Rain, Cold Mornings, Weekend Rain Event (storm/snow comments)

Rain showers later today/tonight.

  • 1. Brief, chilly, and unevenly rainfall caused by – impress coworkers at holiday parties with a well timed – this “is common for these clipper systems.”
  • 2. Rainout/Washout unlikely.
  • 3. You may hear talk of “snow” — that’s for non-accumulating snow potential on the plateau.
  • 4. GEO ICYMI: The plateau is east of us – think between Cookeville and Crossville – they’re at higher elevation – easier for them to snow than us.

Near/Freezing Morning Temps & Thursday’s Marginal Fire Danger

  • 1. Ice may form where fog develops on bridges and overpasses Weds & Thurs mornings.
  • 2. A marginal fire danger Thursday afternoon will discourage outdoor burning – dry airmass with low relative humidity + winds in the low teens = may cause fire containment problems.

Big Rainmaker Coming This Weekend

  • 1. TIMING: best guess right now arriving Saturday night and departing around lunch Sunday – timing will probably change.
  • 2. RAIN: on average 1″ to 1.5″ – this too may change either way – models diverge in key areas – this reduces forecast confidence.
  • 3. STORMS: again our confidence is shaky here due to model disagreement – the path of the storm favors thunderstorms – but other essential ingredients (instability, lapse rates) are very weak in the models – SPC excluded us from severe weather risk – no risk will be introduced unless and until models develop agreement – more to follow later with new data.
  • 4. SNOW: not for us – our ground will be way too warm – unreceptive to ice – models at this range routinely advertise snow that never happens – even the Euro (above) pulls the colder air columns way too far north of us.

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Weekend Rain, Storms (?), and Just in Case Someone Says Sn*w This Weekend…

A Great Lakes snowstorm may spin a little rain into Middle Tennessee Tuesday – no biggie here – HRRR model below:

Mild days, cold mid week mornings – near freezing – ahead:

A big system will plow through this weekend. Here it is:

  1. Severe threat Saturday will be in the Tex-Ark-La-Miss area.
  2. Rain is likely here late Saturday through Sunday, with a conditional severe threat. Meaning, a few conditions will have to be met to develop severe thunderstorms for us late Saturday into Sunday. Timing may change. Data not super reliable.
  3. “Although [storm-powering] instability is forecast to be relatively weak on Sunday due to a cooler and drier airmass over parts of the Southeast, isolated severe storms could occur if a line of strong storms can become organized.” Storm Prediction Center (SPC), 12/4/23.
  4. “Predictability too low” for severe weather for Sunday, says SPC.
  5. Rain is likely. WPC rainfall estimates for the weekend range from 1″ to 1.5″, with pockets of 2″ around Middle Tennessee.
  6. Euro model above shows blues and pinks indicating frozen precip after the cold front passes. This is a common false flag for accumulating snow:
    • Models struggle with precip type at this range.
    • Usually it’s just rain – as the subfreezing air approaches, dry air overcomes the back edge of the departing system, eliminating the precip – or – the precip pulls away before subfreezing air can catch up. Early December Ohio Valley lows rarely if ever cause us wintry precip problems.
    • The ground will be too warm to hold falling snow or ice.
    • Nothing to see, so far, in the data.

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3 Things: Monday, Tuesday, & Ladies and Gentlemen The Weekend

Skies clearing today. Looks pretty good.

  1. Monday morning. HRRR has a weak rain band tomorrow (Monday) morning. Inconsequential.

2. Tuesday morning. Cold brief rain if the HRRR is right (model cuts off before arrival):


3. Weekend rain. Timing and “accuracy” iffy at this range. A soaker is best bet. Not sure if Saturday or Sunday or both. May involve thunderstorms but no current severe concerns. Notice those pinks and blues as the system moves away – common false flag for wintry precip. More about this system tomorrow.


I redboxed midweek cold mornings – spilled paint on the max wind gust Thursday – drop cloth got the rest of it.


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Rain, Light, Off & On - This Afternoon Into Tonight.

Plan for off and on light showers this afternoon into tonight.

Reasoning. This was the radar as of 2:02 PM:

Rain between Savannah – Hohenwald – Lawrenceburg will get to us later today and tonight according to the HRRR model:

No lightning or other hazards. Rain only.


Earlier models had Sunday rain but now not so much. Still looks dreary and maybe drizzly for the Titans game.


A NBD (no big deal) disturbance expected before/around sunrise Monday, otherwise we resume another dry stretch ending Friday/Saturday next week.


Above/Near freezing mornings mid week. Think many of us will be a few degrees colder than this. Otherwise, mild early Dec.


All this > various alternatives.

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Intern Taking Finals, So You Get The OG

The Intern is on Finals Haitus until 12/8 – so like Fortnite, you get the OG for a while –

Most of the morning rain is gone — below is the radar before 10 AM this morning – we may squeeze out a few more showers this afternoon which would be NBD:

More rain likely Saturday – question is how much – the beloved HRRR model predicts rain for most of Will Co and SE Nashville mid/late morning through lunch hours – below is the precip skid mark showing washout-quality precip juuuust barely to our southeast:

I don’t trust the HRRR model to have the heavy rain axis pinpointed exactly right – other models suggest that heavier rain axis shifts north which would harsh our outside vibes – have rain plans tomorrow fam – I’ll update this on the tweeter tonight with fresh data not obtainable by Amazon – I have just been told that Amazon hosts some of our infrastructure – we love you, zon.

The Colts visit Nissan Sunday noon – HRRR model is not yet in range – but the hourly Euro is and it thinks showers will stay east of us – however! Let’s get the better models in here before deciding to leave ponchos home – more about this tonight and tomorrow – “if you are watching this game you must really love football” yikes.

Here’s the fancy TMI forecast graf, shooooo

We have landed smack dab in the resumption of severe weather szn – we are skating thru it, fam, good job everyone – more uneventful rains like this and we can kick this drought and live a life temporarily unbothered that nature is actively looking to smite the unsuspecting, unaware, and unable to defend themselves – I jinxed nothing, if weather listened to me we’d never have tornadoes.

Medium range weather patterns suggest warmer than normal temps for the next two weeks – don’t ask me about a White Christmas but let me say if you can bet against it, do it.

I posted a chapstick image a few days ago – ppl asked if we were sponsored by Bert’s Bees – LOL neither advertisers nor megalomaniacs nor money gonna get between us and anyone who wants to know what type of cloud violence may approach – new better info distribution system coming soon y’all – more to follow – 🙏🏽

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Drought Improvement, Light Rain Tonight Into Friday AM, Weekend Uncertainty

I’ll start off with good news, and that is that our drought situation has improved. It is not gone, but it has improved.

Davidson has been left with a Moderate Drought, while WillCo. is under a Severe Drought. Better than the Extreme Drought we were dealing with.

The bad news is that over the next 7 days there doesn’t look to be much help with that, although there are some rain chances, so let’s discuss.


Tonight light rain will spread across the area, lasting overnight into Friday morning.

HRRR model (above) shows the majority of the rain falling while most of us are asleep, with only a few showers left to deal with Friday AM rush hour. Overnight, winds could pick up, with gusts up to 35 – 40mph possible, secure Santa and his reindeer before they go flying.

Most of the rain should be gone by Friday lunch; your Friday evening plans, including the Franklin tree lighting look dry.

Saturday low rain chances reemerge.

The HRRR model (above) shows a majority of the rain staying to our SE, but a few stray showers coming in during the morning to lunch hours. The system should pull away in the afternoon, leaving evening plans dry, but confidence is a little shaky in that.

Sunday rain chances exist, but they are low. Models are confused on timing, will have to wait and see on that.

Rainfall totals from this weekend look to be in the 0.25″ – 0.75″ range.

No severe weather chances exist with any of this.

Interested Like It GIF by BH90210

Temps now thru early next week will run around average to slightly above average. We’ll enjoy 60s for high temps this weekend. We’ll stay away from freezing temps until mid next-week.

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Light Rain Overnight Thursday, Low Rain Chances Stick Around For The Weekend

A few locations might reach 32° tonight, but other than that, we’ll take a pause on sub-freezing temps for a little while. Strong southerly flow will help our high temps reach the 60’s Thursday – Sunday.

Before the rain, wind gusts up to 20-25mph will be possible, paired with our drought, fires could spread quickly.

Rain chances return Thursday night.

The HRRR model (above) shows rain moving in ~9-10pm tomorrow, subject to change. The majority of the rain will fall overnight, ending before sunrise Friday. Scattered showers are possible during the day Friday, but those look to be NBD. Rainfall totals look underwhelming and not much help to our drought, only 0.25″ – 0.5″ expected. Although the rain overnight will be fairly light, wind gusts up to 30mph are possible. Secure X-Mas decor.

Low rain chances stick with us throughout the weekend, but still see no reason to alter any outdoor plans just yet.

Fingers crossed Titans game this week is better weather-wise than last weeks.

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Cold + Dryyy, Rain OTW Thursday PM

BNA only got to a high of 43° today, which is the coolest high since March 19th earlier this year. We’ll dip down into the low 20’s again tonight, I bet a few backyards could reach the upper teens.

Although it may not feel like the stereotypical fire weather, with our ongoing drought, low relative humidity, and gusty winds at times, fires could spread quickly.

Rain chances return late Thursday night, shoutout to a low-pressure system. A majority of the rain looks to fall overnight Thursday into the early hours of Friday. “Most of Middle Tennessee can expect between 1/2″ and 3/4″ of rain…” says NWS Nashville. The Euro gives its best guess below

That’s not a drought-buster, but we’ll take anything we can get, little by little. Models start to disagree after Friday, but lower rain chances will stick around for the weekend, I see no reason to alter any outdoor plans quite yet.

Friday thru at least early next week we avoid dropping below freezing. If December being right around the corner makes you think about snow, bad news for you is there isn’t any in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

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Subfreezing Mornings - Fire Danger & Drought - Rain Late Thu Into Friday - & Our Weekend EduGuess

Subfreezing mornings Tue & Weds – hard freeze both mornings – many of us will be colder than that – coldest temps around sunrise – redboxed below are the 24° and 26° lows – then a warmup rest of the week.


Drought continues – severe and extreme for Davidson and Williamson Co – air was so dry this morning we almost tied the Nov 27 record for driest precipitable water – if you squeezed out all the water from the atmosphere you’d only get 0.17″ from it – for reference that is duh-rye.


Fire danger remains – “there will be at least a marginal fire danger tomorrow owing to very low afternoon relative humidity values, but winds probably won’t be strong enough for red flag conditions” (NWS-Nashville) – outdoor burning is never OK in Nashville – looks like Williamson’s ban was lifted, source – either way, burning not a good idea.


Rain expected late Thursday into Friday – “The 13Z NBM [a weather model] gives BNA at 47% chance of measuring 1″ or more during that 24- hour period, and a 76% chance of at least 0.5″.” (NWS-Nashville) – Storms unlikely but due to our proximity to the low pressure center causing the rain, we may squeeze out a few bolts – no concerns about severe weather (hail, wind, tornadoes).

Below is the end of the 90 hour Euro as of midnight Thursdays night – suggests most of the rain will be Friday morning through the afternoon:

Weekend EduGuess – few drive by showers possible – more likely Sunday than Saturday – appears to be a weak system – need better data to determine weekend plans – would not alter any plans now.

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Drizzle Moving Out, Cooler + Dry End to November

Some light drizzle still moving thru the area, just enough to be slightly annoying.

Drizzle will be all gone by Monday morning as we wake up to temps below freezing, with wind chills in the low 20s.

This will be a common theme Monday – Wednesday. Thursday high temps finally warm up to the 60s and they’ll stay there as we enter December.

No meaningful rain chances until Friday, with gusty winds at times this week + dry conditions, fire danger will have to be discussed again.

GIF by Smokey Bear

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