Sunday: 1″+ Rain, Wintry Shenanigans Possible Late / Early Monday

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

 

Saturday Clouds Take Over High 66

We’ll remain dry through the daylight hours. A chance of rain arrives after dark, but we think it’ll hold off until midnight or the wee hours of Sunday morning.

SundayRain; Wintry Shenanigans Late? – AM Low 50, PM High 55, Overnight Low 35

The Hi-Res NAM predicts a rain ETA of 3 AM:

As you can see, that’s a lot of rain. A few thunderstorms may be mixed in, but we aren’t concerned about any strong/severe storms.

While it’s raining, we’ll be sitting beneath a long west to east boundary between warm/wet air and colder/drier air. The cold air will eventually win this battle, then send us a cold wind which will keep our temps in the mid/upper 50s:

Expect over 1″ of rain Sunday:

Late Sunday night, we’ll have to watch for wintry precip. From our NWS at 5:05 AM this morning:

This looks like Act 12 of the Play: Ice and Snow Juuuuust Baaaaaarely Missing You to the North.

We* should be OK. We don’t think any wintry precip will stick as long as the forecast low temp in Nashville is 35 and the forecast low dew point stays at 33 (too warm to “wet bulb” our way to snow).

*except for poor Joelton, land of wooly mammoths, Superman villains, and the Secret Rebel Base.

Notice the yellow-underlined text above. A wobble south could change things, so keep an eye on it. For example, the Hi-Res NAM draws the freezing line south about 40 miles, putting us all in the “wintry mix” zone. That’s not the current forecast, but it may turn out to be right. We shall see.

This website is a supplement to content delivered @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Rain Tonight, More Rain Very Late Saturday Night & Sunday

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Some Rain – 10 PM 57

The HRRR predicts an hour-long shower to fly by around 7PM – 8PM tonight. Rain totals will be small and no lightning is expected. Undeterred, I’m taking my son to see LSU at @VandyBaseball tonight.

After gusting as high as 32 mph today, the SW wind should die down after dark.

SaturdayDecreasing Sun, but Dry; Rain Likely Very Late – AM Low 46, PM High 67

Partly sunny skies in the morning will cloud up by the evening. Evening rain is possible, but we’ll most likely see it around midnight and into the wee hours Sunday morning.

Sunday – AM T’Storm Possible, Almost 1″ Rain – AM Low 52, PM High 55

Most of the rain should fall Sunday morning:

The timing on this isn’t rock-solid, but right now most of the models suggest most of the rain will fall Sunday morning. A few thunderstorms may mix in, but right now there are no strong/severe thunderstorm concerns.

Some showers may linger into the afternoon. By then, your soccer or baseball practices will be rained out. Some drizzle could hang around Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will turn around and start blowing from the NE, then N, sending in colder temps.

The Weather Prediction Center has us down for under 1″ of rain Sunday. Our NWS agrees, forecasting 0.82″ total.

Some of the models suggest that as the rain pulls east Sunday night, the temps might fall enough to drop a few snowflakes. If it happens (a big IF), anything that falls will be light and of no concern. Melting will happen fast with Monday’s high of 46.

Extended NWS Forecast

Nice Friday; Rain Likely Saturday Night/Sunday

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

TonightClear & Comfortable – Upper 50°s

Today’s temps have been between 5° and 10° below normal for Mid-March. Friday, temps will be 5° to 10° above normal.

FridayBreezy/Windy, Partly Sunny, Increasing Clouds Late – AM Low 37°, PM High 67°

Clouds will spread across Middle TN Friday night. We aren’t sure if they’ll bring any rain, but if they do, it’ll be light.

SaturdayCloudy, Chance of Rain; Rain Likely After Dark – AM Low 46°, PM High 66°

A low pressure center will keep storms comfortably far off to our SW.

Saturday will be overcast. Weather models predict a few very light showers in Middle TN during the day. Any rainfall would not be enough to ruin outdoor plans.

Rain is likely Saturday night. If you’re planning on going out after dark, you’ll probably need rain gear.

SundayRain Likely – AM Low 45°, PM High 55°

GFS Simulated Radar as of 7 AM:

The Euro and NAM models are just as rainy. Those models keep the rain going almost all day. Sunday looks like a washout.

There’s a remote chance any lingering showers will ride over cold air late early Monday morning, resulting in a few flakes; however, there are no accumulation concerns.

This site supplements information posted on Twitter @NashSevereWx. Thanks for reading!

Cold Tonight, Warmer Thu-Fri, Soggy Weekend

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

I feel like this accurately summarizes our weather from the past three days:

Tonight/OvernightFree Falling – Overnight Low: 27°

The Wind Advisory expires at sundown, but temps will continue to crash. We will get as low as 27°, with wind chills in the low 20°s overnight.

ThursdayColder & Clear – AM Low 27°, PM High 47°

Aside from the temps, it’ll be a pretty nice day. Sunny & clear.

FridayMostly Sunny & Warmer – AM Low 35°, PM High 66°

The Weekend: Rainy : (

Weekend Rain Totals: Around 1″

This website supplements our Twitter feed @NashSevereWx.

Winter: Not Over Yet

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tuesday Night – Cooler, Increasing Clouds, & Little Rain

As you can see on the radar above and the water vapor imagery below, rain will arrive after midnight tonight.

Hi-Res NAM model Wednesday Midnight – 6 AM:

Wednesday – *Wind Advisory* & Declining Temps  Morning Low 56 / Afternoon High 56

Our NWS has issued a Wind Advisory, effective from 7 AM to 7 PM Wednesday, for winds 20 to 30 mph sustained, with gusts of 35 mph possible. 

Tie down loose objects and children. Also secure your 88 year old, 88 pound aunt.

Now let’s discuss the temperatures. They’ll be . . .

. . . falling steadily. Temps won’t increase until we hit 25° sometime early Thursday morning. Wind chills will dip below freezing Wednesday night at 10 PM.

Winter ain’t over till it’s over.

Rain (and maybe a weak thunderstorm) will be here Wednesday morning, but it should not last too long into the afternoon. We expect under 0.25” of rain.

Hi-Res NAM model, Wednesday 6 AM to 3 PM:

Thursday – Sunny & Chilly  Morning Low 25 / Afternoon High 44

I guess we can be happy the sun will be out. I hope this will cheer you up:

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-03-11 at 3.44.14 PM

Additional information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Honestly Terrible: “The Bachelor” Themed Forecast

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 48 Hours (auto-updating)

There’s a good weather forecast in here, but if you choose to continue reading, you will probably end up dumber. For that, I apologize. In fact, you should stop reading. You’re better off reading this SEC Basketball Tournament Preview.

I realize very few of you are watching The Bachelor, or even know tonight is the not-even-narrowly-anticipated season finale. If you’ve not heard of it, Jimmy Kimmel has a good synopsis:

I know of only one other dude watching this show. For the record, I am not worried about losing my Man Card, which was previously confiscated when I declared Love Actually to be a better movie than The Usual Suspects.

TodayLucy, a Free Spirit, Enjoyed Today Without a Care in the World! – 9 PM 57

Just Like Lucy, the nice weather won’t be around too much longer.

TuesdayAMAZING! – AM Low 47, PM High 73

The morning will be amazing. Your amazing ride to school or work will be amazing. It will be amazing how amazing the weather will be. Your lunch will be particularly amazing, during which you will have amazing yet meaningless conversation. By the end of the day, you will run out of anything to say, so you’ll just keep repeating how everything around you is so amazing, and that will be so amazing.

As long as you are there for the right reasons.

Honestly.

Tuesday Night/Wednesday“He’s Hot, But Looks Can Fade” – AM Low 53, PM High 55

It was nice and warm Sunday and Monday, and Tuesday looks great, but on Wednesday comes harsh reality.

After Andi spent a night in the Fantasy Suite (an opportunity to “talk”), Andi told millions she closed her eyes and played dead rather than listen to Juan Pablo talk more about himself and his dates with other women.

Also cold: after midnight Tuesday night & into Wednesday morning, a cold front will push a few non-severe thunderstorms and rain through. Temps will drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will also bring a 30+ mph wind, sending wind chills below freezing Wednesday night.

The wind will cut like:

“His eyes are kind of beady, aren’t they? Little weird teddy-bear button eyes, but like a mangy teddy bear you find at a garage sale that no one wants anymore.”

Rain should linger through the day, then gradually clear out. I don’t think Wednesday night soccer practice . . .

. . . will happen. Expect a rain out. It’ll be a little cold. Amazingly cold, even, Honestly.

ThursdayClearing, but Colder – AM Low 25, PM High 48

Friday and Saturday’s high is 61. By Sunday, another weak system will approach, with only a slight chance of rain.

Next week, we expect colder than normal temps (normal temps for this time of year: lows in the mid 30s-40, Highs 60-65).

(Prediction: Juan Pablo chooses Camilla).

Midweek Shenanigans Ruining an Otherwise Beautiful Week

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Sunday – Sunny & Cool

This morning’s cold front cooled us off and cleared us out.

Sunny skies!

Monday – Mostly Sunny  Morning Low 40 / Afternoon High 68

Awesome weather. They just heard about it…

Tuesday – Mostly Sunny   Morning Low 46 / Afternoon High 74

More awesome weather. Winds will be increasing just a touch through the day.

And then overnight. . .

Cold front and rain!

GFS model Tuesday 7 pm – Wednesday 7 pm:

Insufficient moisture from the Gulf of Mexico means a few thunderstorms . . .

. . . but no severe weather Tuesday night.

Temps will drop Wednesday. We can’t rule out rain/snow mix Wednesday night. Temps aloft will be cold enough; however, surface temps are forecast to be too warm for snow. In a battle of rain vs. snow, rain is currently the heavy favorite.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

GFS Temperature anomaly map (showing we’ll be much colder than normal) Thursday 7 am:

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_33

That’s almost 20 degrees below normal. We are not forecast to see average/above average temps again until the weekend.

Additional information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Spring Forward! Overnight Chance of Rain; Cooler Tomorrow

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Saturday Night – Rain Chance Late

If you want to be on time for church tomorrow, read this:

image16

(Editor’s Note: Attention! Weather Nerds! Remember to subtract 5 from Zulu time!)

