Current Observations and Radar
Today 81° Rain Driving By
Today isn’t looking like a washout, at least not right now.
We are between two converging features: a weak surface front coming from our NW, and an upper level low coming from the S.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low. Watch it spin in Alabama, and move north.
We think the upper low from Alabama will spin closer to the plateau, driving most of the rain east of us, only spreading us a little rain.
Meanwhile, the surface front to our west is so weak, it alone isn’t able to rain us out, but it could supply a few showers.
Together, these features provide the best chance of rain we’ve had in a week, but it’s not looking like a big rainmaker. Watch how the HRRR deals with it:
Looks like the heaviest rain will stay east of us, and we’ll see less than 0.10″. If we’re at all wrong about that, and the upper low takes a slightly different path than the one we think, it may mean more rain. Obviously, if you have the fortune/misfortune of sitting underneath a stronger cell, you see more rain. We’ll be updating you on Twitter throughout the day @NashSevereWx.
Thunderstorms are possible, but an organized, meaningful strong thunderstorm event is not expected. However, NWS cautions that “it is August, so one or two of these storms could become strong this afternoon.”
The high temp of only 81° has to do with the cloud cover. It’s still going to be very humid.
Monday 87° Typical August
That upper level low will roll away, and high pressure will rebuild. This’ll dry us up and set in place what NWS calls “a very stagnant” weather pattern this week:
Dewpoints just high enough to support an isolated thunderstorm each afternoon.
What About Erika?
NWS-Nashville isn’t even talking about it anymore. It’s falling apart as a tropical system. NHC is referring to Erika as the “Remnants of Erika.”
For more details, see the National Hurricane Center’s website.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs