would this morning. The delay means less snow, arriving later in the day Sunday.

Rain should begin off and on in the morning, probably by mid-morning, but the bulk of the rain activity will begin after noon.

As for temperatures, Sunday will begin above freezing. Our high temp will happen sometime after 1 PM, when we’ll make it somewhere around 50. Late Sunday afternoon/early evening, the bottom will fall out. We’ll hit 35 by 6 PM, 24 by 9 PM, and 19 at midnight.

This is called a FLASH FREEZE! Roads, puddles, and anything wet will quickly freeze, within a couple hours of the cold front passing.

When winds shift from out of the south to out of the northwest, you’ll know the cold front is arriving. Winds will be 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. This is expected to happen while the precip is still working its way through middle TN, changing the rain from sleet to snow.

We don’t recommend travel after 3 PM. Don’t get caught in the storm.

*Winter Weather Advisory*

Our NWS is expecting snow to arrive anywhere from 3 pm to 6 pm:

image16

It will not take long for road conditions to rapidly deteriorate.

If you absolutely don’t have a choice and you need to venture out:

  • Remove any snow or ice off the vehicle, even the top of your car. This will make you more visible to other drivers.
  • Let someone know when you leave, where you are going, the route you plan taking, and when you arrive.
  • Drive slow and use caution. You may be the best driver in the world, but everyone else may be terrible drivers.
  • When breaking on snow or ice, don’t just hit the breaks or you will slide. Pump the breaks repeatedly to come to a safe, controlled stop.
  • Keep blankets in your car.
  • Have food and water with you.
  • Have a fully charged cell phone.
  • And just don’t drive if there is no need to. #SafetyFirst

We still think this will be a dry powder snow skiers love, but snowmen-builders hate. This type of snow can really get whipped around by the winds. Visibilities will be very low at times, made worse by the loss of daylight.

GFS Sunday 12 pm – Monday 6 am:

Hi-Res NAM model Sunday 12 pm – Sunday 9 pm:

How much snow are we expecting?

As of this afternoon, our NWS forecasted 1″ to 2″ inches of snow, with some possibly seeing 3 inches:

image7

Accumulations are trending downward. Don’t expect much snow.

Planning to sled? Don’t. It’ll be dark before all the snow has fallen, there won’t be much of it, and temps will drop dramatically. It won’t be any fun.

Cold temps are the real concern.

Monday – Flurries, Wind Bitter Cold  Morning Low 3 / Afternoon High 7

6a 6 . 9a 4 . 12p 6 . 3p 6 . 6p 5 . 9p 3

*Wind Chill Advisory* – Monday 12 am – Tuesday 8 am.

Wind Chills: 6a -13 . 9a 13 . 12p -13 . 3p -12 . 6p -12 . 9p -12 . 12a -10

Those are all minus signs.

The winds will cut you in half. 15 mph sustained with gusts of 25 mph! Do not be outside.

Don’t let the kids play in the snow — it will be too cold!!!!!!!! Can’t stress this enough!

image9

There could be a few flurries in the morning. Blowing snow could be a problem. 

We are forecast to break the record minimum high of 10 degrees set back in 1884 for this day.

Extended Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-04 at 6.04.00 PM

From our NWS:

Yeah, more snow is possible late Wednesday/early Thursday. But, one thing at a time : )

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Accumulating Snow, then Brutal, Don’t-Go-Outside COLD!

Current Official Hourly Observation:

Today  – Sunny & Breezy  Afternoon High 46

9a 29 . 12p 40 . 3p 45 . 6p 42 . 9p 40

This is the calm before the storm.

image10

Consider today your prep day:

Prep checklist:

  • Plan not to drive! 70% of deaths during a snow/ice events occur in automobiles.
  • Full tank of gas in the car. May seem counter intuitive since I’m telling you not to drive, but let’s be prepared.
  • Check your car battery or get it replaced, severe cold kills it. (I’m in Canada at the moment. First below zero day and our car battery died. Got it replaced and the guy told us they have changed over 400 car batteries because of this severe cold in just 1 day.)
  • Enough food through at least Wednesday, when temps will finally get above freezing. (Editor’s Note: @PanicCatfish may have already bought it all).
  • Extra water in case you have a busted pipe and loose water.
  • Disconnect your garden hoses. This helps prevent pipes from freezing.
  • Wrap any exposed outdoor pipes.
  • Plan to being the pets indoors for the next few days.
  • Keep extra medication around.
  • Check your fireplace and all heating equipment.

Roads will be snow covered by Sunday afternoon. Snow will not be melting the next day like it normally does, due to the severe cold behind the approaching cold front.

As for today, we will be fairly windy, 10 – 15 mph sustained wind with gusts up to 30 mph.

There could be some light rain or snow after midnight, but this is not what we are worried about.

Sunday – *Winter Weather Advisory* – Rain Changing to Snow, Then Dangerous Cold  Morning Low 35 / High 42

6a 41 . 9a 41 . 12p 39 . 3p 35 . 6p 29 . 9p 23

We will start the day above freezing. Our high temp will happen sometime around noon, then the bottom will fall out.

When the cold front arrives around noon, winds will change directions, coming out of the northwest at 20-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph! #BlowingSnow

Don’t plan to travel after noon. Attention preachers: NO LONG SERMONS.

*Winter Weather Advisory*

Goes into effect Sunday at noon and expires at midnight.

Sometime between noon and 4 PM, rain will quickly change over sleet, then snow. It will not take long for road conditions to rapidly deteriorate.

This will be a dry powder snow that skiers love, but snowmen-builders hate. Snow can really get whipped around by the strong winds. Visibilities will be very low at times.

Our NWS is expecting snow to arrive anywhere from noon to 4 pm:

image16

If you absolutely don’t have a choice and you need to venture out:

  • Remove any snow or ice off the vehicle, even the top of your car. This will make you more visible to other drivers.
  • Let someone know when you leave, where you are going, the route you plan taking, and when you arrive.
  • Drive slow and use caution. You may be the best driver in the world, but everyone else may be terrible drivers.
  • When breaking on snow or ice, don’t just hit the breaks or you will slide. Pump the breaks repeatedly to come to a safe, controlled stop.
  • Keep blankets in your car.
  • Have food and water with you.
  • Have a fully charged cell phone.
  • And just don’t drive if there is no need to. #SafetyFirst

Hi-Res NAM model Sunday 7 am – Monday 12 am:

GFS Sunday 6 am – Monday 6 am:

How much of the white stuff are we expecting?

As of this morning, our NWS forecasts 2-3 inches of snow, with some possibly seeing 4 inches:

image7

Hi-Res NAM snowfall totals through Monday 6 am: almost 2″:

hires_snow_acc_nashville_18

Monday – Bitter Cold  Morning Low 3 / Afternoon High 8

6a 6 . 9a 5 . 12p 7 . 3p 8 . 6p 6 . 9p 5

There could be a few flurries in the morning. Blowing snow could be a problem.

image9

The winds will cut you in half! 15 mph sustained with gusts of 25 mph! Do not be outside.

Don’t let the kids play in the snow — it will be too cold!!!!!!!! Can’t stress this enough! 

Wind chill values of -14 to -9 all day and night. Those are minus signs.

We are forecast to break the record minimum high of 10 degrees set back in 1884 for this day.

Extended Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-04 at 8.12.16 AM

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Rain-to-Snow Sunday; Severe Cold Monday & Tuesday

Current Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight  – Clear & Cold  Midnight Temp 23

Wind chills will drop into the teens tonight. Those will seem warm compared to what’s up ahead…

Saturday – Warmer, Mostly Clear, then Rain Late  Morning Low 18 / High 43

6a 20 . 9a 28 . 12p 39 . 3p 43 . 6p 41 . 9p 38

Wind chill of 11 at 6 AM! 

By noon, we will have warmed up nicely.

After that, winds between 5 and 15 mph will arrive, with gusts up to 25.

Light rain arrives after midnight. Although there’s an outside chance some wintry precipitation may mix in, it will be mostly rain through Sunday morning.

Sunday – Rain Changing to Snow  Morning Low 34 / Afternoon High 42

6a 37 . 9a 40 . 12p 42 . 3p 33 . 6p 23 . 9p 20

Winds will be strong: 10 to 20 mph sustained, with gusts up to 30 mph.

As mentioned above, we will start with all rain Sunday morning. Temps will again rise to around 40 at noon.

Sometime after noon, the arctic cold front will arrive. Notice the temp spreads above: 42 at noon, 33 at 3 PM.  Sometime during the afternoon, rain will change to sleet, then quickly switch to all snow. Snow may be heavy during this time. Accumulations vary depending on the weather model, with the GFS running between 2+”, and the Euro sticking to just 1″. (We ignored the NAM model for now, and the Canadian model isn’t quite in range)

Here’s the GFS model, which delivers snow in the afternoon (Sunday 12 am – Monday 12 am):

GFS model snow totals through Monday 6 am right around 2″:

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_12

The further north you are, the more snow you’ll see.

Official NWS forecast:

image5

With the variance in the models, these totals will be adjusted tomorrow and Sunday morning.

As soon as the changeover to snow happens, travel will quickly become hazardous. High winds will blow the snow around and limit visibility. I don’t recommend travel Sunday afternoon/evening.

This will be a powdery snow. It won’t pack well. Bad news for snowball/snowmen fans, but then again, I don’t think you should go outside Monday unless you have to.

Extended Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-03 at 9.08.11 PM

SEVERE COLD NEXT WEEK

These will be the coldest temps since 1994. This should not be taken lightly. Don’t go outside. Sometime tomorrow, protect faucets and disconnect garden hoses. Sunday, put your pets inside. For the record, I’m not letting my kids sled Monday. Temps will be dangerously cold, with wind chills ranging from 12 to -14. Monday, we’ll wake up to a wind chill at minus 11.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Snow & COLD Tonight. Snow Sunday. EPIC COLD Next Week.

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

@KeelyHall tweeted this photo of a supercold spot in Brentwood today:

Tonight  – Light Snow & BRRR  Midnight Temp 22

Attention snow lovers and non-lovers alike.  A special weather statement has been issued by our NWS.

@PanicCatfish get ready for this!

Screen Shot 2014-01-02 at 6.55.42 PM

Moisture has eased in on the backside of this system, causing light scattered snow showers.

No one saw this coming, not even our beloved HRRR model. We will see if anything shows up on the next run.

Up to an inch of snow along and east of I-65 is POSSIBLE.

This will mainly be on elevated grassy surfaces. Less traveled roads could become snow covered. Take it slow, some slick spots will be developing as temperatures continue to drop.

The winds that accompany the cold air behind the front will drive wind chills into the single digits tonight.

Check out HRRR model winds Thursday 6 pm – Friday 3 am (Blue 11+ mphGreen 23+ mph) :

Friday – C-O-L-D & Mostly Clear  Morning Low 15 / High 30

6a 18 . 9a 21 . 12p 26 . 3p 28 . 6p 26 . 9p 24

Wind chill of 6 in the morning! 

*The Intern Has Something Personal To Share* — Y’all got nothing on me! I am in Montreal, Canada. My high today was -13, with wind chill values of -42 to -33 so enjoy your “warm day”. Yes, I am frozenly jealous. *End*

Friday’s wind chill is not forecast to get above 26.

Saturday – Warmer; Rain Very Late  Morning Low 18 / Afternoon High 45

6a 22 . 9a 30 . 12p 40 . 3p 45 . 6p 42 . 9p 39

Thankfully, a warmer day once we get past the wind chill of 13 at 6am.

Rain/wintry mix chances begin after midnight.

Extended Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-02 at 7.20.49 PM

Sunday – It May Snow

The GFS model below is certainly a believer. It gives us 1.5″ of snow.

Canadian model is snow-stingy. It thinks we will stay almost all rain, with maybe a dusting on the back end, similar to what we kind-of saw this morning. It dusts us with 0.7″.

GFS model Sunday 6 am – Monday 6 am:

There is still a lot of time between now and Sunday. Keep checking back for updates as we get closer. It’s a snow forecast so it’ll probably change another 17 times.

FRIGID Next Week – We’ll see the coldest temps since 1996:

Monday morning , wind chill .

Monday afternoon’s high 14°, wind chill -4°.

Tuesday morning , wind chill -3°.

Tuesday’s afternoon high 18, wind chill.

Those “-” are minus signs.

RIP Uncle Phil

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

COLD Tonight. Snow Sunday. EPIC COLD Next Week.

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

@KeelyHall tweeted this photo of a supercold spot in Brentwood today:

Tonight  – Light SnowBRRR  Midnight Temp 22

Attention snow lovers and non-lovers alike.  A special weather statement has been issued by our NWS.

@PanicCatfish get ready for this!

Screen Shot 2014-01-02 at 6.55.42 PM

Moisture has eased in on the backside of this system, causing light scattered snow showers.

No one saw this coming, not even our beloved HRRR model. We will see if anything shows up on the next run.

