Rain Today & Tonight

Today – Showers – High 78°

Showers and thunderstorms are being pushed into Middle Tennessee by a cold front today. The NAM’s Simulated Radar shows a line of showers and thunderstorms nearing Nashville at 1 PM, but current radar trends suggest light rain may begin before then.

18z sim rad

The Storm Prediction Center thinks there is a marginal (that’s pretty low) risk for strong storms.

spc day 1

The only real concern is straight-line winds, but the probability of that is only 5%.

Rain will continue into the overnight hours.

Wednesday – Cool & Clearing – Wake Up 50°, High 66°

Showers will linger into the morning, followed by cooler, drier air filtering in throughout the day. Between 7 AM (Tuesday) through 7 AM (Wednesday) between 0.5″ and 1″ is expected.

qpf day 1

If we end up with more than 0.75″ of rain, this will be the wettest recorded October since 1919 (8.35″).

Thursday Clear & CoolWake Up 41°, High 64°

We’ll get a cool northwest wind.

Fall is back y’all!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Record Heat Possible Today; Cooler Weather Right Behind It

Monday – Record High – High 86°

A SW wind will bring warmer conditions and maybe even break the previous record high of 84° set back in 1940.

Fall returns soon. A cold front will bring us back into the 70’s by Tuesday.

Tuesday – Cold Front – Wake Up 61°, High 77°

A cold front is poised to march through Nashville beginning around noon. The NAM has the front making it to Nashville around 1 PM.

18z sim rad

That ETA is debatable. According to the National Weather Service, showers are “likely” from noon into the overnight hours. Severe weather is not expected.

WednesdayDrying & CoolWake Up 53°, High 65°

Showers may linger until noon, and then we will begin to dry out. According to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, we could see between 0.5″ and 1″ of rain from Monday (7 AM) through Wednesday (7 AM).

qpf 1-2

Fall-like weather will return again!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Thursday: Frost Advisory 4 AM to 8 AM; Partial Solar Eclipse

The National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM Thursday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 30°s. Protect your plants!

Also, there will be a partial eclipse Thursday.

Details on this stuff below.

Editor’s Note: Apparently, what happens when The Intern 2.0’s assignment is to write up yet another “more fall-like conditions, no rain” forecast is this Mr. Rogers theme. I apologize to all of you for this strangely compelling whatever it is.

I also double dog dare you

to watch that remix at the bottom. 

It’s a neighborly day…

Bring on the Mr. Rogers gifs!

Thursday – Frost Advisory Early; Partial Eclipse; Sunny & Cool – Wake Up 39°, High 6

As mentioned above, a Frost Advisory is in effect between 4 AM and 8 AM. The official forecast keeps the low at 39°, but low lying areas should dip into the 30°s, hence the Advisory.

Details on Thursday’s late afternoon partial eclipse:

Otherwise, we will remain pleasant, dry and sunny.

FridayMostly SunnyWake Up 44°, High 70°

Another gorgeous day!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Internet Explorer 2014-10-22 16.39.17

Words of wisdom via music video:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Thumbs Up

Dry fall conditions will continue for at least the next seven days. The next rain chance does not appear until Tuesday, October 28, and even that looks very unlikely.

A weak front swept through Middle Tennessee this morning, keeping us dry, sunny, and pleasant.

To keep us interested in this pleasantly boring weather pattern, behold the following gifs, which have little to do with anything.

Wednesday – Sunny & Cool – Wake Up 42°, High 65°

Cool air will continue to filter in behind the cold front. Highs will struggle to get into the upper 60°s.

hilarious animated GIF

ThursdayChilly & SunnyWake Up 40°, High 67°

We will start off a bit chilly, then warm up into the the mid 60°s under sunny skies.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

extended

Random gifs:

funny animated GIF

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Maybe A Few Afternoon Showers; Fall Weather Still Cruisin’

Tuesday – Sunny & Pleasant – Wake Up 50°, High 6

Patchy fog is likely in the morning in the usual spots. Pleasant fall weather will have its hands at 10 & 2, with the cruise control set.

WednesdayChilly & SunnyWake Up 43°, High 63°

Still cruisin’ but a bit chilly.

Kick & push & coast (Editor’s Note: um, OK, so I’m letting The Intern 2.0 enjoy literary license).

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Fall-Like Weather Here To Stay

Today – Pleasant –  High 65°

Pleasant air will filter in behind the dry cold front which passed by, leaving us cool and dry.

Sunday – October-Like Weather – Wake Up 44°, High 65°

High pressure will continue to pump in fall weather.

MondayAnother Cold Front – Wake Up 44°, High 68°

During the day, we will be mostly sunny and pleasant, but overnight another weak cold front is poised to scoot through.

This will bring a slight chance of showers over night!

Extended:

extended

I appears the fall-like weather is finally here to stay!

Taking a peek 6- 10 days ahead:

The National Weather Service produced a 6-10 day national outlook for both precipitation and temperature. Meaning, this outlook will tell us how October 22nd through October 26th is trending.

6 – 10 day Temperature Outlook.

6-10 temp outlook

6 – 10 day Precipitation Outlook.

6-10 precip outlook

The NWS believes that Wednesday through Sunday of next week will be slightly cooler and drier than the seasonal average. After looking at the long range models, it doesn’t look like we will dip below freezing anytime soon.

Winter Outlook:

The Climate Prediction Center issued its precipitation and temperature forecast. The CPC also stated on October 9th “that the ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not yet happened, so they continued the El Niño Watch with a 67 percent chance of development by the end of the year.” What’s that mean? During El Niño years, the Southeast experiences more precipitation than normal. Here is a look at the CPC’s Winter Outlook Maps.

Temperature:

temp winter outlook

Precipitation:

winter precip outlook

The CPC believes that we will be cooler than the seasonal average and have an equal chance to either be drier or wetter than normal. If we do move into an El Niño phase, expect to be wetter than normal. Here is a video that explains it all!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Pleasant Weekend & A Peek Ahead

Today – Sunny & Dry –  High 78°

A dry cold front will work its way through Middle Tennessee late this afternoon into the evening, bringing sunny conditions with it.

Saturday – October-Like Weather Returns – Wake Up 51°, High 66°

The dry cold front will usher in more cool and dry air.

SundayPleasant – Wake Up 44°, High 63°

These cool and dry conditions will be in autopilot into the latter half of next week. No rain expected in the foreseeable future.

Extended:

extended

Taking a peek 6- 10 days ahead:

The National Weather Service produced a 6-10 day national outlook for both precipitation and temperature. Meaning, this outlook will tell us how October 22nd through October 26th is trending.

6 – 10 day Temperature Outlook.

6-10 temp outlook

6 – 10 day Precipitation Outlook.

6-10 precip outlook

The NWS believes that Wednesday through Sunday of next week will be slightly cooler and drier than the seasonal average. After looking at the long range models, it doesn’t look like we will dip below freezing anytime soon.

Winter Outlook:

The Climate Prediction Center issued its precipitation and temperature forecast. The CPC also stated on October 9th “that the ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not yet happened, so they continued the El Niño Watch with a 67 percent chance of development by the end of the year.” What’s that mean? During El Niño years, the Southeast experiences more precipitation than normal. Here is a look at the CPC’s Winter Outlook Maps.

Temperature:

temp winter outlook

Precipitation:

winter precip outlook

The CPC believes that we will be cooler than the seasonal average and have an equal chance to either be drier or wetter than normal. If we do move into an El Niño phase, expect to be wetter than normal. Here is a video that explains it all!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Clearing Soon, Pleasant Weekend

Today – Cool & Dry –  Low 65°

The overcast skies are in no hurry to depart.

Track our proximity to clear skies on visible satellite!

Friday – Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 49°, High 78°

We will start off a bit chilly, but mostly sunny skies will send temps to the upper 70’s.

SaturdaySunny & Pleasant – Wake Up 51°, High 68°

The sunshine and pleasant conditions continue!

Extended:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Gross Morning, Cloudy Thursday, Awesome Weekend

Wednesday Night – Lingering Showers & Cloudiness –  Low 50°s

As an upper level low continues to pull off to the east, it will spin light, off/on showers and cloudiness into our area.

(Editor’s Note: That’s Paris Hilton and an orangutang named Gucci. Of course it is).

Thursday – Patchy Fog/Drizzly Early, Then Just Cloudy & Clearing – Wake Up 51°, High 66°

Although we will be mostly cloudy, the rain will no longer be an issue!

(Editor’s Note: she’s “relieved.”)

Friday – Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 49°, High 77°

We will start off a bit cool, but mostly sunny skies will help warm us up nicely.

The Weekend Awesome


This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Little Rainy, then a Drying & Cooling Trend

We dodged a bullet yesterday. The Cumberland Electric Company Reported that over 2,000 people in Clarksville lost power last night — in the area with a tornado signature on radar.

power out

Today the NWS is surveying what appeared to be a long-track tornado-producing supercell which moved across western Middle TN late Monday afternoon.

Here, we had minor wind damage and plenty of rain.

Davidson County saw between 2″ & 3.75″

Williamson County got mostly between 2″ and 2.5″, with a few locations in the western county racking up over 4″!

There could still be water covering the roadways in low laying areas. (Cue generic gif of a reporter not from Tennessee reporting on WAY more rain than we got last night).

Current Temp:

Current Radar Loops:

Today – More Rain, Clearing Late – Wake Up 65°, High 70°

The storms are gone. We’ll see a clearing/sunshine this morning, but this afternoon and tonight we expect light rain as the low pressure center swoops in.

water vapor

The HRRR Model believes that we will get scatteered showers off and on all day.

Here is what the HRRR’s Simulated Radar looks like at 12 PM.

17z HRRR sim radar

Overnight the actual cold front will pass through, ending rain chances and cooling us off!

Wednesday – Cool Front Arrives — Wake Up 55°, High 59°

We are only forecast to warm a total of 4 degrees. Chilly!  We also can’t rule out showers between 8 AM and 8 PM because of a lingering, drippy Autumn weather pattern.

ThursdayShowers Clearing OffWake Up 51°, High 63°

The National Weather Service believes skies will clear Thursday, but the cold air mass will remain over us.

By Friday we will be mostly sunny and dry!

Extended:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.