Although it is a dry weekend, it sure is a hot one.
Today and Saturday will be hot, but the heat index won’t differ too much from the actual air temperature.
Sunday and Monday will be the hottest. Dewpoints will creep up, allowing for the heat index to surpass 100°. If you have to be outside either of those days, take it easy. Take frequent breaks in the shade and/or A/C.
Monday seems to be our only day with rain chances in the forecast, but those chances are low.
"Monday will be Middle TN`s best shot
at getting some rain in this forecast package. Unfortunately, it`s
still not a great shot. Will maintain a 20-30% chance, however, if
you get a storm on Monday afternoon, expect brief heavy rainfall,
lots of lightning and even the potential for some gusty winds." - NWS Nashville AFD
90s as far as the eye can see…
The humidity could be nicer, but it could also be worse. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will make ya sweat faster.
Peak heat will be Sunday (sorry dads), with high temperatures flirting with the 100° mark, but models think we fall just short. Regardless, heat index values may exceed 100°. Only a little better for days not named Sunday, heat index values in the upper 90s still possible.
So far today rain has been kind to us – mostly missing us. Models continue to think this trend will continue throughout the day, with only the occasional shower and low thunderstorm chances.
The HRRR model, shown above, thinks we’ll get away with a dry afternoon and only a few light showers along a cold front that will push thru around sunset, bringing relief from the humidity for the next couple of days. Still not a bad idea to bring rain gear to the CMA Fest, just not sure how much you’ll need it.
We are left with a nearly rain-free week ahead.
"Through this week, a stray pop-up shower or storm cannot be ruled
out, particularly late week when humidity creeps up. But for the
most part, models show the dry air and strong ridge suppressing
any significant rain chances." - NWS Nashville AFD
Showers, and some storms are already moving thru the area and will continue to do so throughout the day, as illustrated below by the imperfect HRRR model.
There is a decent amount of CAPE (storm fuel) out there, but very little to no wind energy. These storms may become strong briefly, with some gusty winds and small hail, but will not be able to hold on for very long. Flash flooding potential today is low – but not zero. Slow moving storms will have the potential to drop a lot of rain in not a lot of time.
It’s that time of the year to start playing the Wattery. All will enter, few will win.
HRRR model suggests storms with lightning start popping up around 4 or 5 pm today, with activity slowing down after sunset. Not everyone will see rain, but those that do may have to temporarily relocate indoors and wait for the lightning to pass.
