Doubt much’ll happen today.

• Last night’s storm complex weakened into a few scattered, light showers this morning.
• A weak cold front arrives today (it’s in W TN and W KY right now) potentially kicking off more rain/lightning.
• Some models have rain for us today, others do not. HRRR is among those without rain/storms today:

• Our atmosphere remains a little bit juiced, capable of an afternoon rain/storm, but the balance of the model data says storms’ll happen east of us today. I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll all get to do our outdoor things this afternoon and tonight. 🤞🏽.

Quiet Weds, Thurs, and most of Friday while dewpoints drop from Uncomfortable to Comfortable.

Humidity returns to Uncomfortable Friday night through the weekend. Another swampy airmass supportive of random pop up showers and storms. Late afternoons and early evenings the most likely times. Wattery Szn runs through September? read more

This blog has no concerning SPC/WPC outlooks for flash flooding, tornado, hail, or widespread damaging straight line winds. How-Ever! There will probably be rain and lightningstorms?

Only a few storms around regionally this afternoon and early tonight. Models think storms will stay west of us today like they did yesterday (we will see about that). Few clouds will allow mid nineties temps. High humidity will send the heat index to 102°. read more

Hot, probably quiet weekend.

Rain/storm coverage looks to be considerably less today than yesterday which will likely allow temperatures to get a few degrees warmer than yesterday, too. Sunday should be similar, with only isolated to widely scattered rain chances and temperatures running into the low 90s. read more

I took my kid to the orthodontist yesterday and greeted the two lovely reception staffers with a sincere Hello Teeth People! They said we are more than that! Indeed! They shined light through the office while they straightened teeth. Also they had some great teeth hygiene analogies that has got me flossing more. May your Friday encounter these lights, not storms, but you may encounter a storm. read more

Rain and a few nonsevere lightning storms should be around Middle Tennessee today. Most models think so, not all of ’em. None agree on exactly where so let’s all cross our arms and look at the models disapprovingly. Models don’t care tho, they show: read more

First can I please say this was harsh. There are now weather vacancies in Hungary.

All the rain is south of us today. It may flood today in northern Louisiana into west central Mississippi so if you’ve got fam down there heads up. read more

Boring, “normal” week ahead.

Temps normal for late August.

Humidity kinda low for late August, dewpoints in the low 60s.

It probably won’t rain here Weds afternoon and Thursday, but rain then is possible. Rain this week is expected to slide south of us through Mississippi-Alabama-Georgia with some flooding risk down there. Models think there’s a 10% probability some of that rain will sneak north and splash us Weds, with around a 30% to 40% probability Thursday (see below). read more

Remember when we were all SMHing over the 90° days? We were looking at August coming with the dread and Oh Noes? Well…

Just one 90°.

Humidity up to uncomfortable levels is teaming with Other Atmospherey Things You Don’t Care About to create a weekend full of so-so rain/lightning chances. read more

89° is the mid/late August average high.

Great job everybody:

No tornadoes in this forecast but there is rain:

• Today, Gore-geee-usss (for August). After today not so much, but not so bad.
• We may encounter Friday afternoon/evening downpours and lightningstorms scattered around Middle Tennessee. Be lightning safe during HS football games and whatever else it is you’re doing. Most games should be OK but we don’t know which. Here’s the HRRR model (the NAM isn’t quite as stormy):

• Humidity will jump up to Sticky & Uncomfortable beginning Saturday.

• Beginning Saturday through next week, the nerdy sciencey things that make rain will kinda come together to create rain chances without the specificity and timeliness you prefer. I am sorry about that. Midwest low pressure, Canadian upper level low, and about eleventy billion other things, all of it moving at varying rates according to various models, will generally make rain possible here in Tennessee, what a world.
• Rainfall totals look modest, below flash flooding levels.
• No tornado, no hail, no damaging straight line wind events expected. But sure, there may be lightning.
• The most likely time for rain/storms is Sunday night. Confidence level is buns.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast. read more