Removed: the 15% probability of severe weather for Wednesday. Rain Tues and thunderstorms Weds, but severe weather now appears less likely.
What changed: recent model runs show a dry airmass Monday thru Weds. When Weds’ troublemaking cold front arrives, storm-fueling moisture and instability will be low. Bad storms need moisture and instability. Without them, meh.
Approaching storm line healthy. Producing frequent lightning. Even rotating at mid levels. Expect here heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, maybe small hail 5-6 PM, give or take an hour or so.
Brace yourself for a drastic temp change. 60°s this afternoon. 30°s before midnight with subfreezing wind chills lasting until late Sunday AM.
New HRRR model run, Friday timing. Estimates only. May change:
Most snow to melt on impact. Little to no accumulation.
Bridges, Overpasses, and Areas at Higher Elevation may be slick late Friday night thru Sat AM. Expecting below freezing temps late Friday night until about 9 AM Sat. Bridges and overpasses are the exception because they cool down way faster than earth.
Very little/no snow expected locally tonight.
Deets: Notice the surface low (the red L below) that’s now just passed to our south. It’s racing to Knoxville then Carolina mtns.
This means:
High elevations may get dusted. 99% of us nah.
