Sunday Night sNOw Details, Titans & Music City Bowl Forecasts

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight – Rain Continues

Sunday – Rain Ends; Flurries Late? –  Morning Low 39 / Afternoon High 51

6a 40 . 9a 43 . 12p 49 . 3p 50 . 6p 42 . 9p 37

We should be clearing out by mid-morning. Titans tailgating should be mostly dry, but have rain gear handy if you’re going out early. The game should be dry, with a west wind (blowing from downtown, across the river) around 8-10 mph.

A cold front will fast approach, and as it arrives Sunday night, a few flurries may squeeze out late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday –  Cold & Raw; sNOw Flurries  Morning Low 27 / Afternoon High 35

6a 28 . 9a 30 . 12p 33 . 3p 34 . 6p 30 . 9p 27

The Music City Bowl will be cold. Expect a north wind around 5 mph. Wind chills will be in the upper 20s.

The GFS and Euro models deliver absolutely no precip or snow after sunrise Monday morning.

The Hi-Res NAM model still thinks we will see light rain/snow Monday afternoon (see below) This model is very uncertain and variable, and it’s not a forecast. We think this model is an outlier and is wrong. The no-snow GFS and Euro models are the more reliable solution.

Extended Official NWS forecast:

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Saturday Night Rain; No-Panic Rain/Snow Sunday Night

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight – Mostly Clear & Chilly –  Midnight Temp 37

Saturday  – Increasing Clouds; Rainy Evening   –  Morning Low 30 / Afternoon High 55

6a 31 . 9a 39 . 12p 50 . 3p 54 . 6p 50 . 9p 46

It’s going to rain Saturday night into the overnight hours.

The Hi-Res NAM model provides a good illustration, Saturday 6 pm – Sunday 6 am:

Sunday –  Rain Early; Cloudy; Colder; Flurries Late?  Morning Low 40 / Afternoon High 53

6a 41 . 9a 45 . 12p 50 . 3p 52 . 6p 44 . 9p 38

The rain from overnight Saturday will still be here in the morning, but on its way out. We are expecting all the rain to move out by mid-morning, if not sooner.

We think the Titans game will be rain-free.

After the rain leaves, a cold front will arrive from the west, causing temps to fall once again Sunday night.

There is a chance (just a chance, @PanicCatfish) of a few snowflakes/sprinkles that could arrive with the cold front. The Hi-Res NAM weather model below illustrates all of this for us. (Sunday 6 am – Monday 12 am (blue line indicates freezing)):

The GFS and ECMWF models are equally unimpressed with the snow/flurry chances Sunday night and Monday morning. GFS:

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-27 at 4.48.41 PM

Things are going to be very cold to ring in the New Year. The Music City Bowl looks cloudy, dry, with temps in the mid-30s. Winds are — thankfully — forecast to be light.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Clear Until Saturday Night

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight – Clear & Cold –  Midnight Temp 32

Friday  – Warmer & Sunny  –  Morning Low 26 / Afternoon High 51

6a 27 . 9a 35 . 12p 46 . 3p 50 . 6p 43 . 9p 39

Some high clouds begin to move in late overnight.

Saturday –  Warmer, Cloudier, Rain Possible Late  Morning Low 31 / Afternoon High 54

6a 32 . 9a 39 . 12p 49 . 3p 52 . 6p 48 . 9p 45

Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico may spread rain on us late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Won’t be a lot of rain.

Hi-Res NAM Weather Model overnight Saturday / early Sunday below. This not a forecast and may not be accurate:

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-26 at 4.25.19 PM

Don’t worry about the snow chance Sunday night. All indications are that it won’t be a big deal, but, of course, it’s too far away to say for sure what will happen.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Clear, Calm, & Warmer Next Few Days

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight – Mostly Clear & Cold –  Midnight Temp 32

Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

Another chilly night to spend by the fireplace.

Thursday  – Sunny  –  Morning Low 27 / Afternoon High 44

6a 29 . 9a 34 . 12p 41 . 3p 43 . 6p 36 . 9p 32

Friday – Clear & Warmer  Morning Low 24 / Afternoon High 52

6a 25 . 9a 34 . 12p 46 . 3p 50 . 6p 43 . 9p 38

Warming up a bit more. Not much going on.

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-25 at 4.17.04 PM

Sunday night there’s a very slight chance of rain or snow, but for now it looks to be of little/no consequence.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Twas The “C-O-L-D” Before Christmas

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight – Clear & Cold –  Midnight Temp 21

A frosty evening. Good night to sit beside the fireplace with the ones you love and a warm drink. Wind chills in the teens.

(Editor’s Note: If you have to assemble something, I’m sorry).

00-fireplace-safety

Christmas  – Sunny & Warmer –  Morning Low 19 / Afternoon High 44

6a 19 . 9a 27 . 12p 38 . 3p 43 . 6p 37 . 9p 33

Very cold Christmas morning! However, we will be warming gradually through the day.

frosty_christmas_morning

 

Thursday – Sunny & Warmer  Morning Low 19 / Afternoon High 44

6a 26 . 9a 32 . 12p 41 . 3p 44 . 6p 37 . 9p 34

The temps get even closer to average thanks to southerly winds.

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-24 at 4.28.15 PM

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

It’s “Blame Canada” Cold Outside

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight – Decreasing Clouds & Colder –  Midnight Low 27

Wind chills tonight start in the upper 20s, then drop into the teens.

Christmas Eve – Sunny & Freezing –  Morning Low 22 / Afternoon High 32

6a 23 . 9a 25 . 12p 28 . 3p 29 . 6p 25 . 9p 23

Morning wind chills: Midnight 18 . 3a 14 . 6a 12 . 9a 14 . Noon 20

Let’s say it all together now! 

south park blame Canada

If you are really in the mood to “Blame Canada” there is a song:

(Editor’s Note: The Intern’s South Park song did not make it past the censors. The below image passed, but just barely).

Christmas – Sunny & Warmer  Morning Low 19 / Afternoon High 44

6a 19 . 9a 26 . 12p 37 . 3p 41 . 6p 36 . 9p 33

These temps are closer to the seasonal norms.

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-23 at 4.30.22 PM

We don’t expect any precip until Sunday night/Monday, and even that’s iffy.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

One Last Day Of Warmth; Old Man Winter Arrives Tonight

Monday – Partly Cloudy; Colder –  Morning Low 35 / Afternoon High 41

6a 36 . 9a 37 . 12p 40 . 3p 40 . 6p 33 . 9p 29

If you were worried about it not feeling like Christmas outside, don’t worry, it will. There will be a nice north wind bringing us all this cold air and slowly clearing away the clouds.

Tuesday – Sunny & Freezing  Morning Low 21 / Afternoon High 31

6a 22 . 9a 25 . 12p 29 . 3p 30 . 6p 26 . 9p 24

Old Man Winter is back and he means business! Wind chill of 11 degrees at 6 am.

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-22 at 8.58.39 AM

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Severe Threat Over; Mild Sunday; Cold Monday

Rest of Tonight – Showers/Thunderstorms Ending – Overnight Low 58

The severe threat is over. The Tornado Watch has been canceled, but it’s still a bit windy and wet out there.

HRRR model moves the rain out early Sunday morning:

Sunday – Cloudy & Slight Chance of Showers –  Morning Low 58 / Afternoon High 60

6a 59 . 9a 59 . 12p 60 . 3p 59 . 6p 51 . 9p 46

The cold front will finally push through in the late afternoon/early evening.

Monday – Partly Sunny  Morning Low 36 / Afternoon High 41

6a 37 . 9a 38 . 12p 40 . 3p 40 . 6p 34 . 9p 30

Winter is back in full force with below average temperatures and winds out of the north 10 -15 mph. Stay warm!

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-21 at 11.41.30 PM

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Damaging Winds, Tornadoes Possible Tonight

We’re concerned about severe weather later this afternoon and tonight. Ironically, today is the first day of winter.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has now put us under a Moderate Risk of severe weather due to our damaging wind chances:

Storm Prediction Center Dec 21, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook 2013-12-21 08-47-30

The label “Moderate Risk” is more wx-nerd speak than anything else. Generally speaking, “moderate” isn’t a big deal; however, on the SPC scale, it is a big deal. The SPC uses 5 storm categories: no thunderstorms, general thunderstorms, Slight Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk. The Moderate Risk is a 4 out of 5, and requires your attention today.

Here’s what Moderate Risk means for us:

Tornadoes. There is a 10% probability of a tornado happening within 25 miles of you. In addition, there’s a 10% or higher chance of a tornado being strong — EF2 or greater — indicated by the black hatched area:

Damaging Winds. Our greatest severe weather threat today is damaging winds. There is a 45% chance of damaging winds happening within 25 miles of you, and a 10% or higher chance of 75+ mph winds (as indicated by the black hatched area). 74+ mph wind gusts, if sustained, would qualify as Category 1 hurricane strength. Go ahead and secure all your outdoor stuff.

Storm Prediction Center Dec 21, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook 2013-12-21 08-55-19

Hail is not expected.

Screen Shot 2013-12-21 at 9.01.29 AM

Today, cheer for the sun to stay behind the clouds. A few hours of sunlight will help charge the atmosphere for severe weather tonight.

Timing:  We are not expecting any thunderstorms until late this afternoon, early evening.

Hi-Res NAM model Saturday 10 am – 7 pm keeps us mostly rain free:

Hi-Res NAM model Saturday 8 pm – Sunday 5 am is when all the action will be:

The timing of these models may change. Do not rely on them. The storms could arrive before, or after, what is shown above.

Make sure you have a plan in place today in case a Tornado Warning is issued for your area

Remember, a Watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather. You should very closely monitor multiple reliable weather sources.

A Warning means severe weather is occurring or imminent. You should immediately react by moving into a safe location. Move to the lowest level of your home, and put as many walls between you and the outside as you can. Mobile homes and cars are not safe locations. Wear shoes. I put helmets on my kids (I don’t care how goofy that is).

Since 1950, there have been 13 December tornadoes in Middle TN. The last fatality was on Christmas Eve, 1998, in Franklin.

Before the storms arrive, the winds will still be strong. Winds will get stronger as we head through out the day. Gusts as high as 50+ mph are possible!

Charge your phones in case power goes out.

image_full7

Do not rely solely on this website for severe weather information. Updated information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx. Monitor TV and radio as well.

A Few Twitter Reminders

1.  Safely report all wind damage, funnel clouds, wall clouds, etc., to the NWS by tweeting your report with the hashtag #tSpotter. During severe weather, I can’t thank you individually for your report – so I’m thanking you now. Each report is a community service.

2.  Please send us all your questions. Your questions help us know what information gaps we need to fill in. Even if we can’t individually reply (especially when we get very busy), we try to respond publicly. Many times, your question is answered if you scroll backwards in your time line.

3.  If we are put in Twitter jail, we’ll post all updates to this web site.

4.  We can only cover Davidson & Williamson Counties. We don’t have the time or resources to expand the scope of coverage without degrading the information we provide.

The NWS has scheduled a special conference call for 1 PM today. We’ll update this blog after then.

Warm, Wet, Weekend Storms (Strong/Severe)

Latest Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight – Cool & Cloudy – Overnight Low 47

We’ll be 15 degrees warmer than normal tonight. Clouds are gathering ahead of the big rain/storm system moving in tomorrow and over the weekend.

Friday – Rain –  Morning Low 47 / Afternoon High 65

6a 49 . 9a 54 . 12p 62 . 3p 64 . 6p 63 . 9p 61

I’m jealous of all of you in Nashville. I’m freezing here in Canada.

(Editor’s Note: let’s all laugh at The Intern).

We could see a few light showers early in the day, but most of the rain will arrive overnight and through the rest of the weekend.

Hi-Res NAM model Friday 4 am – 1 pm:

Saturday – Rain, Thunderstorms Late (Some Strong, Possibly Severe)  Morning Low 58 / Afternoon High 73

6a 59 . 9a 64 . 12p 70 . 3p 72 . 6p 69 . 9p 67

Very warm and windy day. It’ll feel like storms are coming. And they will be.

Winds could gust as high as 30+ mph.

SPC (Storm Prediction Center) does NOT include Nashville in its “Slight” risk outlook for Saturday.

Screen Shot 2013-12-19 at 4.36.01 PM

However, there’s still a 5% chance of severe weather happening within 25 miles of you, most likely early Sunday morning. Main threat will be damaging winds.

Screen Shot 2013-12-19 at 4.36.24 PM

Hi-Res NAM model Friday 11 pm – Sunday 12 am :

Our NWS thinks 3+ inches of rain is not out of the question.

WPC (Weather Prediction Center) has us right under 3 inches of rain through Sunday at noon:

hpc_total_precip_tx_13

Official NWS forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-19 at 4.00.31 PM

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.