Snowmelt Timing & Wet Week Ahead.

Ice remains. It was 5° at BNA overnight. Many local areas colder than that.

Temps above freezing – barely, briefly – this afternoon. Sunlight and light winds will erode but not eliminate ice sheets. Back down to 20° overnight and Monday morning.

Ice should linger through the Monday AM commute.


Freezing temps should end between 9-10 AM Monday, rising to 46° Monday afternoon. Commence the snowmelt! Shady areas may hold ice longer, perhaps through the PM commute. Remember fam, ice will melt at varying rates.

Lows Tuesday morning are tricky. BNA’s low is 37°. Other local areas may be colder than that, but I don’t think it’ll do much to refreeze washed away ice and snow.

Rain approaching Tuesday morning should wash away any surviving, hardpacked ice.

47° late morning Tuesday, afternoon high 54°, with rainfall melting and shoving ice away. Beginning Tuesday, we will not get below freezing for at least the next week.

Expect temps and rain to clear ice Tuesday.


Rain heaviest Tuesday through Thursday. Forecast rain totals increased from 2″ to 3″ to 3″ to 5″.

This may rise rivers and streams.

[S]nowmelt plus cold and soggy grounds with several inches of rain falling on top of that is a recipe for flooding and rises on our area rivers and lakes. A Flood Watch may be necessary for parts or all of the [area] in a couple days if these model trends continue.

NWS-Nashville, AM Forecast Disco, 1/21/24

A Flood Watch is possible mid/late this week.


Severe weather potential Thursday remains a topic, but news is good.

[G]uidance has been suggesting that 60+ dewpoints may make it northward into parts of our [area] in the Wednesday or Thursday timeframe, and given the ample shear depicted a low end severe threat could result – although this is highly uncertain at this range.

NWS-Nashville, AM Forecast Disco, 1/21/24

SPC says “predictability too low” to outlook us for severe potential.

Models disagree as usual. Yesterday, the Euro model advertised severe-storm-capable instability with 60° dewpoints. Today it has dewpoints in the upper 50°s with only a narrow band of much weaker instability. The GFS model has none of this.

Thunderstorms maybe, but the data shows no basis for severe storm alarm.

Concern about a severe storm event Thursday is decreasing.


Day 6-10, Day 8-14, and Weeks 3-4 outlooks suggest above-average temps. This does not rule out another winter event, but it suggests that if we get one, arctic air is unlikely to race in behind it and lock in ice and snow for a week.

A repeat of this weeklong snow is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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About Melting, Rain, & Severe Weather Potential

Most main and secondary roads are OK, but could contain “invisible” black ice in “hard freeze” (T<26°) temps today and Sunday morning. Neighborhood roads, sidewalks and decks remain icy, esp on hills and in shady areas.

Icy roads should mostly remain this weekend through Monday morning.

  • High today 20°, tomorrow 32°.
  • Winds, traffic, and sunlight will help erode – but won’t eliminate – icy snowpack. We need temps well above freezing to get rid of the ice.
  • Some areas may slide above freezing briefly Sunday afternoon. The 1100+ sq mi of Davidson and Williamson Counties experience wide temp variance. Usually the variance is a distinction without difference, except in these situations where a few degrees +/- 32° is everything. The relative safety of your route will vary from mine.
  • A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect today through tomorrow morning. Wind Chills will hit the negative numbers esp overnight and Sunday morning.
  • Widespread melting ETA Monday afternoon. The eroding icepack should remain on neighborhood roads and concrete sidewalks for the Monday AM commute. Temps rise above freezing late Monday morning on our way to a high of 46° Monday afternoon. Ice will change to water, roads will be wet as water runs off or evaporates.
  • Temps should bottom out Tuesday morning around 35° at BNA. Some areas around town may briefly dip to or below freezing. I expect few/no problems Tuesday morning but I’d like to wait and see what happens Monday before making a confident declaration.
  • Tuesday will rinse away any remaining snow and ice as rain moves in and temps rise to 51°.

