Tuesday – Rain Ending – High 87, Humidity Dropping Late

7a 72 . 10a 80 . 1p 85 . 4p 87 . 7p 82 . 10p 73

The cold front will be hard at work delivering much cooler, more comfortable weather. You survived dew points 75+. You deserve a read more

Tonight

A few more showers are possible, but rain chances will decrease after dark. However, plenty of storm-juice to feed on will remain overnight. Lightning, heavy rain likely inside the few “rogue” storms which do develop. read more

Sooo, What Happened? Why Didn’t It Rain?

Last night and this morning, all indications said rain. Sure enough, this morning a lot of rain was streaming east from Arkansas and West Tennessee, moving our way. Our NWS quickly issued a Flash Flood Watch. read more

First, let’s review final rainfall totals from Thursday’s Flash Flood:

Despite destroying the record of 1.99″ set in 1923, the record remains because the official measurement is taken at the airport, where rainfall totals didn’t even approach 1.99″.

Tonight & Tomorrow – Rain Likely – Saturday’s High 88

Fri 7pm 79 . 10pm 77

Sat 7am 74 . 10am 82 . 1pm 86 . 4pm 88 . 7pm 85 . 10pm 77

Behold this epic, informative run-on sentence from the NWS afternoon forecast discussion:

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS A BROAD SWATH FROM PLAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS LADEN WITH MOISTURE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT BEING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE LOCALLY ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL AT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST SAGS DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY. read more

Note — New post coming Friday afternoon.

Friday – Some Strong Storms Possible – High 88

7am 74 . 10am 82 . 1pm 86 . 4pm 88 . 7pm 85 . 10pm 79

A weakening line of storms is modeled to approach in the morning. We are hoping it will move through fairly quickly and not be a repeat of Thursday, but if the storms “train” or stall, we could be looking at more flooding. read more

Davidson County is currently (at 6 a.m.) under a Flash Flood Warning and Flood Advisories for Whites Creek at Bordeaux and Dry Creek at Edenwold. Rain will continue to “train” across Davidson County until around 7 a.m. or so.

So, what about tonight? We asked three weather models:

HRRR

According to the HRRR, the rain will return after lunch. Here it is at 1 p.m.:

The rain hangs around for a few hours, then is gone in time for the Titans game, Live On The Green, etc.

The other models do not agree.

RAP

This model keeps a stray shower around for kickoff and the opening act tonight. Here it is at 7 p.m.:

NAM

The NAM also predicts rain at the game/concert tonight, at least at the start:

Our NWS puts the rain chances at 50% to 60% for late afternoon/early evening. More from our NWS:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. read more

Tonight – Thunderstorms? – High 79

I have never seen short range weather models this scattered and inconsistent with each other.

David did a 2:03 video about tonight’s weather, concluding it’s OK to go out: screencast.com/t/YaCzUuuLet  read more

Wednesday – Some Strong Storms Possible – High 88

7am 73 . 10am 81 . 1pm 85 . 4pm 87 . 7pm 84 . 10pm 78

Wind damage, localized flooding and frequent lightning are all possible with any developing storms Wednesday. Thunderstorms should begin to fire in the early afternoon hours, and maybe even before that. read more

Tonight – Light Rain Breaking Up – High 84

Dew points are still relatively low, but as rain approaches from the west, it will bring with it higher dew points and higher humidity.

Very light rain may arrive (if it holds together) just in time for the commute home tonight.  The rain should be gone before midnight. Some fog could develop late tonight after the rain. read more

Here is the radar though noon:

This is what the HRRR thinks we will see this afternoon and tonight – a weakening rain shower or two with an ETA around dusk:

The Intern will be by later this afternoon with his usual next-few-days forecast. read more