Nice weather today and most of Sunday. Although a few of us may see a quick shower/storm Sunday afternoon, I think majority of us get by with a dry weekend. Highs in the mid 80s.
Not much of a break from storm chances as they return to the forecast on Monday.
Morning round of storms has mostly stayed off to the north – and probably will stay that way. I could see us being dry thru this afternoon, or later. Although can’t totally rule out an isolated storm.
Today will be hot and (probably) dry. Very, very, very low chance of storms thanks to a “cap” in place – which is just a layer of warm, stable air aloft. Highs near 90°.
Friday morning we could see some showers/storms move thru, most likely between 3a – 9a. Gusty winds, small hail and lightning not out of the question with these. Allowing some extra time for the AM commute not a bad idea.
A storm may pop this afternoon but the HRRR is clear. Storms more likely east of us. Small hail and gusty winds the potential hazards. We are not severe outlooked.
2. HRRR has storms Thu PM rush hour. May go north, maybe not. We’ll watch this. No severe expected here. Lightning, heavy rain instead.
3. Severe weather possible Friday.
This evening…
An upper low is spinning over the Lower Mississippi Valley and still has its hands in our weather. Daytime heating has cooked up CAPE (storm fuel) which has sparked storms. CAMs (those fancy short-term models we love) showed most of the action east of I-65 toward the Plateau. But this evening’s radar shows storms a little more widespread.
Severe weather not forecast for us this week (western Ken. has a Thursday slight risk extending north through Ill., Ind., and Wisco.).
Rain, lightning, heat as minor hazards ahead.
2. More rain Monday, but probably not all day. HRRR has morning rain then some scattered evening showers.
Downpours may pass through anytime Sunday, but most of us should stay dry or just a little bit rained on for Mother’s Day. Keep plans.
2. Rainout Alert for Monday and Tuesday. HRRR only runs out to 8 AM Monday but we see heavy rain working north for Monday afternoon.
A system passing to our south continues to wobble, tossing us forecast uncertainty. Latest HRRR is wobbling north and bringing us nuisance rain chances:
Three Things.
FOENUS: We may hit 90° later next week.
Steep lapse rates aloft punched up large hail today. Hail was technically severe (1″ in diameter) for many, especially in north Franklin to Cool Springs to Brentwood. Wind driven hail made impacts worse. You may have a hail damaged roof.
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