Thursday S-no-w Possibility: Meh.

That’s right! Talkin’ ’bout snow!

To be clear: “a chance of snow.” Or, a “pretty low chance of snow.”

But first, what’s happening today:

Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Temps

Rain

Snow

Today – Decreasing Temps – 4 PM High 43°

A cold front pushed through Middle Tennessee last night, slowly dropping temps during the day.The 9 AM NAM shows colder air funneling into Nashville.

15z temp

This means the the 54° we saw at 3 AM this morning will be the high for the day. We will also remain mostly cloudy.

Wednesday – Colder – Wake Up 34°, High 45°

We will be partly sunny, which will make the colder conditions a bit more bearable.

Falling overnight temps coupled with a low pressure disturbance originating from the SW will give us a slight chance for snow late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

Thursday Morning Snow Potential

We are talking about late Wednesday night through 9 AM Thursday. That’s when a weak low pressure system is forecast to move west-northwest while cooler air continues to surge south.

The weather models are in rough agreement with regards to timing of the event (midnight through 9 AM), but they still cannot reach a consensus on whether it will rain or snow here.

To illustrate this point:

NAM4 model

Not shown are the NAM4’s thoughts on temps at 5,000 feet of +2°C. Meh!

Canadian model

This model thinks it may be cold enough around 6 AM for snow, but notice it isn’t real excited about our snow chances.

GFS Model

Well, that’s interesting.

Euro Model

Not pictured! But I’m looking at it right now, and it shows the freezing line in Kentucky, with surface temps in TN between 32° and 35°. The freezing line at 5,000 feet is straight across I-40. This is a very unconvincing snow presentation, and this is the snowiest of the models.

NWS-Nashville says we may see a light rain changeover to light snow in the wee hours of Thursday morning, but “nothing at this time that should have a significant impact on travel or commerce across the mid state.”

We’re expected to shoot up to the upper 30°s by mid-morning, 41° by noon, so anything that falls doesn’t stand much a chance of sticking.  Plus, the system isn’t a big precip-maker anyway, so there isn’t much to work with.

So, while this certainly has our attention, this is a really marginal snow threat. Meh. Better study for that Thursday morning test.

Thursday – Lingering Rain – Wake Up 33°, High 46°

Any lingering wintry mix should be all rain after the morning commute. We hold onto slight rain chances until 7 PM.

Extended:

extended

More rain in store for the weekend.

Wait. What?

I thought we were talking snow for Saturday morning?

The trend the last few days was away from any meaningful snow. This trend continues. This looks more like a cold rain event in the morning, with maybe a potential for a few Saturday night flakes. But, as NWS-Nashville said this morning, “the best bet is for a chilly rain.”

This website is part of the ongoing conversation on Twitter @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find that here.

Snow Potential Thursday/Saturday Mornings: Meh

Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Temps

Rain

Overnight – Cold Front Arrives 

Most of the rain is gone for tonight, but when cold front cruises across I-65 around 1 AM or 2 AM, expect a few light showers with it.

Tuesday – Lingering Showers & Mostly Cloudy – Wake Up 47°, High 51°

We may see a few light, dreary drizzlers in the morning.

The rest of the day will be mostly cloudy. The winds will become northwesterly and begin pump in a colder and drier air mass.

Wednesday – Colder – Wake Up 35°, High 45°

We will be much colder, but mostly sunny skies will make it tolerable.

We will have a chance for rain/snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Snow Potential:

We are talking about late Wednesday night through 9 AM Thursday. That’s when a weak low pressure system is forecast to move north while cooler air continues to surge south.

The weather models are in rough agreement with regards to timing of the event (midnight through 6 AM), but they disagree significantly about whether it will be rain or snow.

Canadian model

6z - 12z can

This model says no snow in Middle Tennessee. Freezing temps will be too far north.

GFS Model

6z - 12z GFS

Maaaaybe a possibility for snow. Probably just rain, but still may see some flakes.

Euro Model

The European Model is showing a dusting of snow in Nashville.

Not pictured. They won’t let us post their maps.

In a nutshell:

If we do have snowfall, none of it will stick to the ground and accumulate because the surface temps will be too warm.

Extended:

extended

Editor’s Note: Since I went on and on and on about it yesterday, I wanted to update the weekend forecast.

Remember, whether we get snow late Friday night into Saturday morning all depends on the low pressure center passing far enough, but not too far, to our southeast. We want it far enough away from us to allow for freezy air to advect south into MIddle TN, and close enough to all for precip to wrap Crazy Ivan style (east to west) into our area. If that low passes over us, or to our W or N, it’ll be cold rain.

GFS says: No Snow! Low too close. Freezing line is too far north for accumulating snow, and, in fact, temps at 5,000 feet are expected above freezing. Cold rain:

Canadian Model, like the GFS, won’t bring the freezy temps into TN. It also has temps at 5,000 feet above freezing. Just a cold rain:

Below is an artist’s rendering (ignore the non-artsy lines) of the European Model. It believes in snow Saturday morning:

Which to believe? NWS-Nashville wrote this morning “gut feeling and past winters both indicate to me that the GFS is the better solution.” That would me no snow.

Party/Panic accordingly.

More tomorrow.

This website is part of the ongoing conversation on Twitter @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find that here.

Warming & 100% Chance Of Manning

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

When I was trying out for the coveted Intern 2.0 position last February, I posted a blog that took a shot at Mr. Tennessee…AKA Peyton Manning.

http://nswx–legacy-backup.local/the-intern-applicant-2-on-more-rain-and-lol-snow/

After this egregious offense I was promptly demanded to write a 5,000 word essay about how awesome Peyton is! I was reminded of this essay yesterday…

peyton

Since I write nearly everyday for @NashSevereWx I figured I would use Peyton Manning gif’s until either the boss man says it is sufficient or the viewers get sick of it.

Today – Sunny – High 48°

Today we will be a bit chilly but the sun will shine almost as bright as the Tennessee Volunteer orange does.

Clouds are expected tonight.

Saturday – Warming & Mostly Cloudy – Wake Up 31°, High 51°

We will once again begin the day below freezing, but Mr. Manning will call an audible at the line and we will crack into the lower 50’s under mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon.

Sunday – Warming – Wake Up 35°, High 5

We will be partly cloudy and afternoon highs will top out in the mid 50’s.

Extended Forecast:

extended

A low pressure system coupled with showers will make their way into Middle Tennessee during the beginning of next week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

The Sun

Has nothing to do with weather, but whoa.

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Clouds Clearing – High 44°

The large low pressure system that is tracking up the East Coast (aka, the nor’easter) will help pump cooler and drier air in on the back of a north wind. Here is a look at what the NAM is thinking the jet stream (upper level winds) and the the nor’easter will look like at noon.

18z 300mb winds

This cooler and drier air will help clear out the cloud cover after noon. The HRRR is showing the clouds will mix out around 1 PM.

Visible Satellite Loop (let it load):

The Sun!

Friday – Rebound – Wake Up 27°, High 49°

After a cold morning, calm winds and sunny skies will help us rebound into the upper 40’s.

Saturday – Warming – Wake Up 30°, High 53°

We will start off below freezing once again, but will crack into the 50’s for our high during the afternoon.

We will continue this warming trend into the beginning of next week.

Extended Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

Here Comes The Sun (And Maybe a Few Sprinkles)

Here comes the sun,here comes the sun, And I say

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Warmest Day of the Week; Partly Sunny; Brief/Drive-By Sprinkles – High 54°

The sun will peek through a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

An overnight disturbance will swing through Middle Tennessee. This will give us overcast skies and a very slight chance for a few sprinkles during rush hour and beyond. This will be very light, if any, precip.

A dusting of snow is possible far away to the east of Nashville, in the Upper Cumberland Plateau.

Davidson and Williamson Counties are not expected to have any snow.

To repeat:

Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, but Colder – Wake Up 37°, High 42°

Brace yourself for the sun!

Winds will become northerly (10 mph – 15 mph, with a 20 mph gust) and usher in cooler air.

Wednesday – Cool & Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 32°, High 42°

A north wind will continue to push cooler air into Nashville, but we will remain mostly sunny!

Extended Forecast:

extended

Lows in the 20°s and highs in the mid/upper 40°s will round out the work week.

Finally, the temp trend over the next few weeks (aka Forecast Voo-Doo Land) looks to be without any super-cold days:

Random gif:

This website is only a part of the ongoing weather conversation on Twitter @NashSevereWx, which you can find here.

Drier & Colder

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cooling – High 56°

A cold front coupled with showers and thunderstorms moved through Middle Tennessee last night/early this morning and dropped a good amount of rain.

Davidson County:

rain totals davidson

Williamson County:

rain totals williamson

Most places accumulated between 1.5″ and 2″ of rain.

Overcast skies will build in overnight.

Sunday – Partly Sunny, Chilly North Breeze – Wake Up 37° (Wind Chill 30°), High 50°

The sun!!!!

IMG_0178.GIF

Way.

Monday – Partly Sunny – Wake Up 37°, High 54°

Middle Tennessee will remain rain free with a high temp in the mid 50’s.

Mostly cloudy skies will slowly become partly cloudy as the day progresses.

Extended Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

Rain on Tonight’s Parade

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

TodayGrinch Storm – High 66°

A warm front has moved through Middle Tennessee late this morning, which is giving us a chance for hit/miss showers until tonight’s Grinch Storm (disturbance moving out of the Southern Plains) makes it to Nashville late this afternoon / early evening… Just in time for the Nashville Christmas Parade.

nashville xmas parade

Schedule of Events

6:30 p.m.
Mayor’s Tree Lighting festivities begin at Public Square in front of the courthouse

Immediately following: Fireworks

7:00 p.m.
Parade start

2014 Parade Route:

Note this is a rain-or-shine event. The weather will not be severe.

Two weather models have ETAs:

NAM4 Model

According to this model, the Grinch Storm will be on our door steps by 5 PM.

23z NAM sim rad

Rain will continue all night until Saturday morning.

HRRR Model

The HRRR is showing the Grinch Storm moving into Nashville at 4 PM.

22z HRRR sim rad

Again, the rain will stick around until Saturday morning.

The GFS and Euro models generally agree.

Here’s a regional current radar loop:

Bottom Line

It’s going to rain this afternoon/tonight until tomorrow morning. We may even see a few innocent, no-worry thunderstorms. You will need rain gear, but note: the temp will be in mid-to-low 60°s the whole time. So, not a cold rain.

Saturday – Cold Front; End of Rain – Wake Up & High 57°

A cold front will push through Middle Tennessee early Saturday morning behind the Grinch Storm.The NAM shows the line of showers accompanying the cold front to our SE by 8 AM.

14z nam

This will usher in a cooler and drier air throughout the day. Our high temperature will be reached during the morning and then temps will drop throughout the day.

From 12 PM to 6 PM temps will drop from the lower 50’s to the lower 40’s.

Sunday – Cool & Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 37°, High 52°

As cooler and drier air continues to filter in, we will become mostly sunny during the afternoon.

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

The Grinch Storm (-14) vs. The Christmas Parade

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cloudy & Showers Possible – High 55°

We will have scattered showers off/on before noon, and then we dry out the rest of the day.

However, overnight, a warm front will be moving on in from the south. That means rain Friday.

Friday – The Grinch Storm – Wake Up 52°, High 66°

2014 Parade Route:

The Parade festivities start at 6:30 PM. The actual parade starts at 7 PM. Details.

Editor’s Note: Frequent/Long Time readers and Twitterers may recall more than a few rants about naming winter storms. I think a TV channel naming winter storms is a bad idea, and I usually make hilarious-in-my-mind-only jokes like “Hey! I’ve decided to name today’s thunderstorms ‘thunderstorms.’ Snow tomorrow (when we used to get snow, lol, RIP Snow) we will call ‘snow.’ And rain, I don’t know, how about we call that ‘rain.'” Stuff like that. 

This week we learned you can purchase naming rights to European weather systems, which I suppose really isn’t different than what should be called “Titans Stadium” being called “L.P. Field.” I get it. If you want us to name stuff, you have to pay for the rights. Advertising 101.

So, in order to achieve Maximum Hypocrisy, and because I think it conveys a weather message, I’m naming the weather system bringing the rain we expect to see for Friday’s Christmas Parade “The Grinch Storm.”

Revelers may recall The Grinch Storm also arrived in time to cancel last year’s parade, but that was due to a Winter Weather Advisory, which was at least a Christmassy way of doing it.

Not this year. By 6 AM Friday, a warm front will have lifted over us, like a warm blanket your mom used to put over you when tucking you in on a cold night.

Clouds will pile in, and moisture will begin to pour into Middle Tennessee from the SW.

According to the NAM4 Model

A few hours before the parade, a downpour:

We may even see a few thunderstorms, but nothing strong or severe.

However, the NAM4 thinks there may be a break in the rain, or at least a shift from steady to off/on rain, around parade time. By 3 AM, a cold front will be shoving more rain across Middle TN:

So, there is hope here.

GFS Model

This model thinks it’ll rain, except its timing is about 6 hours later than the NAM4, although it’s hard to say considering the GFS has a lower temporal resolution than the NAM4. Still, looks wet. Just not as wet as NAM4.

Euro Model

Like the GFS, it also has a low temporal resolution, but it too thinks we will see rain during parade time, just less of it when compared to the NAM4.

Bottom Line

Rain is likely tomorrow night. We may even see a few innocent, no-worry thunderstorms. You will need rain gear, but note: the temp will be in mid-to-low 60°s the whole time. So, not a cold rain.

You might want to check back with us tomorrow morning. We’ll have the benefit of radar trends and the HRRR model, which will help us resolve some of the timing disputes in the models we see right now.

Saturday – Cold Front; Rain Ending – Wake Up 57°, High 58°

A cold front will make its way through Middle Tennessee during the early morning hours, producing a little rain early, then clearing us out sometime around noon.

The NAM shows the line of showers associated with cold front over Nashville at 3 AM. Below is a regional and zoomed in look.

9z sim rad

9z sim rad zoom

After noon (plus or minus a few hours), the showers will have pushed off to the SE… Leaving us cooler and dry!

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting between 1″+ of rain between 6 AM Thursday and 6 AM Sunday.

qpf 1-3

Most of this rain will fall Friday PM / Saturday AM.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

Update on Rain Chances

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cloudy & Cool – High 49°

A weak cold front has moved through Middle Tennessee and will continue to sag to the southeast throughout the day. This will usher in cooler and drier air. The NAM shows the cooler air into Nashville by 3 PM.

21z 2m temp

Due to this cold front, our high temperature will only rise a few degrees above our low (44° F) from this morning. Additionally, the sun could peak through the clouds because of drier air mixing in.

Overnight, the cloud cover will return, and with it, a slight chance for showers.

The National Weather Service is predicting a slight chance for showers to begin after 7 PM, which is the same time from the HRRR model thinks we will see them.

Thursday – Showers Possible – Wake Up 38°, High 54°

Thursday will begin with morning hit/miss garden variety showers. The High Res NAM is showing scattered showers beginning in Davidson and Williamson Counties around 5 AM.

11z sim rad

The NWS believes the bulk of the activity will occur after 7 AM. We will hold onto the slight chance for showers during the afternoon and into the evening, but those will be more isolated.

Overnight, the winds will shift and become southerly. This will usher in a warmer and more moist air mass ahead of a disturbance.

Friday & Saturday – Rain Arrives – Highs 64° Friday & 59° Saturday

The disturbance will be ringing our doorbell

by the afternoon. The NAM’s Simulated Radar shows the showers reaching us by 3 PM.

21z sim rad

The showers will continue overnight into Saturday morning… Which is when the heaviest rain is forecast to fall. The NAM is showing the most intense showers around 6 AM.

12z sim rad sat

Rain will continue to fall until late Saturday afternoon.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting between 1″ to 1.5″ of accumulated rain between 6 AM Wednesday and 6 AM Monday!

qpf 5 day

Most of this rain will fall Friday PM/ Saturday AM. The Euro is showing 1″ – 1.3″ of rain during this time frame!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

Back & Forth

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Over the next few days, a weak front will oscillate back and forth over Middle Tennessee, bringing us chances for light rain with temps above seasonal norms.

Tuesday – Cloudy & Showers Possible – High 50°

The cold front that marched through yesterday lost its mojo, and is currently sitting between Tuscaloosa and Chattanooga.

This afternoon into the evening, a southwesterly wind will push the weak front back north of Middle Tennessee. This means warmer temps and the chance for off/on light showers all day.

Wednesday – Slight Chance Of Showers – Wake-Up 44°, High 56°

A low pressure system positioned over the Great Lakes will push the front south of us once again!

Don’t fear: Temps will remain above average and we will only have a slight chance for light off/on showers as the front nears. The best chance for rain will be during the morning hours through the mid-afternoon. Overnight we will likely be dry.

Thursday – Showers Possible – Wake-Up 42°, High 53°

A disturbance will approach from the east-southeast and cause the weak front to once again march north through Davidson and Williamson Counties. This will usher in warmer temps and the chance for off/on showers.

The front will have completely moved through Middle Tennessee late Thursday night into Friday Morning.

Despite rain chances every day, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center thinks we will see less than an inch of accumulated rain between 6 AM Tuesday and 6 AM Friday:

qpf 1-3

Extended:

extended

The disturbance will likely arrive to Nashville between 6 AM – 10 AM on Friday and give us a good soaking Friday night into Saturday morning.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.