HRRR model Saturday 7 pm – Sunday 4 am shows a few light showers gliding by (I’m pretty sure I got that right with the time change…):

Nothing serious, just a few showers along a cold front coming through.

Sunday – Clearing  Morning Low 39 / Afternoon High 55

A little dip in the temps thanks to the early morning cold front. We’ll begin the day mostly cloudy, but that’ll change as clouds move on and mostly clear skies take over.

Monday – Sunshine   Morning Low 40 / Afternoon High 68

Don’t pretend you’re not watching…

Awesome! Tuesday too!

(Editor’s Note: The Intern chose this GIF. We’re from different generations, so I assume it’s cool. I don’t know. I’m too old.)

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-03-08 at 3.05.25 PM

We expect a decent blast of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday courtesy of an impressive cold front.

Unseasonably cool temps arrive Wednesday. By Thursday, look for an AM Low 33, PM High 51.

According to the GFS model, March 13 – 18 will be about 4 degrees colder than normal:

gefs_t2anom_by5_noram_41

Additional information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Warmth! (But Watch Out For Frosting On The Glass)

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto updating)

Soooo, Today Was Pretty Nice!

We chose 64° today. That was smart.

SaturdayIncreasing Clouds; Chance of Rain Late – AM Low 38, PM High 67

Rain chances begin at 6 PM Saturday, and run through 9 AM Sunday morning. Some models keep us dry, but I think we’ll see a few sprinkles — not enough to rain anything out.

Here’s the GFS Saturday night at Midnight. Not too wet:

Don’t forget to Spring Forward Saturday night:

SundayAM Rain Clears; Smidge Cooler, but the Sun Returns! – AM Low 40, PM High 56

The cold front will have arrived early Sunday morning, spreading some Pacific/Canadian air into Middle Tennessee. That’ll take us out of the mid 60°s, but don’t worry, check out Monday and Tuesday:

Don’t get excited.

Spring is not yet officially here.

Keep your head up, watch where you’re going, unlike this guy:

Always notice the frosting on the glass, y’all.

At the end of this afternoon’s forecast discussion, our NWS said this:

Warm temperatures will contiue on Tuesday, but another cold front will move through Tuesday night, knocking highs down for Wednesday into the 50°s. There’s a good chance of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday with possible rain mixing with snow Wednesday night.

Neither the GFS nor Euro model has it snowing here Wednesday night, and even if it did, a weather model predicting snow 126 hours away isn’t exactly reliable. It’s close enough to snow that it’s worth talking about, but the odds of snow are very slim.

It’s just another reminder: it’s not spring yet.

Additional information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Pretty Nice Weekend (+ Stuff About a Warm Winter!!!! & El Nino)

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

It’s been a brutal winter across the eastern half of the USA, but the rest of the globe? Not half bad!

According to NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration), January 2014 was the 4th warmest on record and the warmest since 2007 globally. The map below shows above normal (red), below normal (blue). If you would like to see the full report here is the link.

201401

Notice Alaska: they’ve had a mild winter. To oversimplify: all the cold winter air normally in Alaska was evicted, and sent to the eastern half of the US. Thanks alot, Alaska!

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Thursday Night – Decreasing Clouds

The system causing clouds and rain to our south will swing eastward, leaving nothing but sunshine behind!

Friday – Sunny  Morning Low 33 / Afternoon High 59

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-03-06 15-51-25 2014-03-06 15-52-37

Saturday – Mostly Cloudy   Morning Low 39 / Afternoon High 64

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-03-06 15-52-54 2014-03-06 15-54-18

We’ll slowly cloud up. A weak cold front will arrive late Saturday night, but it won’t have a lot a moisture to work with. So, maybe a light shower late. No worries.

Don’t forget before you go to sleep!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-03-06 at 3.44.25 PM

The Climate Prediction Center still expects below average temps for the middle to end of next week (March 12-16) …

610temp.new

… and, equal chances for above or below average precip (March 12-16):

610prcp.new

Looking even further out in time (March 14-20), you’ll see even more cooler temps …

814temp.new

… with below-average rainfall (March 14-20):

814prcp.new

Y’all hear about that El Niño Watch posted today by Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society?  That was a mouthful…

(Editor’s Note: If you heard about it, what is wrong with you? Live! Live your life!)

What does El Niño mean?

Literally, “El Nino” means a lot of things, but in this context, it means “The Little One.”

El Nino means water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator will be warmer. Right now, Pacific Ocean waters around the equator are near average.

Uhhh, So What?

Not all El Niños are created equally. Truthfully, we still don’t fully understand it.

Here’s what we know it means:

Fewer, weaker, hurricanes, and tropical systems in the Atlantic basin. However, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 that hit Miami (and the 4 hurricanes that that struck Florida in 2004) all occurred in an El Niño year. 2004 was during a weaker El Niño.

Here in Middle Tennessee, it could mean a more active wetter weather pattern.

NinoImpacts_0

So, yeah. El Nino, everybody!

Additional information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.