Current Radar
I hope you are at a place where Easter is really happy, and not some weird holiday that doesn’t quite make total sense or seem relevant to you.
Temps are expected to soar to 76° despite the clouds. A steady, warm, south breeze is ongoing, and will continue until a cold front sweeps it away tonight.
Current Radar
There are two models on opposite ends of the spectrum.
Our NWS believes this is too wet, and we agree.
Our NWS believes this is a little too dry.
Considering both models, our NWS is going with 20% to 30% chance of rain in the morning. That’s to account for the possibility the NAM4 is correct.
Current Radar
There is a lot going on.
There’s a Frost Advisory through 9 AM tomorrow.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Tuesday afternoon.
And there is a Hazardous Weather Outlook for rain/storms Wednesday night into Thursday.
Current Radar
Upper level low pressure is pushing rain into Middle Tennessee. Check out the current radar above, or below:
This rain will probably mix with sleet/flakes. The upper low is bringing its own supercold temps, and making the ice. No worries, though, it’s way too warm at the surface to cause travel problems.
Current Radar
As I write this, scattered rain showers stretch from Bowling Green to McMinnville. These specific showers aren’t moving our way and I don’t think they will impact us.
But, if you look further north, you see the larger picture – an upper level low pressure system – dropping a rain/snow mix across southern Indiana, southern Illinois, and SE Missouri. Check out the current radar above, or below:
Current Radar
Severe and tornadic thunderstorms are now ongoing in Arkansas and approaching Memphis. Those storms are expected to weaken by the time they cross the Tennessee River, reduced only to a few weak thunderstorms and rain by time they reach here early Monday morning. The HRRR model illustrates this weakening.
Current Radar
Check out the radar, above. Rain is piling up and raising flooding concerns in Louisiana, Arkansas, and West Tennessee.
When’s in coming to Middle Tennessee? Well, THAT much rain isn’t. But it’s going to rain here, and it’s going to be warm.
Sunday’s light south wind becomes a strong south wind Monday. Therefore, higher temps!
The NAM4 model wants to sneak in a few light showers from the west during various parts of the day; however, both the big global models (GFS, Euro) think the rain-suppressing ridge sitting off our east is strong enough to fight them off. Rain isn’t in the official forecast, but we should at least account for the NAM4’s intermittent, very light, no-rainout, showers.
Current Radar
As I write this, a cold front is taking shape in the midwest. Meanwhile, shortwave energy can be seen over the northern Rocky Mountains. Both are moving southeast, and will be here tomorrow.
Current Radar
A Little Rain Late Tonight
Around or after midnight, a little trough will try and shove in some light rain. The atmosphere is really dry near the surface, and this rainer looks pretty weak, so we aren’t expecting it to alter any outdoor activities Monday.