Rain/Storms Tonight; Update on End of Week Snow Potential

Rain, Maybe A Few Storms, Tonight

Rain Expected To Arrive By Mid-Evening

The Center of the Storm System Is Expected to Pass Right Over Us; The Potential for Strong/Severe Storms Should Remain to Our South

Strong and severe storms are only possible south of the low pressure (the red “L” in the above image) on days like this. Although we cannot rule out a strong or severe storm or two, I’m feeling no anxiety about the storms tonight.

Here’s NWS-Nashville’s latest hazard/probability graphic:

I think the evening is generally a wash out.

Rain should be gone before the Tuesday morning rush hour.

Tuesday: A Little Rain as the Cold Front Arrives

We’ll hit 62° Tuesday afternoon, but this will be our last warm day for a while. A cold front approaches Tuesday night, and with it, some nuisance drizzle.

End Of Week Snow Chances

Late Thursday Into Friday: Maybe a Dusting

This afternoon, NWS-Nashville wrote “There is a slight chance for light snow Thursday and Thursday night as a weak short wave moves across our area with a chance across southern areas on Friday.”

They think our snow chance is best Thursday night into Friday. The GFS model predicts maybe a dusting Thursday night, but that all depends on which of the 4 runs of today’s GFS model you believe. They vary between a dusting and nothing at all. The European model is a bit more consistent with snowfall late Thursday night into Friday, more likely a dusting, but up to 2″. Again, the European model is not consistent from run to run, moving from a light dusting to up to 2″. The Canadian model is the average of the two — at most a dusting, but at least flakes are flying.

When talking snow in Middle Tennessee when the models vary this much, draw no conclusions.

Pump the Brakes if you Hear About a Major Snowstorm This Weekend

Prior runs of the GFS model predicted maybe a little snow this Saturday, but probably not. Then the 12z run came out this afternoon and predicted snowmageddon.

Here it is:

This 12z run of the GFS is likely a outlier and should be discarded. Even the updated GFS run (18z) cut the snowfall prediction for us from 6.1″ to 1.9″.

Note that the European model, which is more highly regarded than the GFS, has n-o-t-h-i-n-g this weekend. No precip, no rain, no snow. Nothing. Here’s what it looks like for the exact same time as the nutty 12z run of the GFS.

NWS-Nashville’s afternoon forecast discussion put it this way: “Major differences between GFS and Euro in [the] extended [forecast] with 12z GFS developing major winter storm for Tennessee this coming weekend while Euro is storm free. Since this is a new development in the GFS will go along with Euro and keep the weekend dry but cold.”

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