Frost Tonight; Hail, Severe Weather Concern Monday

Today, the Storm Prediction Center outlooked us for severe weather for Monday:

Storm Prediction Center Oct 4, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - Internet Explorer 2014-10-04 19.50.22

Let’s first review Sunday’s weather.

Overnight/SundayFrost Advisory – Wake up 37°, High 71° read more

Fall Weekend; Frost Advisory Early Tomorrow

Current Official Temp

Watch the cold front’s arrival on last night’s hourly observations:

SaturdayMuch Colder, Sunny, Frost Advisory Overnight – High 62°

A west/northwest wind at 14-16 MPH will be blowing, tossing more cold air at us. Winds will die down after the sun goes down. You need a jacket today. read more

A Fall Weekend

The line of thunderstorms that moved through last night produced a handful of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (winds 58+ mph) in both Davidson & Williamson Counties.

We finally got some rain:

Davidson County: read more

Squall Line ETA 1 AM to 4 AM

As I write this at 8:15 PM, a robust squall line stretches from Austin TX to Indianapolis IN, prompting Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings along the way. Again, the below image is from 8:15 PM: read more

A Squall Line That May Try To Wake You Up

The 20z (that is nerd for 3 PM) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outlook has been issued!

For the period beginning now and extending through 7 AM Friday, the Storm Prediction Center’s opinion remains basically the same. read more

Squall Line Coming: Rain, Slight Risk of Damaging Winds

The lunchtime Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outlook has been issued, and through 7 AM Friday, little has changed:

As you can see, we remain included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather. read more

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Overnight

This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued its severe weather outlook through 7 AM Friday:

Storm Prediction Center Oct 2, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Internet Explorer 2014-10-02 09.02.49

As you can see, we are included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather. We’re in this category because the SPC thinks there is a 15% probability of a 58+ mph damaging wind gust within 25 miles of you, illustrated here on this map: read more

Here Comes The Cold Front

Hot Wednesday & Thursday — Rain & Storms Very Late Thursday Into Friday — Clearing Late Friday — Chilly Saturday

Today Abnormally Hot – High 89°

Fresh off the 3rd driest September, also the 10th driest month ever (since records were being kept in 1871), today marks the first day of October. So how about 10° above the normal? The culprit is a ridge of high pressure sending in warm air on a southwesterly flow (“flow” means wind). The satellite water vapor image below shows the southwesterly flow (red arrow) and a trough of low pressure, coupled with a cold front (blue arrow) moving eastward. read more