Much cooler today. Tuesday, a warm front lifts in making things warmer and more humid.
Next rain and/or storm event is Wednesday – Thursday.
Timing. A few models put in rain/storms here Weds morning. But I think the most likely ETA for rain is Weds afternoon and night. ETD Thursday after lunch or so, tho we may see drizzlers linger into Thu late afternoon/evening.
NWS Nashville said in their morning AFD.
This is a true "cold" front for early summer and afternoon high temperatures today will be noticeable cooler as only in the 70s to around 80.
This is a good thing. It’s been super hot lately. This cool change will do us some good. From hot and dust to cool and musty.
Highest heat and humidity combo of the spring expected today. High temps in the shade 93° with dewpoints 66° to 68°.
The May 21 record high is 94° (1941). We may tie it.
Rain/Storms are unlikely. A few model runs had storms popping up late this afternoon / early tonight, but most models think not. It’s totally possible tho so keep an eye on it.
Models disagree about today. It’s causing forecast headaches.
The HRRR model has storms missing you today and tonight.
The Euro has storms coming in here late afternoon/early tonight.
Which is “right?” Great question! Who knows? When “reliable” tools contradict the lesson isn’t “pick one,” it’s “we don’t really know.”
What: weakening storms, probs just rain. When: early evening/before midnight. Where: coming from the west and weakening along the way. Hazards: if it’s storm and not rain then lightning, low probability straight line winds, hail; no tornado concern. Confidence level: I’m always nervous on these days saying it won’t rain this afternoon but here we are. Why: this is not a theology blog. Discussion: keep reading.
