First things first, today will be beautiful. Whole lot of sun, high temps in the low 70’s, won’t feel like the last day of February.
The majority of Wednesday will be really nice. We’ll make a run at the record high of 81° during the day. Clouds will gradually increase throughout the day.
Probability wise we are outlooked with a:
- 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles
- 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds (58mph+) and severe hail (1″+ in diameter) within 25 miles
The main concern Wednesday night will be damaging winds and flash flooding. Rainfall amounts look to be 1-2″, with some locally higher amounts possible.
Main time frame for severe weather Wednesday PM looks to be 8-10pm, this is not set in stone though. You should still plan to sleep with multiple ways to wake up if a warning is issued for you (i.e weather radio, wake-me-up app). Even after the strongest storms push through, flash flooding will still be possible with rain.
Round Two: Thursday PM
A warm front will lift north at some point Thursday PM, bringing our second chance of severe weather with it. Models aren’t agreeing on it the best quite yet, so I’m going to refrain from including any model loop or specific timeframe.
The main threats will again be damaging straight-line winds and flash flooding, but large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Round 3: Early Friday AM
Last but certainty not least, a cold front will push through bringing with it some severe chances.
With this still being several days out, it’s too early to try to nail down a timeframe. Just know Friday AM, things could get rough and you need to have several ways to get weather info.
After all is said and done, rainfall totals from the three events could add up to 3-5″. This may cause flash flooding in some spots, and some creeks and rivers may start to swell.
Good news is, your Friday evening and rest of the weekend look dry. Temperatures will be closer to where they ought to be for this time of the year.
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs