Drizzly, Foggy Evening
Today’s mist and light drizzle only registered a “trace” amount of rain in the official rain can at BNA. The fog and drizzle will continue tonight.
Monday Afternoon/Evening Rain & Thunderstorms: Severe Weather Kinda Possible
Temps and winds will increase through the day as we wait for the rain and thunderstorms.
ETA
The HRRR model says the morning looks pretty quiet:
We think rain will start mid afternoon.
Any storms would arrive after dark.
More storms would then be possible closer to midnight:
How Bad Will They Be?
The rain will not be continuous during the day. Expect a heavier, more continuous rain in the evening and overnight. Flooding is not a concern right now.
So, what are we talking about? A low threat of damaging winds and a tornado.
The above graphic applies generally to all of Middle Tennessee, not specifically to Davidson and Williamson Counties. Of course, it’s not a “low” threat if it happens to you.
The severe weather threat is higher the further south you go.
I’ve been through the guts of the data — the forecast soundings for you weather nerds — and I’m not impressed by the potential of this system.
This is a very-low-end concern right now. Expect this forecast to change, so keep an eye on the forecast today and especially tomorrow.
Arctic Air Arrives Wednesday; Snow Chance Thursday/Friday? Mehbe.
Tuesday’s high is 63°. Wednesday’s high: 35°. That’s some arctic air.
A reminder of what I wrote this morning:
Over the past several days, the GFS and Euro models have Drunk Uncled their way around this forecast, from 8" of snow on the ground to no precip at all, and everything in between. The models often do this 7, 6, and 5 days before an "event," and they'll continue to behave like this for the next few days. Putting snow on your roof requires dozens and dozens of very complicated things to come together at the exact same time, and the forecast models just aren't that good. They are getting better, but there is certainly room for improvement.
