Wet Second Half of the Week Ahead

Current Radar

Monday – More Clouds, Probably Not a Sprinkle or Two – Early 48° High 70°

Sunday’s light south wind becomes a strong south wind Monday. Therefore, higher temps!

The NAM4 model wants to sneak in a few light showers from the west during various parts of the day; however, both the big global models (GFS, Euro) think the rain-suppressing ridge sitting off our east is strong enough to fight them off. Rain isn’t in the official forecast, but we should at least account for the NAM4’s intermittent, very light, no-rainout, showers.

Tuesday – Just Like Monday, But Warmer – Early 51° High 75°

Wet Rest of the Week

The talk in the weather community is the frontal boundary and associated inverted trough that’ll be setting up from Louisiana, north to Arkansas, and into Missouri. It will get going late Tuesday night. By Wednesday, it should be hammering them with a LOT of rain.

I’d be pretty concerned about flooding if I lived out that way.

As for us, that system will slowly move east into Middle Tennessee, probably on Thursday. No model gives us nearly as much rain as LA, AR, or MO, but because it’ll move very slowly it has potential to drop a good bit of rain. It’ll be a wet end to the work-week and linger into the weekend. A total of 1″ to 2″ is possible, with most of it falling Thu-Sat.

This is the WPC rainfall graphic. Note the 5″+ of rain expected in Memphis. I imagine that rainfall gradient may move closer to, or further away from, us during the week.

We aren’t expecting severe weather. Just rain.

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