The chill in the air is a thing of the past.
Saturday 89° It May Rain After Noon
An arriving area of low pressure aloft, despite weak high pressure at the surface, means rain chances are back.
Without an obvious rain-initiating, trackable feature, timing/ETA/amounts are difficult. Our best thinking is:
ETA: The GFS and Euro models light us up with a few showers after noon. The WRF-HRW models agree, preferring mid/late afternoon. I think that makes the most sense. It’ll be coming from the south.
How Much: not much; rain-outs unlikely. Models advertise scattered showers, but not a big, organized system. I don’t think everyone will see rain. Maybe only a few will. Given high humidity, you may welcome a shower.
Storms? Possible, but organized strong/severe weather isn’t forecast. Just garden-variety thunderstorms.
Sunday 86° Better Chance of Rain
Upper level low pressure should dominate in the morning and afternoon, so rain is a bit more likely. Scattered showers should be ongoing across all of Middle Tennessee. Temps will be down a bit because of increased cloud cover, but high humidity will remain.
NWS expects about 0.10″ of rain. That’s not a continuous rain, and it shouldn’t rain everything out, but Saturday looks to be the better weather day. Rain should end by the evening.
Again, garden-variety (non-severe) thunderstorms are possible.
Next week looks like typical-August: hot, humid,
What About Erika?
It still looks like it’ll drive right up Florida as a tropical storm, or (more unlikely) a weak Cat 1 hurricane. We really don’t know.
The current official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:
Notice the outer white lines — by Wednesday, it could be anywhere from Pensacola to pretty far east into the Atlantic. The big models vary wildly. If it ends up taking that western track, its remnants could be a rain producer for us at the end of next week.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs