New Winter Weather Advisory does NOT include Nashville or Will Co. Advisory in blue counties below.

Deets: For those in the WWA

There is a lot of uncertainty about snow amounts. If cold air moves in quickly, snow totals could increase above 2 inches for some spots north of I-40. But, since temperatures have been warm, much of the falling snow may melt resulting in little or no accumulation. Either way, any travel impacts are expected to be limited to elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.

Winter Weather Advisory Text from NWS-Nashville.

This situation continues to evolve. Stay connected.

TLDR: Downpouring during school dismissal thru PM rush hour. Tonight rain/snow mix, very little accumulation. Deets:

HRRR model has the rain coming through late this afternoon. Severe unlikely with expected southern track of the low pressure center.

HRRR model tonight (below) shows meager snow accumulation mostly in Will Co at higher elevation near Fairview, hills of east Will Co. Right now think flakes splat:melt in Nashville, lower elevations.

Factors limiting snow accum include:

  • warm ground melting flakes
  • rain not changing to snow early enough
  • surface temps not quite to freezing overnight except at elevation (maybe/probably)
  • precip departing after midnight
  • temps warming into the mid/upper 30s during Tues AM commute

This sitch remains volatile. Expect frequent updates today, tonight.

Heavy afternoon rain. Few storms. Severe unlikely. Tonight: fast cool down. Dusting possible < 1”. New HRRR model has less snow vs last night’s model.

Official NWS-Nashville forecast:

Reason for forecast change: models shifted the center of the storm south. This reduced severe concerns. It increased snow potential.

Uncertainty remains high. Forecast will need updates. Updates to come throughout the day and night.

Late night models now love snow Monday night. Dusting? Will have more in the morning. 👍🏽.

Wild Monday. Rainy lunch. Heavy rain/storms 3 PM – 5 PM. Then a lull. Then evening rain to snow. No impacts (splat:melt). Timing via HRRR model 👇🏽.

Squashing Snow Rumors.

Rain misses us south during the Buper Sowl (I don’t think you’re allowed to say it unless you’re an official sponsor which we are /checks notes/ not). HRRR model below.

Monday

Surface low – the 997 red R below – passes overhead. Off/On morning and afternoon rain. No flood concern.

Thunderstorms may result. Strong/Severe unlikely. SPC outlooked severe weather thru AL, GA, SC, and the FL panhandle. Not for us.

Monday Night

Big red L moves into eastern KY. Colder temps arrive.

Monday night precip may be snow.

We expect no impacts.

  • Not enough moisture.
  • Moves too fast.
  • Ground too warm to hold ice/snow.
  • Rain vs Snow remains questionable.
  • Any flakes splat/melt.

Cooler Mornings, Mild Mid Feb

Snow SZN Lives

It’s not over. Euro EPS model doesn’t rule snow out in late Feb.

Some of our biggest snows happen in March.

Middle TN: where severe and snow SZNs overlap.

ATTN Weather Nerds

Free. Family friendly. We’ll be there. Don’t let that stop you.

See this rain radar image in the voice of bugs alarmingly exclaiming concern about incoming RAID bug spray. Gasp RAAAAID!!! / 537 PM

Muddy Saturday

HRRR model keeps rain coming through 2 AM – 3 AM Sunday. Few thunderstorms possible. Mostly rain tho. No severe concerns.

Rain totals 0.65″ north Davidson to around 1.75″ south Williamson. No flash flooding concerns. Will reduce drought.

Lightning down in Will Co, Rainy morning. No severe concerns. 840 AM

Rain, lightning advancing into Nashville. No other concerns / 514 PM