So far, so good today. Clouds have continued to increase throughout the afternoon, but so far we have had a nice dry day. Expect for clouds to continue to increase as we head into the evening hours. You may want to bring a light jacket with you tonight if you have any outdoor plans as temps will fall into the 60s by 8 PM.
A total of 1.06″ fell in the official rain can at BNA from yesterday’s rain.
Local CoCoRaHS observer totals in Davidson County:
And Williamson County:
Radar Estimated Storm Total Rainfall, which isn’t that reliable for raw totals, but it has a good idea of who got the most rain. Green is less than 1″ and yellow is more than 1″:
Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible through Sunday afternoon. The severe weather threat will be next to nothing.
Our pattern will be to trend cooler through the week, especially towards next weekend. Uncertainty exists about a potential rain/storm maker on Wednesday.
Let’s start by saying it’s very probably going to rain this weekend. And very probably a lot.
Thru Sunday night, the Euro model predicts 0.5″ to 0.7″, which is more than enough to rain out most anything. The GFS model is running higher totals, between 1.0″ and 1.1″. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has even more, taking the totals closer to 2″.
Let’s see what the latest GFS has to show for more storms into the weekend:
NWS Nashville is in close agreement with this scenario, which means afternoon thunderstorms are possible every day through Saturday. By Sunday, an approaching cold front will significantly increase rain and storm opportunities. Most of us could see 0.5″ of total rain, with higher amounts around 1.25″+ definitely possible.
Latest HRRR Model for Today
NWS Nashville is in close agreement with this scenario, which means afternoon thunderstorms are possible every day through Saturday. By Sunday, an approaching cold front will significantly increase rain and storm opportunities. Most of us could see 0.5″ of total rain, with higher amounts around 1.25″+ definitely possible.
What about severe weather? A strong storm or two over the course of the next several days isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats, but definitely nothing like the Central Plains is seeing today (potential severe weather outbreak).
The good news for Sunday and beyond…temperatures in the afternoon next week will sink back into the 70s! This is more seasonable and provides us some relief, as we aren’t even into summer quite yet.
Expect for tomorrow to be a repeat of today with mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 80s, and gusty winds at times.
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After our fairly dry stretch of days, we look to fall back into a somewhat wet pattern starting late Thursday night. The latest run of the GFS, shown below, displays these shower chances through the weekend.