Warm and Raining Next Week

Tuesday – Thursday looks wet. Euro model below estimates ongoing total rainfall from Tuesday morning to Friday morning:

NWS-Nashville forecasts 2″ to 3″ of rain during this time. It won’t rain the entire time. We will need the higher resolution models to get in range for rough ETAs, etc.

Strong/Severe Storms With That Rain?

Probably not.

My only mild concern is Thursday afternoon.

  • The 0z Euro model run drops in 500+ SBCAPE with 64° dewpoints, 200 SRH 0-1km, and low LCLs, but modest lapse rates. Those are many (not all!) ingredients for severe weather. Not ready to speculate on severe type (wind, hail, tornado).
  • The GFS model has none of the bad stuff – it keeps severe ingredients south of TN/AL border.
  • SPC has not outlooked us for severe weather, thinking instability will be confined to the Gulf states.

More on this tomorrow.

Week long snowpack to severe potential is not cool.

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Hypothermia Danger: Wind Chill Advisory.

Wind Chill Advisory. Tonight 10 PM thru Weds 11 AM.

  • Wind Chills “as low as minus fifteen” (-15°) expected.” -NWSNashville.
  • Winds could “result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.” -NWSNashville.
  • Any traveling vehicles need full weather clothes, flashlight, food, water should you slide off icy roads. If you crash you’ll need supplies.
  • Tues morning temperature low: 7°. Weds morning low 2°. TWO. Wind chills will be much colder of course.

Snow Totals Vary 5.5″ to 9.5″. Snow fell unevenly. Elevation and location skew results. I’ve seen 5.5″ to 9.5″ in our replies. An average winter in the last 30 years delivered 4.7″. Snowfall is ending now and should be gone after dark. Send measured snow taken from hard surface (not grass) by tagging it with #tSpotter on Twitter.

Check Road Conditions. Use TDOT Smartway to get a look at the interstate system. Secondary roads are a mess. Do not attempt necessary. We all know YOU know how to drive perfectly in this, but the problem is OTHER DRIVERS who cause wrecks. This further stresses police and fire first responder capacity. Do not be victimized by other driver negligence/ignorance.

Melt?

  • “With the long duration of below freezing temperatures, snow will be very slow to melt. Sunshine on Wednesday will help melt snow.” -NWSNashville.
  • Above freezing temps expected late Thursday morning — but that will only be for a few hours – then another system swings in.
  • Reinforcing sub-freezing air will lock in a frozen Fri-Sat.
  • This snow will be around a while. Especially shady areas.

Snow Event Thursday Night? Maybe, under 1″ current forecast.

  • Looks like a rain/snow mix transitioning to snow after dark Thu.
  • Seven different models snapshotting 6 PM on Thursday are below. Notice the lack of rain vs snow consensus.

Precip type will not be as easy with this one as our current system. Profiles around 850 mb will start to warm to near or just above freezing, we will also see surface temperatures warm above freezing during the afternoon Thursday. This will bring some rain mixing with snow. This mix will continue into the evening as surface temperatures fall below freezing again. Right now is doesn’t look like we will see any ice accumulation but we could see some light snow accumulation. Totals look to remain very light, under an inch.

NWS-Nashville, Afternoon Discussion, 1/15/24

Reduce Sled Injury Risks. Avoid sledding near fences, too close to other sledders, trees. Head injuries are devastating. Have heard some scary/sad stories already with this event. Helmets are good ideas. Be safe out there.

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Approaching Snow Event Looks Meh - But . . . It May Not Be

The snow target time is Friday morning.

The below NWS Nashville graf has good information for Middle Tennessee:

Takeaways for us in Davidson and Williamson Counties:

  1. Dusting most likely result – snow in grass, mailboxes, decks – not gathering on most roads.
  2. Some bridges and overpasses may be briefly slick IF all goes “right” for the snow event.
  3. Snowshowers should be unevenly distributed, missing some, falling on others.
  4. Or it could just be a very cold rain.

More deets from NWS Nashville:

This will be a snow/rain event, no sleet or freezing rain. Temperatures Friday morning will be in the low to mid 30s and will warm into the mid 30s to around 40 degrees by the afternoon. This will reduce the amount of snow showers and increase the coverage of rain showers.

NWS Nashville AM Forecast Discussion 12/27/23

Above freezing temps Friday will melt snow. Snow showers may end up as unfrozen water as flakes splat:melt.

HRRR model is not yet in range. It runs through 6 AM Friday. It shows snow still in KY by 6 AM Friday, which would put it into our area late morning Friday when surface temps are expected to warm above freezing, melting flakes:

Remember, it can snow (air below freezing) but then melt because the above-freezing ground cools slower than the air.

National Blend of Models: no meaningful local accumulation:

The Plateau — to our east — holds some snow because it’s at higher elevation.

The only thing that concerns me about this forecast is that we’ll have a very cold upper level low parked right on top of us as this snow comes through. Sometimes forecasts underestimate the amount of snow, and we end up getting more than the forecast.

As NWS Nashville says:

It is not uncommon for this type of setup to overachieve.

Stay connected for updates!

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Rain Ending - Colder with More Rain Chances Later This Week

Morning rain will end during lunch. A few hit/miss showers may drive by your place this afternoon, otherwise cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine for some. HRRR model through 7 PM today below:

Colder air later this week, wind chills near freezing Weds morning with colder mornings after that.

Next rain event is questionable. Most models think the most likely time is Thursday night. No one is sure about that. Looks right now like a light, cold rain with wintry precip missing us to the north and east.

Another rain event is modeled for New Year’s Day. Best data right now thinks it’s a cold rain without wintry precip. Model data 1 week away is unreliable making it too soon to discuss wintry precip beyond what we’ve already said about it.

Thanks to all you doctors, nurses, police, firefolks, meteorologists and other Essential People working today. You are the real ones.

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Needed Rain Coming This Weekend

National Blend of Models predicts 2″ of rain this weekend.

BEST GUESS TIMING. Most likely start time between 6 PM to midnight Saturday night. Ending around lunch Sunday. It’s possible rain could arrive as early as noon Saturday and end earlier Sunday morning -or- start later Saturday night and linger into Sunday afternoon.

FLOODING? Unlikely. Some ponding and usual heavy rain stuff Saturday night – overnight – Sunday morning. 2″ is unlikely to cause significant problems except maybe briefly in your normal low/floody spots.

STORMS? Probably not. SPC has the severe risk to our west on Friday …

… with a higher severe probability to our west and southwest Saturday …

… but locally the predictability is too low. This looks like a line of heavy rain and strong straight line winds. Data is too confused/jumbled to draw conclusions.

Some severe weather ingredients will be in place, but other essential ingredients appear to be missing. Example: max dewpoint is 49, too low for severe! Good news! But we’ll have to update this forecast again tomorrow hoping this trend against local severe weather continues. It may not.

SNOW: You may hear local mets discuss snow – they cover the plateau, too, so they have to mention it – there’s no compelling evidence for this system to bring us snow as the system departs Sunday.

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Rain, Cold Mornings, Weekend Rain Event (storm/snow comments)

Rain showers later today/tonight.

  • 1. Brief, chilly, and unevenly rainfall caused by – impress coworkers at holiday parties with a well timed – this “is common for these clipper systems.”
  • 2. Rainout/Washout unlikely.
  • 3. You may hear talk of “snow” — that’s for non-accumulating snow potential on the plateau.
  • 4. GEO ICYMI: The plateau is east of us – think between Cookeville and Crossville – they’re at higher elevation – easier for them to snow than us.

Near/Freezing Morning Temps & Thursday’s Marginal Fire Danger

  • 1. Ice may form where fog develops on bridges and overpasses Weds & Thurs mornings.
  • 2. A marginal fire danger Thursday afternoon will discourage outdoor burning – dry airmass with low relative humidity + winds in the low teens = may cause fire containment problems.

Big Rainmaker Coming This Weekend

  • 1. TIMING: best guess right now arriving Saturday night and departing around lunch Sunday – timing will probably change.
  • 2. RAIN: on average 1″ to 1.5″ – this too may change either way – models diverge in key areas – this reduces forecast confidence.
  • 3. STORMS: again our confidence is shaky here due to model disagreement – the path of the storm favors thunderstorms – but other essential ingredients (instability, lapse rates) are very weak in the models – SPC excluded us from severe weather risk – no risk will be introduced unless and until models develop agreement – more to follow later with new data.
  • 4. SNOW: not for us – our ground will be way too warm – unreceptive to ice – models at this range routinely advertise snow that never happens – even the Euro (above) pulls the colder air columns way too far north of us.

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Weekend Rain, Storms (?), and Just in Case Someone Says Sn*w This Weekend…

A Great Lakes snowstorm may spin a little rain into Middle Tennessee Tuesday – no biggie here – HRRR model below:

Mild days, cold mid week mornings – near freezing – ahead:

A big system will plow through this weekend. Here it is:

  1. Severe threat Saturday will be in the Tex-Ark-La-Miss area.
  2. Rain is likely here late Saturday through Sunday, with a conditional severe threat. Meaning, a few conditions will have to be met to develop severe thunderstorms for us late Saturday into Sunday. Timing may change. Data not super reliable.
  3. “Although [storm-powering] instability is forecast to be relatively weak on Sunday due to a cooler and drier airmass over parts of the Southeast, isolated severe storms could occur if a line of strong storms can become organized.” Storm Prediction Center (SPC), 12/4/23.
  4. “Predictability too low” for severe weather for Sunday, says SPC.
  5. Rain is likely. WPC rainfall estimates for the weekend range from 1″ to 1.5″, with pockets of 2″ around Middle Tennessee.
  6. Euro model above shows blues and pinks indicating frozen precip after the cold front passes. This is a common false flag for accumulating snow:
    • Models struggle with precip type at this range.
    • Usually it’s just rain – as the subfreezing air approaches, dry air overcomes the back edge of the departing system, eliminating the precip – or – the precip pulls away before subfreezing air can catch up. Early December Ohio Valley lows rarely if ever cause us wintry precip problems.
    • The ground will be too warm to hold falling snow or ice.
    • Nothing to see, so far, in the data.

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3 Things: Monday, Tuesday, & Ladies and Gentlemen The Weekend

Skies clearing today. Looks pretty good.

  1. Monday morning. HRRR has a weak rain band tomorrow (Monday) morning. Inconsequential.

2. Tuesday morning. Cold brief rain if the HRRR is right (model cuts off before arrival):


3. Weekend rain. Timing and “accuracy” iffy at this range. A soaker is best bet. Not sure if Saturday or Sunday or both. May involve thunderstorms but no current severe concerns. Notice those pinks and blues as the system moves away – common false flag for wintry precip. More about this system tomorrow.


I redboxed midweek cold mornings – spilled paint on the max wind gust Thursday – drop cloth got the rest of it.


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Rain, Light, Off & On - This Afternoon Into Tonight.

Plan for off and on light showers this afternoon into tonight.

Reasoning. This was the radar as of 2:02 PM:

Rain between Savannah – Hohenwald – Lawrenceburg will get to us later today and tonight according to the HRRR model:

No lightning or other hazards. Rain only.


Earlier models had Sunday rain but now not so much. Still looks dreary and maybe drizzly for the Titans game.


A NBD (no big deal) disturbance expected before/around sunrise Monday, otherwise we resume another dry stretch ending Friday/Saturday next week.


Above/Near freezing mornings mid week. Think many of us will be a few degrees colder than this. Otherwise, mild early Dec.


All this > various alternatives.

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