Rain, Few Storms Tonight; Beautiful Weekend; Severe Weather Monday

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Local radar loop includes live severe weather warning

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Make sure you read “Monday’s Severe Weather Concern” at the bottom. 

Tonight – Rain, Few Thunderstorms – 69 at 10 PM

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has us under a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for this evening:

What.  We’re under a “Slight Risk” due to a 15% probability of Damaging Winds (58+ MPH) happening within 25 miles of you:

Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 1.52.02 PM

The line, however, continues to decay as it marches into Middle Tennessee. No real worries with this system.

Rain Totals. Around 0.40″. The cold front creating these storms will quickly slide through after 1 AM, taking these thunderstorms with it.

Friday – Cloudy, Clearing, and Cooler – Wake Up 60 / Afternoon High 74

There is a slight chance there could be a lingering shower before 7 AM, but as we said above, we think the majority of rain will depart in the wee hours of the morning.

Clouds will clear and give way to sunshine by the afternoon.

Saturday A Sunny, Beautiful Day – Wake Up 47 / Afternoon High 81

49° at the start of the race, low to mid 70°s by noon. Light winds 5-10 mph out of the south, very little/no humidity, and a few clouds, all with NO RAIN!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 3.26.02 PM

Monday’s Severe Weather Concern

It’s common for one or two runs of a medium range weather model to suggest a severe weather event 3 or more days away. Usually, those models “correct” themselves, and remove the concern.

Over the past few days, however, output from medium range weather models (Euro, GFS) has been generally, and disturbingly, consistent. This has us concerned about what may happen Monday.

Weather models think that on Sunday, a warm front will lift humid air from the south and into Middle Tennessee, setting us up “for a potent dynamical and convective system to develop Monday.” (NWS-Nashville, Morning Area Forecast Discussion, 4/24/14).

Meanwhile, to our southwest (AR-LA-MS), it appears atmospheric ingredients should be in place to create and sustain supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

These atmospheric dynamics are forecast to shift northeast and into Middle Tennessee; however, by the time those dynamics are expected to get here (Monday night), the nature of the threat might change from a supercellular concern to a squall-line worry. Both modes of severe weather are potentially dangerous, but we would prefer to see a squall line rather than a mature, rotating supercellular environment. A squall line would pack large hail and damaging straight line winds, but it also represents a decreased tornado threat when compared to the aforementioned supercell environment.

“Any way you slice it . . . the potential is there for an outbreak of organized severe weather across the mid state during this Monday through Monday night time frame. . . but it still looks like the best potential for severe weather will be west and southwest of the mid state during this time period.”  (NWS-Nashville, Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion, 4/24/14).

Bottom line: we think severe weather is possible, if not likely, Monday and Monday night. This may include damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. We’re unsure of the exact timing and storm modes, but the potential exists for a significant severe weather event to extend into Middle Tennessee. All this could change, so you need to glue — or perhaps staple — yourself to multiple reliable severe weather sources, especially Sunday and Monday.

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Two Storms (Thu, then Mon) & One Long Race

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Cool & Clear – 49 at 10 PM

Clear skies and a NE wind at 5-10 mph will help cool us down.

The winds will shift from the NE to the SE, preventing temps from dipping into the 30s overnight.

Thursday Warm, Storms Late  – Wake Up 43 / 79 Afternoon High

South winds (10-15 MPH) will deliver warm, moist air to Middle Tennessee. Afternoon clouds are forecast to cover up the morning sun, all ahead of a weakening line of storms that will approach us Thursday night.

SPC Day 2

Although storms to be produced by this squall line should not be severe by the time they reach us, 40-50 mph winds and small hail may still be possible.

The GFS model thinks the rain/storms will start between 7 and 10 pm (Thursday), and end between 1- 4am (Friday).

We expect between 0.25″ and 0.33″ of rain.

FridaySunny, Clear – Wake Up 58 / Afternoon High 78

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

extended

 

The Nashville Rock ‘n’ Roll Marathon & Half Marathon is going to be awesome!

54° at the start of the race, low 70°s by noon, no rain in the forecast.

In addition, humidity will be low!

Bring sunscreen.

Severe Weather On The Way?

This weekend, a powerful storm system is likely to develop in the Great Plains, then push across The Mississippi River by Monday – red area on Saturday, purple area on Sunday, and green area on Monday:

SPC extended

This system is expected to arrive in Middle Tennessee Monday. It may or may not be as powerful as what we’ll see to our west, and a lot can change, but all the ingredients to produce severe weather are expected to be in place. It is too early to say whether there will be Middle Tennessee tornadoes associated with this system, but no responsible forecaster is ruling them out.

This afternoon, the National Weather Service issued this Hazardous Weather Outlook:

A lot can can change (for better or worse) between now and Monday. Stay tuned.

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Rain/Storms Late Thu; Marathon Outlook; Severe Wx Early Next Week?

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

(Editor’s Note: I suppose).

Tonight – Cool & Clear – 57 at 10 PM

North winds 5-10 mph will clear us out and cool us off.

Wednesday – Sunny, Cooler – Wake Up 44 / Afternoon High 70

You may need a light jacket, but otherwise pleasant. Light north winds will prevent us from heating up.

Thursday – Chance Of Thunderstorms Late – Wake Up 44 / Afternoon High 78

After a sunny, warmer day, clouds will increase after sunset, followed by a fast-moving, rain-producing cold front arriving overnight.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has highlighted an area of storms just to our west. We are not currently included:

Screen Shot 2014-04-22 at 3.07.04 PM

Just to help give an idea of what the worst of these storms could be if that 5% area is shifted our way, SPC has this to say:

Storm Prediction Center Apr 22, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook 2014-04-22 15-10-28 2014-04-22 15-11-37

Yeah, I’m not impressed by the storm potential, but we will get about 0.35″ of rain late Thursday/early Friday.

GFS model Thursday 7 pm – Friday 7 am:

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-22 at 2.48.16 PM

56° at the start of the race, low 70°s by noon, no rain in the forecast.

End of the Tornado Drought?

If you’re going to have a drought, make sure it’s a tornado drought.

Nationally, we are on pace for to see the fewest number of tornadoes ever:

torgraph-big

As of April 21, 2014, there have only been 93 tornadoes in 2014. An average spring would have us at 413.

The last fatality from a tornado was December 21, 2013, which was 122 days ago. The record for most consecutive days without a tornado fatality is 220, set June 24, 2012 – January 30, 2013.

We set a record today for the longest start to a year without a tornado fatality. The previous record was April 21, 2002.

But, there’s bad news.

This weekend, a powerful storm system is predicted to develop in the Great Plains – purple area on Saturday, green area on Sunday:

Screen Shot 2014-04-22 at 3.28.10 PM

This system is expected to arrive in Middle Tennessee Sunday or Monday. It may or may not be as powerful as what we’ll see to our west, and a lot can change.

This afternoon, our NWS-Nashville wrote: “Instabilities on Sunday and Monday will be on the increase and strong to severe storms . . . especially on Monday . . . cannot be ruled out.

“We’ll need to keep an eye out for potentially strong to severe weather on Sunday and Monday.”

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Showers Tonight, Clearing Tuesday Afternoon

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Showers, Few Thunderstorms – 62 at 10 PM

Tonight is going to be soggy, with light rain showers turning off and on.

At 4 PM, a band of showers and thunderstorms crossed the Mississippi River into western Tennessee. The (short) wave of energy producing this event is currently in Arkansas and is pushing southeast. We expect these showers to arrive tonight.

The RAP simulated reflectivity has the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms kicking off here in Nashville between 10 and 11 pm, but we may see them sooner than that.

(The above loop is between 10pm and 7am)

spc day one

There will be a few rumbles of thunder overnight, but nothing to worry about. No severe weather is expected.

Tuesday – Rain Early, Then Clearing – Wake Up 44 / Afternoon High 73

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the “wee hours” of Tuesday morning. The chance of rain hangs around until 1 PM.

Chances

Once the rain pushes through, clouds will clear very quickly and we will see partly sunny skies by the end of the day.

This clearing will continue into the night until we are almost completely cloud free.

WednesdaySunny and Cooler – Wake Up 48 / Afternoon High 72

The winds will blow from the north/northeast, which will keep us in the lower 70s under mostly sunny skies.

In addition, we will be quite dry for this time of year!

Enjoy the sun, because another round of rain is on tap for the end of the work week.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

The official NWS forecast for Saturday calls for 56° at the start, 70° around noon, under scattered clouds.

Rain is expected late Thursday/Friday, but for Saturday, a good bit of uncertainty remains. We tweeted this from the NWS Conference call this morning:

This means some weather models think we may see rain Saturday, but the current thinking is that we’ll stay dry. By Wednesday and Thursday, the models will be within 72 hours of the race, and will give us a more reliable idea what to expect. We’ll update you daily here and on Twitter.

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Monday Night Rain; Peek at Music City Marathon Forecast

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

MondayEvening Rain, Few Thunderstorms – Wake Up 54, High 78

We’ll start Monday dry, but afternoon clouds will gather ahead of the next rain event.

Below is the Hi-Res NAM’s Simulated Radar as of 4 PM Monday. It shows scattered rain and thunderstorms beginning around rush hour/dusk Monday evening. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday morning, courtesy of the cold front approaching from our NW.

Lightning will be isolated. No strong or severe thunderstorms are expected.

TuesdayMorning Rain, Then Clearing – Wake Up 59, High 73

Rain will continue during the wee hours Tuesday morning, ending before noon. Rain totals Monday night / Tuesday morning will be modest. Only about 0.20″ total is expected.

Music City Marathon – Start 55, Finish 70

A questionable chance of rain/storms exists Friday, but right now, Saturday seems rain-free. Notice in the GFS, below, that rain is expected to the south.

Remember, this is a more than 72-hours-away forecast, subject to chance, all disclaimers apply.

This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Happy Easter! Thunderstorms Late Monday Night

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Easter Sunday – Sunshine – Afternoon High 80

Really does not get better than this! Perfect day for Easter.

image10

Happy Easter!

A hook echo themed Easter egg from one of my fellow classmates at Mississippi State!

Screen Shot 2014-04-20 at 7.32.56 AM

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Monday – Thunderstorms Late – Wake Up 55 / Afternoon High 78

There could be a few bouts of rain or thunderstorms in the afternoon, but it does not look like we will see anything ’til closer to midnight.

No severe weather is expected with these thunderstorms.

GFS model Monday 1 pm – Tuesday 7 pm:

Tuesday – Chance Of Thunderstorms – Wake Up 60 / Afternoon High 74

Rain/thunderstorms are likely to still be around in Tuesday morning. A cold front will finally slide through Middle Tennessee by the afternoon, cooling us off just a touch and sweeping away the rain and clouds.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-20 at 7.46.44 AM

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Beautiful Through Easter; Thunderstorms Return Monday PM

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Today – Sunshine – Afternoon High 75

Even nicer than yesterday. A bit more wind too.

image10

Easter Sunday – AM Fog; Sunshine & Warmer – Wake Up 50 / Afternoon High 78

Some patchy fog may develop for those of us headed to an early service.

Once the fog mixes out an absolutely beautiful day on tap! Enjoy!

Happy Easter!!!

Monday – Rain Chances Increase – Wake Up 56 / Afternoon High 77

Could see some shower/thunderstorms during the afternoon Monday. However, it does look like the cold front approaching won’t set off thunderstorms until after midnight for Middle Tennessee. Will see what the models say about this tomorrow.

No severe weather is expected with these thunderstorms.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-19 at 7.57.11 AM

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Behold, Weather Befitting Easter Weekend!

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Saturday – Sunshine – Wake Up 49 / Afternoon High 75

We continue to warm. We’re hoping garden temps are here to say.

Easter Sunday – Sunshine & Warmer – Wake Up 50 / Afternoon High 78

We may see patchy fog before sunrise; otherwise, expect a stunning Easter Sunday.

(Editor’s Note: There’s a lack of good Easter gifs on the web. That’ll have to do.)

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-18 at 3.56.33 PM

Rain is expected Monday/Tuesday of next week, with maybe a few thunderstorms. It won’t be a frog strangler (maybe 0.25″ to 0.50″ are expected), and severe weather isn’t expected.

Warm weather will continue into next week. The Climate Prediction Center gives us a 40% chance of seeing above average temps April 24 – 28:

610temp.new

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Three Glorious Days

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Increasing Clouds — 56 at 10 PM

Finally, an evening you can survive without a jacket. (Editor’s Note: I’ll be wearing one. Hate the cold).

Good Friday – Mostly Cloudy, Slight Chance of Rain – Wake Up 47 / Afternoon High 69

A developing low will be pounding much of the Gulf Coast. Check out the Hi-Res NAM model, Friday 6 am – 3 pm:

Some of that might make it far enough north and bug us, but probably not. It may not even rain at all on our Good Friday. We will see. Officially, our NWS has us down for 0.02″ of rain.

Saturday – Sunshine & Warmer – Wake Up 49 / Afternoon High 75

Grandma: Forgive my slang. Ballin’ means your grandchildren’s ballgames will happen Saturday.

Don’t forget your SPF 85!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-17 at 3.23.54 PM

Rain is expected Monday/Tuesday of next week, with maybe a few thunderstorms. Severe weather? We quote the NWS, below:

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-04-17 15-22-01 2014-04-17 15-22-12

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Chance Of Frost Tomorrow Morning…Then We Warm Up!

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Spring was going so well for us, until this week. A good illustration:

Tonight – Clear & Cold 40 at 10 PM

We are going to have another cold night. Clear skies mean we are not insulated and will cool rapidly.

This rapid cooling is called “radiational cooling.” This will allow for frost to begin to form late tonight.

This frost will mostly be the kind that forms on elevated surfaces.

You might need your ice scraper!

Thursday – Frost Advisory Early, Then Sunny – Wake Up 38 / Afternoon High 67

There will be a Frost Advisory for your morning commute.

frost advisory

We will remain clear all day. With south winds, we’ll warm up nicely.
Clouds will move in as we get close to the evening. These clouds will keep us insulated, preventing a cold Friday morning.
FridaySmall Chance Of Rain & Warming Up – Wake Up 45 / Afternoon High 68

There will be a 30% chance for rain between 8 am & 8 pm.

The GFS predicts a very small amount of rain falling in and around Nashville.

chance for rain

Only 0.04″ of rain is expected Friday — that’s not nearly enough to rain out any outdoor activities.

The weekend looks awesome!

BTW, we missed the Blood Moon Monday night due to cloud cover. In case you haven’t seen it, here’s a photo of it taken in Texas:

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.