I hope you are at a place where Easter is really happy, and not some weird holiday that doesn’t quite make total sense or seem relevant to you.
Temps are expected to soar to 76° despite the clouds. A steady, warm, south breeze is ongoing, and will continue until a cold front sweeps it away tonight.
Dry Morning — Few Afternoon Showers — Rain Tonight
Current radar trends are verifying last night’s preferred model runs. I think we will stay dry this morning.
And most — not all — of the day, too.
Watch what the HRRR Model predicts through 10 PM:
Rain chances are coming from two directions.
(1) During the Day — From the South. Notice those isolated, tiny, light showers moving north, being pushed in by a warm south breeze. You may see one or two of those this afternoon, but they should be of little consequence.
The best chance for severe weather is to our northwest, here:
As you can tell, we are a “1” on a scale of 0 to 5.
If strong storms have any chance of forming, it’ll be in the mid/late afternoon hours, when instability/CAPE is greatest. The forcing mechanism for storm creation will be to the NW, so we don’t think we will see much of anything. The ingredients aren’t coming together at the right time.
(2) Tonight — From the West. Notice in the HRRR model (above) the heavier rain tonight comes in from the west, then weakens as it approaches I-65. That’s the cold front. As the front nears, shear values will be increasing, but CAPE/instability will decreasing. We might get a strong storm or two out of this, but severe weather chances tonight — while not zero — are low. I’ve been running through forecast model soundings, and I see some stormy potential in these. As usual, we will be watching this unfold all day.
Monday & Tuesday
Wednesday – Friday: Wet, Stormy
Rain is expected sometime Wednesday. The GFS and Euro models are about 12 hours apart on the ETA, but both agree on a heavy rainfall event. Strong/Severe weather is difficult to determine considering the variance in models for Thursday. Through Friday, we may have seen as much as 2″ of rain, terrible news for outdoorsy stuff. Rain should end in time for Saturday, but the ground looks to be pretty wet.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs