Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Tonight – Isolated Storms Ongoing

Just like yesterday, Horizontal Convective Rolls are streaming west this afternoon, Crazy Ivan Style, and setting of a few isolated showers.

After dark these should start to die off, yielding to a hot and muggy night. read more

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Tonight – Pop Up Rain?

Horizontal Convective Rolls are streaming west this afternoon, Crazy Ivan Style, and setting of a few isolated showers. As I write, one’s already making rain in Bellevue. read more

Current Radar

We are going to continue in this summer-like pattern today. Friday looks mostly sunny with the same high temperature as yesterday of 95°.

An upper level weak trough left some energy behind over us and the 700 mb has vertical velocity potential overhead. What this means is there will be a chance of showers with a possible thunderstorm this afternoon. Non severe nor will it be a washout, but some could pop-up briefly. When looking at the HRRR model below you can really see the clockwise flow of the surface high pressure overhead. read more

Current Radar

Thursday is starting off warm and muggy, but with plenty of sunshine. This will be the case for much of the day, as high pressure to our northeast keeps us in a generally pleasant, but summer-like pattern. Up in the jet stream, we have been dominated by a ridge, or just an extra extra large high pressure over the eastern U.S. Ridges aloft generally keep our weather on the hot and dry side. This has and will continue to be the case for the short term. But, there are a few small dips in the jet stream, despite the ridging pattern we have in place. These are called shortwaves, or more commonly here, disturbances. A shortwave is kind of like a mini low pressure system. They usually carry enough energy to produce rain and thunderstorms at the surface, even if there is not a surface low pressure in place. When a shortwave passes near us, that bumps up our chances for rain a bit. That’ll be the case today, as a one of these disturbances passes to our south and east: 

This could bring us some isolated showers and maybe a weak storm this afternoon and early this evening. Our high will be 93° today, so the extra heat of the afternoon could help to get some of those showers going. However, chances don’t look overly impressive, with the position of that disturbance being a bit too far east and south. The HRRR is picking up on some rain throughout the afternoon in our area, but more to the southeast of Nashville: 

As of 5 PM, there are a few showers and storms to our north on radar. They’re tiny, but you may get wet briefly if you’re out and about this evening. 

Tonight, temperatures will drop to 71° under mostly clear skies and muggy conditions. As we begin the holiday weekend on Friday, we’ll see a very similar situation to today. The morning hours will be warm & muggy, with the afternoon being plain ol’ hot. Friday’s high is also 93° and we’ll keep another small rain chance in for the afternoon hours. Another disturbance will be passing more to our south. Again, it looks like the bulk of the activity will miss us, but there is chance a lone shower drifts our way. 

We’ll keep the hot and muggy with a small chance of rain pattern for the weekend, as well. Highs will be in the low to mid 90°s, with overnight lows near 70°. 

Extended….

Really Extended….

We could see our first potent cold front of the season by late next week. Stay tuned. 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here. read more

This morning, the HRRR predicted a few showers this afternoon. We’ve seen a few of those, but only west of 65. Current radar:

So, not ruling out a stray shower as the sun goes down. No rain is expected overnight. read more

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 86° by 7 PM 

SUNSET: 7:15 PM

It’ll be a warm, somewhat muggy evening.

Any showers that pop-up during the heat of the afternoon should fizzle as we approach sunset:

Overnight lows will only drop to near 70°, under mostly clear skies. read more

Current Radar

Tuesday – Warming Up High: 92°

(I don’t know why I cannot stop laughing at this gif of Tina Fey.)

Can’t rule out a stray shower during the afternoon hours mainly between 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM.

It will not be a washout so stick with your plans for the afternoon and evening! read more

Current Observations and Radar

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Today 81° Rain Driving By

Today isn’t looking like a washout, at least not right now.

We are between two converging features: a weak surface front coming from our NW, and an upper level low coming from the S. read more

Current Radar

Tonight – Looks Pretty Good

We think the rain should stay east of us tonight, but we are not completely ruling it out.

HRRR supports the Looks Pretty Good Tonight thinking:

Sunday 84° Another Day of Scattered Showers/Thunderstorms

Rain chances remain higher Sunday vs. today. An arriving upper level low pressure feature + a shortwave from the Mississippi Valley = a pretty decent chance of at least a little rain, maybe more. We’re hoping most of the rain will stay east of us. Rain is most likely between lunch and dinner. read more

Current Radar

The chill in the air is a thing of the past.

Saturday 89° It May Rain After Noon 

An arriving area of low pressure aloft, despite weak high pressure at the surface, means rain chances are back.

Without an obvious rain-initiating, trackable feature, timing/ETA/amounts are difficult. Our best thinking is: read more