Our high temperature of 69º will arrive shortly after noon, between 1-3pm, in addition to gusty southwest winds in excess of 25 mph. Very humid air has already engulfed middle Tennessee and will continue to hang around with us until showers and storms move through later on.
A powerful storm system will move across the Tennessee Valley this weekend, bringing much warmer temperatures to Middle Tennessee today and especially by Saturday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also anticipated Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Some storms may be strong to possibly severe. Saturday night, an arctic cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee, bringing much colder air back into the area. As this occurs, rain may changeover to a wintry mix of freezing rain or sleet late Saturday night into Sunday morning before precipitation ends. However, only light ice accumulation amounts look possible at this time.
By dinnertime, a cold front moving from the west will be over-top of us, raring to bring below average temperatures for the rest of the week.
Lots of sun is expected the remainder of the week, but a cold Arctic airmass will keep afternoon temperatures way down.
The next 48 hours will include much of the same, bitter cold that has invaded the central and eastern U.S.
Warm air begins to advect (propagate) into southern and middle Tennessee during the day on Sunday. The center of high pressure that was entrenched over-top of us keeping our temperatures down will slide east towards the Appalachians, and relatively warmer air will arrive to replace the chill.
A dividing line between relatively warmer air and very cold polar air is expected to reach middle Tennessee later this evening. Behind this cold front, temperatures will fall below freezing overnight.
GFS 850mb Temperatures Loop
Over the course of the next few days, some of the coldest air of the season will take control, per NWS Nashville:
Friday and Saturday mornings we are looking at the coldest temperatures thus far this meteorological winter.
Have a look at this temperature fall-out from Thursday through the first half of the weekend:
Needless to say, your winter wardrobe will be out in full force later this week.
There’s no reason to be very excited about this, but the first flakes of the winter are always of interest.
Another wave of energy will eject out of the mid south late Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing enough moisture to send a few showers our way. This event will be a “sleeper”, or one that occurs overnight, into early Thursday. At times a few snowflakes could mix in with the rain, but as expected, no accumulation is even remotely possible.
NWS Nashville:
...we could see a chance for light rain here in Middle Tennessee after midnight possibly mixing with a flake or two of snow over northern areas of the Mid State along the higher elevations...
A chilly rain, at that.
If you’re planning on a night out, a rain jacket, boots, and/or an umbrella would all be helpful.
How about four more days of it?
Sunday will start as a continuation of Saturday with showers encompassing most of the middle state.
GFS 12z Run – Dry Conditions for next 36 hours
Through Saturday, high pressure will remain entrenched over the area, with westerly winds swinging around the north side of its center.
This brings us cooler and drier air to the two-county region through Friday. Then, changes start back up.
Waking up on Sunday morning, temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s accompanied by some showers. This will be a cold rain, and if you’re traveling towards the Cumberland area, don’t be surprised to see a few snowflakes on the northern side of the plateau in the morning.
GFS 12z Run – Rain Returning Early Sunday
Several pieces of energy (shortwaves) will work their way across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valley from Sunday through mid-week. There will be breaks in the rain activity here and there, one of these times likely being Monday morning. However, expect off and on rain showers starting Sunday morning, rinsing and repeating through the work week.
Rain totals through Tuesday morning could range from 1-2″:
Wednesday PM-Thursday AM: we are watching for a strong cold front to make its way here. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with this system as a robust low pressure system develops over the Rockies and travels through the midwest into the Great Lakes region.
NWS Nashville on mid-week storm:
Another strong Midwest trough will move in Thursday next week, and again models are in pretty good agreement on magnitude but slightly off on timing. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning looks to be the consensus on timing, so have high chance pops in for that timeframe. The upper trough also brings a very strong cold front to the region, so if some precip lingers behind the front, flurries or light snow showers will be possible for the mid state Thursday morning into the early afternoon. With highs only in the low 40s Thursday, it looks like we will get a small taste of winter at the end of the forecast.
What does this mean for us? Simply put, it is discussing the northern movement of a better severe weather environment. The closer that warm front gets to Davidson/Williamson counties, the more unstable our atmosphere could potentially become tonight. We still think the *best* ingredients for tornado development is ever-so-slightly to our south, but this does not mean we are free from seeing severe weather or possibly a tornado.
Overall, a nice weekend is ahead if you need to finish any yard work or holiday decorating.
Sunday is the pick day with highs in the low 60s. Why so warm? A high pressure system currently over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley slides east and we end up on the backside, where warm southerly flow begins to work in.