Up to an inch of snow along and east of I-65 is POSSIBLE.

This will mainly be on elevated grassy surfaces. Less traveled roads could become snow covered. Take it slow, some slick spots will be developing as temperatures continue to drop.

The winds that accompany the cold air behind the front will drive wind chills into the single digits tonight.

Check out HRRR model winds Thursday 6 pm – Friday 3 am (Blue 11+ mph, Green 23+ mph) :

Friday – C-O-L-D & Mostly Clear  Morning Low 15 / High 30

6a 18 . 9a 21 . 12p 26 . 3p 28 . 6p 26 . 9p 24

Wind chill of 6 in the morning! 

*The Intern Has Something Personal To Share* — Y’all got nothing on me! I am in Montreal, Canada. My high today was -13, with wind chill values of -42 to -33 so enjoy your “warm day”. Yes, I am frozenly jealous. *End*

Friday’s wind chill is not forecast to get above 26.

Saturday – Warmer; Rain Very Late  Morning Low 18 / Afternoon High 45

6a 22 . 9a 30 . 12p 40 . 3p 45 . 6p 42 . 9p 39

Thankfully, a warmer day once we get past the wind chill of 13 at 6am.

Rain/wintry mix chances begin after midnight.

Extended Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-02 at 7.20.49 PM

Sunday – It May Snow

The GFS model below is certainly a believer. It gives us 1.5″ of snow.

Canadian model is snow-stingy. It thinks we will stay almost all rain, with maybe a dusting on the back end, similar to what we kind-of saw this morning. It dusts us with 0.7″.

GFS model Sunday 6 am – Monday 6 am:

There is still a lot of time between now and Sunday. Keep checking back for updates as we get closer. It’s a snow forecast so it’ll probably change another 17 times.

FRIGID Next Week – We’ll see the coldest temps since 1996:

Monday morning 9°, wind chill 4°.

Monday afternoon’s high 14°, wind chill -4°.

Tuesday morning 3°, wind chill -3°.

Tuesday’s afternoon high 18, wind chill 2°.

Those “-” are minus signs.

RIP Uncle Phil

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Rain, Snow, Wind, COLD: Tomorrow (meh) & Sunday (hmmm)

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight  – Chilly Rain  Midnight Temp 41

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE! 

Rain is starting to move into Middle TN tonight. It’s too warm for it to fall as snow.

HRRR model 9 pm tonight – 4 am Thursday:

Thursday – Rain/Snow & Wind  Morning Low 38 / High 40

6a 41 . 9a 39 . 12p 35 . 3p 32 . 6p 28 . 9p 25

Temps. Our high temperature will occur in the morning hours. Temps will drop all day.

Winds will increase with the arrival of the cold front. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph by the afternoon.

Precip. As mentioned above, rain will be around in the morning. It could begin to change over to snow as early as 7 AM, but it’s unlikely to stick until noon, when most of the rain has passed.

Keep in mind it can snow even if it’s not 32F at the surface. Freezing temps above the ground create snow. Flakes won’t have time to melt as they fall into the slightly-above-freezing temps at the surface.

We expect little or no accumulation; however, north of downtown may see a dusting. Not a single weather model shows more than a half inch of snow.

Official forecast from our NWS last updated early this afternoon:

image8

GFS model Thursday 12 am – Friday 12 am:

Update: 8:50 PM Discussion re all of Middle TN from our NWS (WAA = warm air advection; CWA = county warning area/Middle TN; WWA = Winter Weather Advisory).

Friday – COLD & Sunny  Morning Low 18 / Afternoon High 30

6a 19 . 9a 20 . 12p 25 . 3p 30 . 6p 27 . 9p 21

Wake-Up wind chills will be in the single digits.  The highest wind chill all day will be 23.

Extended Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-01 at 9.38.05 PM

Sunday

This snow storm is looking more promising (for snow lovers) than Thursday.

GFS model Sunday 12 am – Monday 12 am:

It’s impossible to say how much snow. The models still don’t agree on the timing, which is everything when it comes to snow forecasting.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Light Snow Thursday + “Good Chance” of More Snow Sunday/Monday

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight  – Cold & Clear

6p 38 . 9p 33 . 12a 31 . 3a 29 

Cold, but not too bad.

image5

New Year’s Day – Mostly Sunny, Warmer, Rain Very Late  Morning Low 24 / Afternoon High 51

6a 25 . 9a 34 . 12p 46 . 3p 51 . 6p 45 . 9p 41

A beautiful day until late Wednesday night, when south winds push clouds in. Rain won’t be far behind.

Hi-Res NAM model Wednesday 11 pm – Thursday 6 am:

Thursday – Light Snow/Rain Showers & Cold  Morning Low 24 / Afternoon High 51

6a 34 . 9a 34 . 12p 32 . 3p 30 . 6p 27 . 9p 24

Models, NWS, and I (The Intern!) are honing in on this possible snow forecast. We think it’s going to snow. Euro, American/GFS (below), and Canadian are all showing a dusting of snow accumulating no more than .5″.

Any snow should be around for awhile because temps will drop into the teens behind the front.

GFS (American) model Thursday 12 am – 6 pm:

 

If you’re hoping the snowfall will exceed 1″, you’ll probably be disappointed. So as not to be accused of party-pooping, here’s the encouraging WPC probability chart we’ll get more than a dusting:

Also wanted to share this LOL I saw referenced by fellow weather nerds at tennesseewx.com:

Eight inches of rain or snow? Both are funny.

Extended Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-31 at 4.31.27 PM

Another snow event could be in the making Sunday evening into Monday. Numerous discrepancies remain about temps and precip.

Our NWS (National Weather Service) has this to say:

Screen Shot 2013-12-31 at 5.35.22 PM

Earlier today, we mentioned the cracked-out Euro model with its minus 15s and 8+” of snow Tuesday morning. Whatever was broken with that model has now been fixed. The latest run of the Euro now has low temps in the 20s, with 1″ to 2″ of snow for Monday/Tuesday. Will that happen? We really don’t know, but at least the Euro sobered up and is being a bit more reasonable.

Finally, for no good reason: The most popular names for girls since 1960!

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

New Year’s Eve & Thursday’s Rain/Snow Chances

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

New Year’s Eve – Sunny –  Morning Low 23 / Afternoon High 45

6a 24 . 9a 31 . 12p 40 . 3p 44 . 6p 38 . 9p 33 . 12a 31

New Year’s Eve day will be sunny and warmer.

The evening skies will be clear and cold.

ar126220222276759

New Year’s Day – Mostly Sunny & Warmer  Morning Low 25 / Afternoon High 54

6a 26 . 9a 35 . 12p 46 . 3p 52 . 6p 47 . 9p 42

Southerly winds 5-15 mph will help warm us up through the day. It will also pump in a little bit of moisture that will lead to increasing clouds.

Extended Official NWS forecast:

The snow chances below are of no more than a dusting to 1/2″. Those to our NW are more likely to see snow. For us, it looks mostly like a rain event; however, the models have been varying back/forth, so stay tuned.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

A Watched Pot Never Boils

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Today – Rain Ends;  Mostly Cloudy –  Afternoon High 50 / Midnight Temp 34

9a 43 . 12p 48 . 3p 49 . 6p 42 . 9p 37

Yesterday’s rain is gone.

We may see a few patches of sun today.

A cold front arrives this evening. A few very unimpressive snowflakes may accompany the front.

The only model that was consistently advertising snowflakes – the Hi-Res NAM — is not even picking up on the flakes anymore.

The Titans game will be rain-free.

Here is the temperature map as the front passes Sunday 3 pm – Monday 12 am. The pinks/reds are freezing/below freezing.

Monday – Colder; Chance of Flurries? –  Morning Low 27 / Afternoon High 38

6a 29 . 9a 32 . 12p 36 . 3p 37 . 6p 33 . 9p 30

Wind Chills will be in the 20s all morning.

There’s a 20% there will be enough moisture to be wrung out of the atmosphere to produce a few flying flakes Monday morning, but I would not even think about it. Remember: a watched pot never boils.

Hi-Res NAM model (Monday 6 am – Monday 9 pm), below, shows the blue freezing line lifting north (putting us on the “warm” side) just as the light amount of moisture arrives:

Screen Shot 2013-12-29 at 9.05.13 AM

Tailgating my be a little drizzly (but probably not). The game will be cold: mid/upper 30s, with wind chills in the low 30s. We aren’t expecting any rain/snow.

Tuesday – Sunny & Chilly  Morning Low 24 / Afternoon High 44

6a 25 . 9a 31 . 12p 40 . 3p 43 . 6p 38 . 9p 34

Extended Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-29 at 9.09.51 AM

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.